2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3503611 16-Jun-2026 21:48

gzt:
cddt: ANZ truckometer reports that in the three months March - May, light traffic volumes dropped 4.2% and heavy traffic volumes dropped 2.2% (all seasonally adjusted). As I asserted earlier in this thread, fuel use is surprisingly inelastic... people who were speculating there would be drops of 20% were wildly optimistic.

Dunno how this data is composed. I suspect it's road samples at fixed points and probably captures relatively inelastic typical commuting as well.

Anecdotally people are driving less discretionary kms. 20% less domestic discretionary kms, dunno, could be.

The ANZ Truckometer has been around for nearly twenty years and is a highly respected measure & highly reliable predictor of economic activity. The data is collected via vehicle sensors embedded at key points in the road network. The sensors are managed by the NZTA / Waka Kotahi, who have released the data publicly every month since 2008.

There is an interesting article on it here: https://data.govt.nz/catalogue-guide/showcase/anz-truckometer

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#3503620 16-Jun-2026 23:09

It is well known and respected. The purpose is to provide an indicator of economic activity now, and as a likely predictor of economic activity in the six months ahead. The link provides no information about traffic sample points or times.

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#3503680 17-Jun-2026 09:37

gzt: ]
Dunno how this data is composed. I suspect it's road samples at fixed points and probably captures relatively inelastic typical commuting as well.

Anecdotally people are driving less discretionary kms. 20% less domestic discretionary kms, dunno, could be.

the Ministry of Transport have been quietly running a weekly dashboard that looks at traffic and Public transport , overall the changes to travel are fairly minimal, 5% differences at most...

The most interesting is a 22% fall in heavy vehicle milage, - they will be taking this from the electronic RUC providers like E-ROAD, and this will be helping to keep transport costs down, Transport companies will be combining loads and running fuller and heavier trucks,

https://hormuz-458b0b.gitlab.io/

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#3503684 17-Jun-2026 09:49

wellygary:

the Ministry of Transport have been quietly running a weekly dashboard that looks at traffic and Public transport , overall the changes to travel are fairly minimal, 5% differences at most...

The most interesting is a 22% fall in heavy vehicle milage, - they will be taking this from the electronic RUC providers like E-ROAD, and this will be helping to keep transport costs down, Transport companies will be combining loads and running fuller and heavier trucks,

https://hormuz-458b0b.gitlab.io/

"These plots show the rolling mean of total vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) of heavy commercial vehicles as represented in the CompassIoT data (around 90% of the heavy fleet). Full trip VKT tallied if it includes travel within any of 5 key freight areas: Auckland, Wellington City, Christchurch City, Taupo District, Horowhenua District territorial authorities."

A couple of problems with that. First, it's against a February baseline, and doesn't consider seasonality. Second, it's considering only certain geographic areas - why? Third, does CompassIoT really track 90% of the heavy vehicle fleet, or is this a heavily massaged number for marketing purposes?

On the same page it reports "Heavy vehicle counts - year on year" as +1%, but also describes this as against a February baseline - so which is it? Measured against last year or 9-22 Feb? I'm surprised heavy vehicle counts can be up 1% while heavy VKT can be down 22% - this doesn't pass the "sniff test" and strongly suggests something has gone wrong somewhere in the preparation and analysis of the data.

Don't get me wrong, I like the transparency and availability of this information, but the presentation lacks the rigorous analysis required to draw any conclusions.

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#3503691 17-Jun-2026 10:05

Am enjoying the lower fuel prices for now, but timing is everything and it is noted that the latest 'victory' happened just before the FIFA World Cup began in the US instead of the weekly Fridays before markets closed, i.e., it wouldn’t be a good look if the host nation was bombing the visitor's hospitals and home infrastructures.

Conveniently, victory also allowed some shipping to be cleared from the Gulf, thus a collective sigh of relief from the world and all the fans are joyful and the World Cup is a big, beautiful success and a huge feather sits in the red maga hat, for now.

However…Israel which started this war has declared it won’t abide by this American agreement and is continuing its occupation of the neighbours lands, which is unacceptable to Iran. Two parties to the war have reached an agreement but minus the acceptance from the prime instigator of the war who continues to declare they have the right to attack at any time. Therefore, this is a tactical pause, not an end.

Hope my predictions are entirely wrong.

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#3503695 17-Jun-2026 10:13

Eva888:

Hope my predictions are entirely wrong.

We all do, but I agree there are too many red flags right now for any rational confidence. Not the least of which is that if Trump said the sky was blue I'd have to go outside to check.

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#3503698 17-Jun-2026 10:23

SaltyNZ:

Eva888:

Hope my predictions are entirely wrong.

We all do, but I agree there are too many red flags right now for any rational confidence. Not the least of which is that if Trump said the sky was blue I'd have to go outside to check.

Oil futures are tumbling as professional gamblers (oil futures market) are pricing the war out.

Markets adapt whereas pessimistic forecasts tend to be based on zero adaptation. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/New-Estimates-Challenge-Assumptions-About-Lost-Gulf-Oil-Supply.html

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#3503713 17-Jun-2026 11:00

johno1234:

Oil futures are tumbling as professional gamblers (oil futures market) are pricing the war out.

Markets adapt whereas pessimistic forecasts tend to be based on zero adaptation. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/New-Estimates-Challenge-Assumptions-About-Lost-Gulf-Oil-Supply.html

The professional gamblers are completely detached from reality, so I wouldn't really put too much faith in what they are doing either way. Oil prices alone fell every one of the 38+ times Trump claimed the war was over (when it was not). Granted this time the Pakistanis are also saying something has been signed ... but all reporting says that that something explicitly has not addressed any of the actual hard parts.

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#3503716 17-Jun-2026 11:10

The war is not over but every sign is showing its inching toward a cease fire. There won't be normalcy in the sense of pre war conditions. Gulf has changed. Iran has won. But no reason the world won't move forwards.

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#3503717 17-Jun-2026 11:25

cddt:

gzt:
Dunno how this data is composed. I suspect it's road samples at fixed points and probably captures relatively inelastic typical commuting as well.

Anecdotally people are driving less discretionary kms. 20% less domestic discretionary kms, dunno, could be.

That's the problem with anecdotes, yours is different to mine. From what I can observe of the people I know, people are driving roughly the same as before the war started.

Never use anecdotes as evidence. My favourite meme:

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#3503786 17-Jun-2026 15:41

Batman: USA is paying Iran USD$300 blllion

That sounds like a facebook meme and is not factual.

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#3503789 17-Jun-2026 15:45

gzt:
Batman: USA is paying Iran USD$300 blllion

That sounds like a facebook meme and is not factual.

if Yahoo is a meme then JD Vance confirmed it, not the source of the funds but the amount ballpark

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/jd-vance-confirms-iran-jaw-150118662.html

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#3503792 17-Jun-2026 15:53

So in other words the USA is not paying Iran USD$300 billion.

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#3503793 17-Jun-2026 15:58

gzt: So in other words the USA is not paying Iran USD$300 billion.

Neither did Obama, but that didn't stop Trump from saying he was. :-D

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#3503794 17-Jun-2026 15:58

Never use anecdotes as evidence. My favourite meme:

I did not intend to offer the anecdote as evidence of anything. The ANZ Truckometer measures traffic volume. It is accepted there is a solid relationship to GDP. The relationship of the dataset to kms travelled is not entirely clear cut.

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