MH370 - Call for Search & Rescue Help

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#1014683 28-Mar-2014 15:47

DravidDavid:

It could have been autopilot bugging out, taking the plane to a stupid height, stalling and correcting itself again. Who knows.

Well nobody "knows", but the explanation given above, supported by fact that the transponder wasn't working, and that it was a long way from radar sites, suggest that altitude estimates from primary radar would not be very accurate at all (could be many thousands of feet out). So it's not sensible to speculate why something like that was done, when there's really no evidence that it was done at all.

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#1014685 28-Mar-2014 15:57

mattwnz: They also think that some of the satellite photos could be showing things like pods of whales. I wonder why the resolution is so crap. Compared to google earth images of land, the satellite images are terrible quality.

Because google earth uses aircraft photography for closer shots Satellites are moving too fast if they where zoomed in that close enough to give fine detail you would see nothing more than a blur.

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#1014689 28-Mar-2014 16:05

geocom:
mattwnz: They also think that some of the satellite photos could be showing things like pods of whales. I wonder why the resolution is so crap. Compared to google earth images of land, the satellite images are terrible quality.

Because google earth uses aircraft photography for closer shots Satellites are moving too fast if they where zoomed in that close enough to give fine detail you would see nothing more than a blur.

I thought they mainly used aircraft photography for the new 45 degree views, at higher magnification. But the sea views that were used for that crowd sourcing when it first disappeared, were far better resolution, than these recent ones we have seen.

turnin

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#1014715 28-Mar-2014 16:50

Most "google maps" imagery below zoom = 15- 16 is aerial photos, if you look at the photo attribution it will provide some clues.
I don't imagine its very easy to search an ocean and I don't have much confidence they have even found mh370 let alone can recover the black box.
Time might tell, but time is running out, ocean currents are fast.

tripper1000

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#1014830 28-Mar-2014 20:11

DravidDavid:

Some have suggested the climb to altitude above regular service level was to starve a fire on board.

Climb to avoid fire? There is no precedence of this in any previous aircraft fires around the world. The fact that the aircraft flew for 7 hours after proves there was no fire. Crew are hyper sensitive about smoke. E & E bay is pressurised, crew would have smelt it and called either a Pan or a mayday before it fire progressed far. The auto pilots and radios are co-located, share power supplies and wiring bundles. The fire simply wouldn't take out radios and not autopilot. Given the recent Hudson river ditching success, they are more likely to ditch. Ditching is std procedure it land can not be made. They certainly wouldn't be experimenting with new fire fighting techniques when PAX only have 7 minutes of oxygen.

Seems beyond complicated. Easier would be this:

Ask Co-Pilot to get you some item from the rear of the plane. Lock door behind him. Point nose at ground, solution.

Since it's clear on your theory of suicide, he didn't care for the lives of any others, same would likely be said about anyone on the ground, so also an option, take off reach, reach say 2000 ft, push the nose at the ground hard and fast, co-pilot would have a) no time to react b) no time to recover the dive before hitting the ground. At 400-500Km/p into the hard surface of the ground, no survivors.

Also no note, and no (apparent) motive.

I'm sorry you are saying he is too insane to rationalize but has the presence of mind to fly a plane for 4 hours to ditch in the ocean so it wouldn't be found, even though it's very likely it HAS been found? Why does he want the plane not found? Insurance pay out? Chances of a pay out, 1 in a million if the insurance company even suspect it's pilot suicide.

So many holes in the theory I recommend not submerging it in water :)

Why would suicide pilot not nose dive into the ground? - not enough mystery to embarrass the airline and the Malaysian government. That would practically be an open and shut case. The world would forget about it after two weeks. The world won't forget about this in a long time. The Chinese certainly think the Malaysians are muppets now. The pilot had just come from a trial were a former premiere of Malaysia had just been found guilt of corruption, and he was very unhappy about it. <speculation>: I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the pilot was in some kind of dispute with his employers - although if so, they certainly won't be admitting it to the media.

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#1014849 28-Mar-2014 20:47

Why would suicide pilot not nose dive into the ground? - not enough mystery to embarrass the airline and the Malaysian government. That would practically be an open and shut case. The world would forget about it after two weeks. The world won't forget about this in a long time. The Chinese certainly think the Malaysians are muppets now. The pilot had just come from a trial were a former premiere of Malaysia had just been found guilt of corruption, and he was very unhappy about it. <speculation>: I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the pilot was in some kind of dispute with his employers - although if so, they certainly won't be admitting it to the media.

Huh? You are saying the pilots motivation for an apparent suicide was to cause mystery and cause embarrassment to the govt? I think you are confusing suicide with terrorism. Someone trying to kill themselves and 230 other people I don't believe, flies a plane for 7 hours.

Someone who wants to kill themselves points the nose of the plane at the ground.

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#1014886 28-Mar-2014 21:56

networkn:

Why would suicide pilot not nose dive into the ground? - not enough mystery to embarrass the airline and the Malaysian government. That would practically be an open and shut case. The world would forget about it after two weeks. The world won't forget about this in a long time. The Chinese certainly think the Malaysians are muppets now. The pilot had just come from a trial were a former premiere of Malaysia had just been found guilt of corruption, and he was very unhappy about it. <speculation>: I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the pilot was in some kind of dispute with his employers - although if so, they certainly won't be admitting it to the media.

Huh? You are saying the pilots motivation for an apparent suicide was to cause mystery and cause embarrassment to the govt? I think you are confusing suicide with terrorism. Someone trying to kill themselves and 230 other people I don't believe, flies a plane for 7 hours.

Someone who wants to kill themselves points the nose of the plane at the ground.

Yeah, your are right, technically that would be terrorism.

But suicide is complicated. He didn't want to simply kill himself. Only some suicidal people want to simply kill them selves. A large proportion of suicidal people want to hurt others as well. Hurting others can be a primary motivator in suicides (but not all cases of course) . That is why suicide is often deemed to be a selfish act. This is why a note is often necessary - to ensure the target people feel guilty - this is also why the contents of the note is not often shared. This is why Americans go to the mall/school/work place/clock tower and shoot a bunch of people before they shoot them selves. This is why NZ has multiple murder/suicides every year. This is why some people threaten to commit suicide when their lover leaves them.

What I was meaning was that he was not only trying to hurt him self and the passengers, he was trying to hurt the Malaysian government and perhaps his Airline. He has hurt the government by making them look incompetent. He made them look incompetent by tricking them into looking in the wrong place. He did this by appearing to crash in one place, while actually crashing in another place - hence the intentional mystery.

As far as everyone knew, Inmarsat was not supposed to be able to trace the plane. It is a minor miracle that they have. We were never supposed to know approx where the plane crashed. It was supposed to simply vanish. He wasn't supposed to look like the bad guy. If he left a note it would be an open and shut case, and the Malaysian government wouldn't look incompetent.

I don't reckon that he flew the plane for 7 hours either. He would likely have gone off oxygen right after setting the route to Antarctica. He may have been dead as soon as 10 minutes after he was confident that the passengers were dead. The autopilot was definitely programmed for that route - the Boeing autopilot circles the last way-point on the programmed route if the pilot does not resume manual control or change flight director mode. Maybe the final way point was the south pole, perhaps the final way point was a particularly remote and deep part on the ocean.

Long story short, having worked on Boeings with identical avionics systems, and seen the evidence of the route, and the transponder and ACARS being turned off, I personally am confident that the plane was sent to its final destination by a human, on purpose. I am confident that it could not have gotten there through any combination of technical failures. If there was a fire or technical failure, it would have crashed much sooner. The fact that it crashed after 7 hour when it ran out of fuel, means it was a fairly airworthy aircraft with no fuel in it. I am no crash investigator, but I am confident that in a years time when you look back on this, the investigators will have declared the same thing.

turnin

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#1014901 28-Mar-2014 22:28

tripper1000:

But suicide is complicated. He didn't want to simply kill himself. Only some suicidal people want to simply kill them selves. A large proportion of suicidal people want to hurt others as well. Hurting others can be a primary motivator in suicides (but not all cases of course) . That is why suicide is often deemed to be a selfish act. This is why a note is often necessary - to ensure the target people feel guilty - this is also why the contents of the note is not often shared. This is why Americans go to the mall/school/work place/clock tower and shoot a bunch of people before they shoot them selves. This is why NZ has multiple murder/suicides every year. This is why some people threaten to commit suicide when their lover leaves them. snipped.

really? I'm genuinely curious to know how you arrive at that conclusion. Does this come from stats ? .
I realise people in desperate situations often have a lot of anger but considering the large and increasing numbers of people who suicide I would have thought the concept of hurting others on their way out is fairly rare, albeit well publicised when it does occur.

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#1014903 28-Mar-2014 22:32

Yeah, your are right, technically that would be terrorism.

But suicide is complicated. He didn't want to simply kill himself. Only some suicidal people want to simply kill them selves. A large proportion of suicidal people want to hurt others as well. Hurting others can be a primary motivator in suicides (but not all cases of course) . That is why suicide is often deemed to be a selfish act. This is why a note is often necessary - to ensure the target people feel guilty - this is also why the contents of the note is not often shared. This is why Americans go to the mall/school/work place/clock tower and shoot a bunch of people before they shoot them selves. This is why NZ has multiple murder/suicides every year. This is why some people threaten to commit suicide when their lover leaves them.

What I was meaning was that he was not only trying to hurt him self and the passengers, he was trying to hurt the Malaysian government and perhaps his Airline. He has hurt the government by making them look incompetent. He made them look incompetent by tricking them into looking in the wrong place. He did this by appearing to crash in one place, while actually crashing in another place - hence the intentional mystery.

See I don't class this as suicide. It's a side effect, but it's primarily terrorism, and mass murder.

I think once the truth comes out, and I am relatively confident it will in the end, whilst it wasn't handled perfectly by the authorities, people won't care, because it's unprecedented. Allowances need to be made.

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#1014908 28-Mar-2014 22:48

networkn:

I think once the truth comes out, and I am relatively confident it will in the end.

I wish I could share your confidence. Despite espousing a few theories myself - all of them lack motive.
When I try to think of motive as a starting point, the best I can come up with is that this whole thing was the result of conspiracy theorists, intent on giving themselves something to do for the next few decades.
Second best is that it was just a simple act of insanity - no rational motive required.

tripper1000

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#1014909 28-Mar-2014 22:49

turnin:
tripper1000:

But suicide is complicated. He didn't want to simply kill himself. Only some suicidal people want to simply kill them selves. A large proportion of suicidal people want to hurt others as well. Hurting others can be a primary motivator in suicides (but not all cases of course) . That is why suicide is often deemed to be a selfish act. This is why a note is often necessary - to ensure the target people feel guilty - this is also why the contents of the note is not often shared. This is why Americans go to the mall/school/work place/clock tower and shoot a bunch of people before they shoot them selves. This is why NZ has multiple murder/suicides every year. This is why some people threaten to commit suicide when their lover leaves them. snipped.

really? I'm genuinely curious to know how you arrive at that conclusion. Does this come from stats ? .
I realise people in desperate situations often have a lot of anger but considering the large and increasing numbers of people who suicide I would have thought the concept of hurting others on their way out is fairly rare, albeit well publicised when it does occur.

Not to bring the tone of the thread down, because I am particularly enjoying to the technical aspects of this mystery, but to answer the question, here is some reading for you on the subject of motivation. Yes, it is primarily base on data from attempts, but oddly you don't get a lot of data from the successful ones.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2044-8341.1971.tb02145.x/abstract;jsessionid=3C898DC86DB4D5138E5BF9BFBF5F52FB.f01t03?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Edit: Actually, it is a terrible reference that doesn't strictly apply to this case.