Ukraine War discussion

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#2875091 25-Feb-2022 19:14

ezbee:

Russia looks enviously at Finland's happiness and wants it.

Yep.

Russia = 1 happy person

Finland = 5 million happy persons

What aggravates me is A) this is not 1939 B) this is not a 40 million country vs a 40 million country, its 1 vs 40 million, and the 1 will win. David vs Goliath, upset sad bully, call it what you like. The end game here will be a very very lengthy Cold War between the West and Russia/China or it will be to the benefit of the people, as at the end of the day a 100 whatever person Government comes and goes, they are temporary managers, thats all, that the population chose, i.e. democracy. The millions of people there now, are just victims and stats.

Human Race can land probes on comets and grab a sample, but cannot look after themselves. (Well they can in general, but the Ukrainian atrocities will be allowed to happen) Then we can chat about it, well, the living people can.

Scotdownunder

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#2875145 25-Feb-2022 22:34

Terrible situation. The best hope of Ukraine’s long term survival is to establish a government in exile and fight an insurgency type conflict until Russia comes to its senses and kicks Putin out. Yes, its cold war time again and I can see Sweden and Finland joining Nato so nullifying Putin desire to keep Nato away. This scenario would mean continuing deaths on both sides and probably destruction of significant parts of infrastructure etc. Not a happy prospect but how else to you resist a dictator ?

ezbee

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#2875182 26-Feb-2022 08:36

So much for swift action.

These Countries Have ‘Disgraced Themselves’ in Blocking Russian Sanctions
https://www.thedailybeast.com/germany-italy-and-hungary-disgraced-themselves-in-blocking-russian-sanctions-says-donald-tusk?ref=home

“In this war everything is real: Putin’s madness and cruelty, Ukrainian victims, bombs falling on Kyiv,” he wrote Friday. “Only your sanctions are pretended. Those EU governments, which blocked tough decisions (i.e. Germany, Hungary, Italy) have disgraced themselves.”

Now Putin starts threatening other states with military action.

Russia threatens 'military and political consequences' if Finland, Sweden try joining NATO
https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/595853-russia-threatens-military-and-political-consequences-if-finland

Putin has also had long running friction with Latvia, on the basis of supporting the Russian diaspora there.

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#2875183 26-Feb-2022 08:42

Shocking. He is obsessed.

Germany etc oppose the war but words only, they dont want to be affected. Economy then peace it seems.

tdgeek

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#2875191 26-Feb-2022 09:19

There are a few parallels here.

1. Cuban Crisis. From what ive read and watched on doco's that was a huge issue. a huge standoff, on the US doorstep by USSR. But back then, no one was stupid. It didn't escalate.

2. Putin, Kim Jong Un, Trump, the guy from WW2 Germany were all obsessed and delusional. Instead of governing a country for the benefit of the country and the people, it was a one man band playing military monopoly to satisfy an ego.

I can see a PRNK type scenario. Border is manned by both sides, threats that if a shot is fired there will be a response like you've never seen before. Someone fires a shot, giving the other an excuse to barrage the border, then they both say they started it. NATO is ramping up now. What happens when Kiev is taken will they place the President and government under house arrest? Execute them? (Sorry, we were attacked and the government all died unfortunately.) I wonder what action by Russia could override NATO not touching Ukraine if some atrocity was committed? When you have a delusional dictator its hard to foresee anything, no cards are off the table.

While all this is going on, Germany, Italy etc will be watching the bloodshed and stating that there should be diplomatic talks..... $$$$

SJB

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#2875196 26-Feb-2022 09:36

I believe Putin has developed mental issues over the last few years, probably as a result of being locked away from normal human experiences for such a long time. As such he can't be reasoned with and every move he makes is to reinforce his warped view of himself and Russia's position in the world.

He intends to create a new USSR and wants to be recognised as Russia's greatest ever leader. He probably admires Stalin.

He also knows he will never be criticised by China and is facing a weak and divided West.

Nato will not move against him unless the US backs it and Biden just doesn't have it in him. Every time I see him he looks further past his sell by date. He will maintain a purely diplomatic approach until the Russians turn up on Staten Island. I doubt he would intervene if Russia invaded Finland and Sweden.

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#2875201 26-Feb-2022 09:46

I dont think NATO can move against him, due to the rules and International Law. Not really a US thing IMO. Its about what level of atrocity crosses the line.

NATO could move to bring Finland and Sweden into membership to apply pressure. No need to fire bullets, there are a number of non military actions that can be used to apply pressure.

Belarus needs to be sanctioned also.

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#2875213 26-Feb-2022 10:09

Do I laugh or do cry?:

The Guardian - Russia-Ukraine latest news:

At the bottom of the sanctions list:

Russia will no longer be allowed to compete in this year’s Eurovision song contest, with organisers saying its inclusion could “bring the competition into disrepute”. 😗

Sideface

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#2875217 26-Feb-2022 10:21

Sideface:

Do I laugh or do cry?:

The Guardian - Russia-Ukraine latest news:

At the bottom of the sanctions list:

Russia will no longer be allowed to compete in this year’s Eurovision song contest, with organisers saying its inclusion could “bring the competition into disrepute”. 😗

Yeah, its not much. F1 Russian Grand Prix is now off, also not much. But I feel its positive as its isolating Russia. Remove them from the daily positive things the world has to offer. I do hope that Russian sportspeople and performers are not targeted or vilified or affected. What their country does is what one man is doing, not the overall population.

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#2875218 26-Feb-2022 10:24

There may still be hope. I saw something about possible talks between Ukraine and Russia in Belarus. If the information is correct, Ukraine is now indicating a willingness to become a formally neutral country. This makes sense. It might be a way to retain a modicum of independence. It would certainly be better than all-out conquest. When a thug holds a gun to your head, you tend to give him what he wants.

Ukraine fighters also seem to be doing better than expected against the Russians. Maybe this why Putin is so pissed off. If it turns out not to be the cakewalk he was hoping for, he might be willing to take what he can grab and back off.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2875222 26-Feb-2022 10:26

SJB: I believe Putin has developed mental issues over the last few years, probably as a result of being locked away from normal human experiences for such a long time. As such he can't be reasoned with and every move he makes is to reinforce his warped view of himself and Russia's position in the world.

I don't think so. Putin has regular hunting and fishing trips lots of very nice places to stay and good friends to spend time with. This period is the result of extreme nationalism among some as paralleled in the life and career of advisor Aleksandr Dugin:

Wikipedia: [64] Dugin is an author of Putin's initiative for the annexation of Crimea by Russia.[65] He considered the war between Russia and Ukraine to be inevitable and appealed for Putin to start intervene in the War in Donbas.[65] Dugin said: "The Russian Renaissance can only stop by Kiev."[66] During the 2014 pro-Russian conflict in Ukraine, Dugin was in regular contact with pro-Russian separatist insurgents.

If reading that article does not explain much of the weird conspiracy content on RT for years now I don't know what else could.

tdgeek

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#2875224 26-Feb-2022 10:36

Rikkitic:

There may still be hope. I saw something about possible talks between Ukraine and Russia in Belarus. If the information is correct, Ukraine is now indicating a willingness to become a formally neutral country. This makes sense. It might be a way to retain a modicum of independence. It would certainly be better than all-out conquest. When a thug holds a gun to your head, you tend to give him what he wants.

Ukraine fighters also seem to be doing better than expected against the Russians. Maybe this why Putin is so pissed off. If it turns out not to be the cakewalk he was hoping for, he might be willing to take what he can grab and back off.

Ive watched this too. They call it I think a false flag. Talks have been suggested by both, but its false flags, pretending to be ready to negotiate, but everyone knows Putin is fake. Putin asking Ukrainians to do a coup. Military warning Ukrainians men that if you resist your family will be killed.

Dont trust anything Putin, Trump, KJI say

GV27

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#2875239 26-Feb-2022 11:37

Ukraine might pitch to be neutral, but there's no peaceful end-game in the medium term.

Either UKR falls and Putin installs a puppet, or UKR resists and almost certainly decides to re-arm as it's clear the Budapest Assurances aren't worth the paper they're printed on.

Either way, Nato is closer to Russia/UKR than they were because Russia's defacto borders are now much further West than they were previously. And if Ukraine survives, they will almost certainly be chirping about their right to restore nuclear capability given the impotence of the major NATO partners when it comes to meaningful sanctions (Italy/Germany).

This might be the first round in a very gradual but suddenly accelerating period of upheaval in Europe.

gzt

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#2875242 26-Feb-2022 11:54

SJB: Nato will not move against him unless the US backs it and Biden just doesn't have it in him. Every time I see him he looks further past his sell by date.

You are mistaken. That is not how NATO works. It is a treaty under which members can request military assistance from other members if attacked.

tdgeek

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#2875245 26-Feb-2022 11:59

gzt:
SJB: Nato will not move against him unless the US backs it and Biden just doesn't have it in him. Every time I see him he looks further past his sell by date.

You are mistaken. That is not how NATO works. It is a treaty under which members can request military assistance from other members if attacked.

Yep, in fact I think NATO is obligated to go in, not be requested

The UN well thats another matter. Are all united to go after the foe? probably except Russia chairs it and has a veto vote. They never considered that a UN member will go after another UN member. A bit short sighted, but post 1945, well you could have thought that, but still should have had exit clauses. That no member who is in conflict with another member can participate in any vote concerning the dispute.

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