Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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Forums › Politics › Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3227234 7-May-2024 08:25

Heard this argument at the sauna this morning that went along the lines of-

1000 serious offenders locked up = 1000 times less likely chance of those serious offenders committing a serious crime.

Sure someone else could commit serious offence = that person also gets locked up

Sure then someone else could commit serious offence = that person also gets locked up

Sure then someone...

It's like you keep getting a parking fine for being lazy and parking where you shouldn't park but after a few fines, surely you would think twice or make changes to your lazy lifestyle to park where you are allowed to park. I know, big difference from "serious offending", but crime = parking illegally, locked up = fines..

Apparently previous great approach which takes decades to work, where trusting human nature to somehow realise they are committing a crime and change within themselves, wanting to go to rehab sessions, wanting to improve and taking actions on their own accord rather than some psychologist and parole officer forcing them to..

I was like, what a rubbish argument and left sauna.

sir1963

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#3227241 7-May-2024 08:34

thinkingtrex8848:

Heard this argument at the sauna this morning that went along the lines of-

1000 serious offenders locked up = 1000 times less likely chance of those serious offenders committing a serious crime.

Sure someone else could commit serious offence = that person also gets locked up

Sure then someone else could commit serious offence = that person also gets locked up

Sure then someone...

It's like you keep getting a parking fine for being lazy and parking where you shouldn't park but after a few fines, surely you would think twice or make changes to your lazy lifestyle to park where you are allowed to park. I know, big difference from "serious offending", but crime = parking illegally, locked up = fines..

Apparently previous great approach which takes decades to work, where trusting human nature to somehow realise they are committing a crime and change within themselves, wanting to go to rehab sessions, wanting to improve and taking actions on their own accord rather than some psychologist and parole officer forcing them to..

I was like, what a rubbish argument and left sauna.

Those who have nothing, have nothing to lose. People with no ties or stake in the community feel no obligation towards the community or those that live in it.
The beatings will continue until morale improves has NEVER worked, it may be enough for those claiming otherwise, but that is BECAUSE they have something to lose.

If they believe harsher punishments are "prevention" , then the USA should be the safest country on earth, but we are far safer here than in the USA.

thinkingtrex8848

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#3227267 7-May-2024 09:54

Totally agree Sir1963. I’m also confused with these stats from US-

“ Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%) and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter (-34%).

Using the BJS statistics, the declines in the violent and property crime rates are even steeper than those captured in the FBI data. Per BJS, the U.S. violent and property crime rates each fell 71% between 1993 and 2022.“

sir1963

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#3227268 7-May-2024 09:57

thinkingtrex8848: Totally agree Sir1963. I’m also confused with these stats from US-

“ Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%) and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter (-34%).

Using the BJS statistics, the declines in the violent and property crime rates are even steeper than those captured in the FBI data. Per BJS, the U.S. violent and property crime rates each fell 71% between 1993 and 2022.“

Compare Murders, Rape, Violent crimes etc to NZ... The USA is also at something like 2 mass shootings a DAY, they are world leader for school shootings.

Did you know NZ has a travel warning about the USA and gun violence

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#3227272 7-May-2024 10:23

sir1963:

thinkingtrex8848: Totally agree Sir1963. I’m also confused with these stats from US-

“ Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%) and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter (-34%).

Using the BJS statistics, the declines in the violent and property crime rates are even steeper than those captured in the FBI data. Per BJS, the U.S. violent and property crime rates each fell 71% between 1993 and 2022.“

Compare Murders, Rape, Violent crimes etc to NZ... The USA is also at something like 2 mass shootings a DAY, they are world leader for school shootings.

Um, maybe I incorrectly assumed by "violent" crime and "murder/manslaughter" those stats were referring to murders according to conventional definition of murder..

Still don't know why their super violent crimes trending downwards 49% according to one stats and 71% according to another.. Where as NZ stats shows steady increase in murders.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=NZ

In regard to: "Did you know NZ has a travel warning about the USA and gun violence"

Sure, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, Netherlands and few other heavenly countries also have travel warnings issued by NZ.

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#3227301 7-May-2024 12:41

Perhaps Luxon should read his notes?

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thinkingtrex8848

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#3227304 7-May-2024 12:49

michaelmurfy:

Perhaps Luxon should read his notes?

Haha this was painful to watch, similar to yesterday's release. Extremely clueless!

Who else thinks Mark Mitchell is next on the block to get fired based on performance review ;) Two fired already and would be good to see more incompetent ones getting the axe.

Anyway, interesting how 1News posted the "clarification" video an hour ago and Newshub posted the earlier "confused" version after the numbers were clarified.

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sir1963

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#3227306 7-May-2024 12:54

thinkingtrex8848:

Um, maybe I incorrectly assumed by "violent" crime and "murder/manslaughter" those stats were referring to murders according to conventional definition of murder..

Still don't know why their super violent crimes trending downwards 49% according to one stats and 71% according to another.. Where as NZ stats shows steady increase in murders.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=NZ

In regard to: "Did you know NZ has a travel warning about the USA and gun violence"

Sure, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, Netherlands and few other heavenly countries also have travel warnings issued by NZ.

This one ?

thinkingtrex8848

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#3227307 7-May-2024 12:57

sir1963:

This one ?

Apologies, what was the question?
Graph shows NZ trending up and US trending down from the 90s..

sir1963

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#3227309 7-May-2024 13:05

thinkingtrex8848:

sir1963:

This one ?

Apologies, what was the question?
Graph shows NZ trending up and US trending down from the 90s..

USA still higher in spite of owning over 50% of the worlds privately owned guns, in spite of 1% of the US population in prison, in spite of another 3-4% on parole, in spite of the death sentence.

So the USA has gone from truely Horrific to still bad. "justified homicides" are also missing and police reporting of them is inconsistent.

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#3227313 7-May-2024 13:13

Gun proliferation control is apparently making a difference

American Progress: Analysis of incident-level data from the Gun Violence Archive reveals that of the 300 largest U.S. cities, cities in states with the strongest gun laws experienced 19.4 percent fewer total gun homicides in 2023 than in 2022, while cities in states with the weakest gun laws saw only 5.1 percent fewer total gun homicides—more than a 14 percent difference between cities in states with the strongest gun laws and those with the weakest gun laws.

It is not really possible yet to draw a firm conclusion. There are several caveats in the article. It's encouraging. Anyway, back to NZ.

thinkingtrex8848

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#3227314 7-May-2024 13:15

Nobody is disputing US isn't a horrible country for gun violence.

Was just confused with the stats that their "tough on crime" approach should have made things worse as claimed by current opposition but as you posted, the trend is going downwards and as you stated, went from "horrific" to less horrific/bad which means it is improving and positive change.

Whereas, "soft on crime" approach of NZ has seen the same stats trending upwards.

Just the messenger here, I have no stake in either camps but it is interesting to take devil's advocate to learn more about these important matters.

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#3227316 7-May-2024 13:18

michaelmurfy:

Perhaps Luxon should read his notes?

He is still running an airline: "expand by 110 seats. Uh... beds"

thinkingtrex8848

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#3227317 7-May-2024 13:18

sir1963:

USA still higher in spite of owning over 50% of the worlds privately owned guns, in spite of 1% of the US population in prison, in spite of another 3-4% on parole, in spite of the death sentence.

So the USA has gone from truely Horrific to still bad. "justified homicides" are also missing and police reporting of them is inconsistent.

Quote didn't work earlier, so reposting with quotes.

Nobody is disputing US isn't a horrible country for gun violence.

Whereas, "soft on crime" approach of NZ has seen the same stats trending upwards.

Just the messenger here, I have no stake in either camps but it is interesting to take devil's advocate to learn more about these important matters.

sir1963

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#3227324 7-May-2024 13:43

thinkingtrex8848:

sir1963:

USA still higher in spite of owning over 50% of the worlds privately owned guns, in spite of 1% of the US population in prison, in spite of another 3-4% on parole, in spite of the death sentence.

So the USA has gone from truely Horrific to still bad. "justified homicides" are also missing and police reporting of them is inconsistent.

Quote didn't work earlier, so reposting with quotes.

Nobody is disputing US isn't a horrible country for gun violence.

Was just confused with the stats that their "tough on crime" approach should have made things worse as claimed by current opposition but as you posted, the trend is going downwards and as you stated, went from "horrific" to less horrific/bad which means it is improving and positive change.

Whereas, "soft on crime" approach of NZ has seen the same stats trending upwards.

Just the messenger here, I have no stake in either camps but it is interesting to take devil's advocate to learn more about these important matters.

Have you any evidence that the reduction in crime was the result of being tough on crime ?

There are a whole heap of socio-economic factors involved , For example a declining rate of poverty

https://www.statista.com/statistics/200463/us-poverty-rate-since-1990/

How has the rate of violence been impacted through the decriminalisation of marijuana ?

Has Unemployment changed ?

Education ?, access to welfare ?, aces to mental health care?

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