Ukraine War discussion

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2405 posts

Uber Geek

#3370044 2-May-2025 16:27

Minerals deal,
Putin's people have already been dangling Aluminuim, Metals, Oil, Fertiliser supplies at good prices to make up for Canadian supplies to empower America in its war against Canada.
Putin really is a good friend !

I expect Putin is offering same or better mineral deal for Ukrainian minerals if Russia runs Ukraine.

So Ukraine deal perhaps more a contingency until Russsia can finish the job ?
Which suits most of Trumps, cabinet, Trump who wants a Trump Hotel in Moscow, and maybe a Trump Golf course in Odessa.

Then Trump has a history of breaking deals unilaterally, like Putin does.
Like he did with deal he negotiated with Canada.

gzt

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#3370048 2-May-2025 16:44

elpenguino: I will be watching to see the deal limited to mines in Crimea, Luhansk and Donbas.

Unlikely. Ukraine will continue to desire America on side for a long term.

tdgeek

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#3370059 2-May-2025 18:59

As I see it (and I was never in favour of the minerals deal) is that it seems to be a win-win

USA gets the deal. UKR gets the deal that it can turn resources into cash, gets an investment fund for rebuilding. Its loose enough to let EU in. It doesnt give security protection from the US though. US will provide protection, but could it be military surrounding the mines, while schools, kindergartens, hospitals, apartment buildings are getting pummelled, out of range from the mines?

US I gather can provide military assistance via that being an investment in the fund. = sorted? EU jumps in with feet on the ground and planes in the air (Keir Starmer). Putin wont like that but he wont have a choice. Especially if its within coo-eee of a mine(s). Essentially Russia gets locked out passively. The globe needs to hammer Russia. Economically, and militarily on the ground in UKR. Putin supporters need to be targeted. Russia economy is getting very fragile, although having said that, as a Hitler like dictator (when its ALL about his personal desires (Germany takes over the world/USSR 2.0) the plight of Russian citizens isnt important.

I can see the deal squeezing Russia "bigly". UKR has removed parts of the deal. Imagine if Russia was attacking nearby mines, UKR can say, mining is postponed as its unsafe, USA may well step in as well as EU

Its a bit sad that all this may occur, which till now, has been giving Putin the green light for years. That in itself hasn't helped.

tdgeek

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#3370061 2-May-2025 19:02

gzt:

elpenguino: I will be watching to see the deal limited to mines in Crimea, Luhansk and Donbas.

Unlikely. Ukraine will continue to desire America on side for a long term.

Agree, but Trump is cutting costs left right and centre, but the deal gives him wiggle room to support Ukraine. EU will and can step up. They slightly exceed USA on $ support but not on military support (included in those $) But USA can supply military support, EU can provide feet on the ground and planes in the air, which may not be huge, bit thats been zero so far. IMO these factors are not huge, but they compound.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#3371237 7-May-2025 16:36

Geez we're an depressingly ingenious species when it comes to finding new ways to blow things up...

When you have a battlefield covered in electronic smog and boatloads of radio jamming what do you do...

simple.... spool out kms of fibre to control your explosive drones....

tdgeek

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#3372312 11-May-2025 18:11

So, idiot Putin has caved. He has been pressured by USA and EU, so he is now happy to embark on direct negotiations. But, and its a but and a big but. They are reaching out, so to the west its looks great, but in fact it will be as they inferred, based on Russia's, sorry, Putin's, red lines. So its going nowhere. "let me undertake an attack on a sovereign country, let me attack schools, kindergartens, hospitals, apartment buildings, heating infrastructure in Winter, and give me everything I illegally, and immorally took. That is Putins minimal negotiation. USA and EU need to send him to the wolves.

At some point the citizens and/or military will revolt. As they want the population to succeed, Putins wants USSR 2.0 at any cost.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#3372326 11-May-2025 19:26

I expect its more a delay tactic delay, nothing to say there will be any quick result.

Basically all the strongly pro Russia people around Trump can say.
Putin is a good Christian with Aluminum, Minerals and Oil that is willing to deal.
Great profitable deals and Ukraine is in the way, just stop those shipments again, for Ukraine to capitulate.

Ukraine minerals deal, Putin can give you that and more, to deal to Canada.

I expect that a quick Nobel Peace Prize is the ultimate Trump has been hanging out for.

I gather the Russian way of negotiating is, we negotiate on 'your' concessions.

So stopping attacks to show goodwill is probably not on the table.
There will be extra demands.
Allies stop rearming and financing Ukraine while I rearm like gangbusters as you took off sanctions.
10's or 100Km DMZ patrolled by nations that will not want to confront Russia directly ?

You give concessions while I do not. :-) The Russian way.

The negotiating thing is a bit of a boondoggle, as each have been communicating all along.
There have been regular prisoner swaps and such. There are channels to pass messages.

Putin is the aggressor, he can stop any time, and save resources.
However I don't think he wants his military ever to return and create trouble at home.

Putin will probably stick to the maximal demands near capitulation and then blame Ukraine for not accepting.

thermonuclear

600 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3373591 15-May-2025 14:30

I see Putin won't be attending the Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul later this evening. I imagine he's too scared to step off Russian soil and anywhere near a nation who might allow an operation to snatch him up and put him in front of the International Criminal Court. Though I don't imagine there's too many who'd like to take a run at that mission against Putin's security detail.

PolicyGuy

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#3373597 15-May-2025 14:59

thermonuclear:

I see Putin won't be attending the Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul later this evening. I imagine he's too scared to step off Russian soil and anywhere near a nation who might allow an operation to snatch him up and put him in front of the International Criminal Court. Though I don't imagine there's too many who'd like to take a run at that mission against Putin's security detail.

He might be equally worried about people back home getting ideas about somebody different as State President of the Russian Federation being a needed improvement. Other despots have found that the 'reliable pair of hands' they left minding the shop either has ideas of their own, or last only a few hours before somebody else takes over.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#3373637 15-May-2025 17:02

Putin, yeh there is risk to his 'iron hand' of control.
Though he is held in place by Siloviki the inheritors of KGB as their man.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/explained-who-are-silovarchs-and-exactly-how-powerful-are-they-101649653739708.html#:~:text=When%20most%20of%20the%20oligarchs%20backed%20by%20former,the%20siloviki%20%28roughly%2C%20%E2%80%9Cpower%20agents.%E2%80%9D%29%2C%20according%20to%20experts.

Maybe they want someone new.

Maybe they want Ukraine more, then they can have Putin view his victory from a high window.
New beginning with riches of Ukraine and on doorstep of Europe.
Be nice to us it was Putin's fault and its too late to undo the past.

Putin may also want his summer campaign to try another 'zerg rush' across the fields.
No use wasting peak fighting season on a ceasefire.
Like Golden Horde you can keep them loyal as long as there is more land, tribute and plunder ?
You may not want them to come home.

From what I understand Ukraine has known Russian conditions for a very long time, and they are unworkable.
They want all the annexed land they do not occupy, including major cities Kherson across the river, and Zaporizhzhia.
So two major cities one > 700K population pre war with another dam and river crossings.
Plus other major cities bought into simple artillery range buy this advance.

But then there has been talk of if we have all of Kherson Oblast across river that's getting close to heartland Odessa.
Then that's close to heartland Transnistria, so lets have it all and cut Ukraine off from Black sea and major rivers into EU.

tdgeek

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#3376427 24-May-2025 18:30

So, there is a prisoner swap. Thats quite a gain based on the inability of Putin to get within 0.5% of a peace discussion. Since as in now, they are bombarding Kiev. Not unlike the planned peace discussions a short while ago, where Putin unleashed another barrage just ahead of these "peace" discussions.

tdgeek

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#3377543 28-May-2025 10:13

I see EU, USA have authorised long range missiles, about time.

Russia say thats not helpful for negotiations (which Russia is playing us all as fools, Trumps finally wised up to that)

So obliterate an independent nation, but its a problem when they return fire??? At least the returning of fire wont include schools, kindergartens, hospitals, apartments, and energy infrastructure which is all about targeting civilians

SaltyNZ

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#3377547 28-May-2025 10:56

tdgeek:

I see EU, USA have authorised long range missiles, about time.

Russia say thats not helpful for negotiations (which Russia is playing us all as fools, Trumps finally wised up to that)

So obliterate an independent nation, but its a problem when they return fire??? At least the returning of fire wont include schools, kindergartens, hospitals, apartments, and energy infrastructure which is all about targeting civilians

So far Ukraine has been scrupulous about that, and it is to be commended. Not a single attempt to drop a drone on the Kermlin or Putin's dacha on the coast, even.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

tdgeek

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#3377631 28-May-2025 11:28

SaltyNZ:

tdgeek:

I see EU, USA have authorised long range missiles, about time.

Russia say thats not helpful for negotiations (which Russia is playing us all as fools, Trumps finally wised up to that)

So obliterate an independent nation, but its a problem when they return fire??? At least the returning of fire wont include schools, kindergartens, hospitals, apartments, and energy infrastructure which is all about targeting civilians

So far Ukraine has been scrupulous about that, and it is to be commended. Not a single attempt to drop a drone on the Kermlin or Putin's dacha on the coast, even.

Yeah, dotting the i's etc, while Putin has been smashing the alphabet. But finally Trump has twigged that a negotiation will never happen

Hard to know what happens here. Russia will say that they tried to have a peace negotiation but the West doesn't want it.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#3377634 28-May-2025 12:06

tdgeek:

I see EU, USA have authorised long range missiles, about time.

Russia say thats not helpful for negotiations (which Russia is playing us all as fools, Trumps finally wised up to that)

So obliterate an independent nation, but its a problem when they return fire??? At least the returning of fire wont include schools, kindergartens, hospitals, apartments, and energy infrastructure which is all about targeting civilians

Not quite,

I think the latest comment was Germany removing its limits, and coming into line with others who had already removed their limitations on Ukraine using long range missiles to strike inside Russia,

The US and UK authorised this in November 2024,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/ukraine-uk-missiles-strike-russia

But it now requires Germany to actually send Taurus missile to Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/sending-taurus-to-ukraine-end-of-german-fear-and-escalation-angst/

The most likely target would be a sustained attack on the Kerch Bridge,

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