Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

To post in this sub-forum you must have made 100 posts or have Trust status or have completed our ID Verification

Forums › Politics › Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

1 | ... | 269 | 270 | 271 | 272 | 273 | 274 | 275 | 276

19190 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8302

Lifetime subscriber

#3505940 24-Jun-2026 21:24

MikeAqua:
gzt: Luxon says a vote for Opportunity is a vote for Labour and Green:
I think hes's right:

Wong has ruled out TOP working with NZF (in an RNZ interview), and

National can't get back into power without NZF.

Therefore: TOP can't form a govt with National, unless Wong goes back po ehr word

I think the other issue is whether Top is second or last cab off the rank for Labour. Greens will presumably ne first choice for labour, but TOP may be a refreshingly sane alternative to TPM.

Link to the RNZ interview please. I have listened to two RNZ interviews with Qiulae Wong and I did not hear that at all.

In fact there is some surprising commonality between National and Opportunity. For example Wong says Opportunity favors means testing national superannuation (20:40). I'm guessing National would jump at that one:

It surprises me that TOP is prepared to means test national super - before the basic income which is obviously isn't means tested. Surprising but there you go.

MikeAqua

8328 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4057

#3505961 25-Jun-2026 09:38

gzt:
Link to the RNZ interview please. I have listened to two RNZ interviews with Qiulae Wong and I did not hear that at all.

In fact there is some surprising commonality between National and Opportunity.

I can't give you link to a radio interview I heard while driving, sorry. Wong's words were a lot of criticism of NZF and some specific comments about TOP being an alternate to NZF. I agree with the criticisms. Peter's has long been both Van de Graff generator and lightning-rod for pockets of discontent, and stitched enough power together by aggregating them to make himself Kingmaker.

TOP on the other hand would be a Van de Graff generator and lighting-rod for broader discontentment with polarised politics and make themselves King maker. That's why Wong is positioning her party as an alternate (her word) Kingmaker. Alternate meaning instead of, not with. Clear enough for me.

Being willing to work with National doesn't really matter if Wong won't work with NZF. Different story if TOP can get to >15% and displace NZF (assuming they're also willing to work with ACT).

But ... realistically National isn't going to be up for taxing capital and paying UBI.

I see TOP as a Labour and Greens aligned party, who have realised that falsely projecting neutrality buys them votes. TOP policy is probably most closely aligned to the Greens - taxing land, paying a UBI and their Oceans Policy would align well with the Greens. They would butt heads on GE policy, though.

Mike

quickymart

15167 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 14496

ID Verified

#3505967 25-Jun-2026 10:04

SaltyNZ:

gzt: Luxon says a vote for Opportunity is a vote for Labour and Green:

He's certainly feeling the heat. He's trashing literally everyone right now, including his own coalition partners. I mean, I know all the parties have to stake their own turf, but he's quite venomous about it.

IMO I think Luxon is actually panicking. He doesn't show it, but the fact he's going around criticising everyone not-National, on the back of trying to launch a "two blue ticks" campaign means they are worrying about the election.

As an aside, while I realise the war in Iran isn't personally Luxon's fault, unfortunately for him (in my experience) is voters vote with their wallet, and whoever is at the top of the food chain cops the blame. And at the moment, it's him.

SaltyNZ

9139 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 10240

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3505970 25-Jun-2026 10:25

quickymart:

As an aside, while I realise the war in Iran isn't personally Luxon's fault, unfortunately for him (in my experience) is voters vote with their wallet, and whoever is at the top of the food chain cops the blame. And at the moment, it's him.

Yes it must really gall him that he's spent 3 years telling the country that all their problems are the fault of Labour (who had to make no-win decisions using imperfect, incomplete data with about a 24-hour deadline during an unprecedented global crisis) only to be in almost the exact same position now (except that the real crisis, if it comes to that, has been clearly signaled months in advance).

He came into power expecting to ride the inevitable upswing of the global economy, trashing his opponents and putting himself forward as the master strategist and prime mover of the national recovery. But instead, the inevitable global economic upswing has proven to be stubbornly evitable after all. But after all the trashing he's done he cannot possibly now turn around and say that the government of New Zealand has relatively little influence on overall economic conditions and to the extent that it does, much of what his government has done has suppressed it by directly throwing thousands of public servants out of work and indirectly throwing thousands more people out by cancelling major government works that were Not Invented Here.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

gzt

19190 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8302

Lifetime subscriber

#3505979 25-Jun-2026 11:02

MikeAqua: Being willing to work with National doesn't really matter if Wong won't work with NZF.

Nonsense. It means a confidence and supply agreement with National. Opportunity doesn't have to talk to NZF at all. In fact, Opportunity can have Ministerial positions outside cabinet under that arrangement.

gzt

19190 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8302

Lifetime subscriber

#3505980 25-Jun-2026 11:15

MikeAqua: I can't give you link to a radio interview I heard while driving, sorry. Wong's words were a lot of criticism of NZF and some specific comments about TOP being an alternate to NZF.

That part isn't new. In the interviews I've linked above Qiulae Wong expresses no issues working with NZ First and says she has interacted with NZ First MPs on some occasions.

Geekzone support

Support Geekzone with one-off or recurring donations Donate via PressPatron.

SaltyNZ

9139 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 10240

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3505987 25-Jun-2026 11:33

gzt:
MikeAqua: Being willing to work with National doesn't really matter if Wong won't work with NZF.

Nonsense. It means a confidence and supply agreement with National. Opportunity doesn't have to talk to NZF at all. In fact, Opportunity can have Ministerial positions outside cabinet under that arrangement.

As @Handle9 has astutely pointed out, C&S with a minister outside of cabinet has historically not resulted in especially strong influence.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

gzt

19190 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8302

Lifetime subscriber

#3505988 25-Jun-2026 11:44

MikeAqua: But ... realistically National isn't going to be up for taxing capital and paying UBI.

The UBI and land tax clearly isn't a bottom line for Opportunity. I linked a previous interview above where Wong said Opportunity prefers to means test superannuation. I'm sure National would jump at the chance for means testing. Wong interviewed this morning says high priority issues are AI, climate change and superannuation, presumably with means testing. Clearly UBI and land tax are not up there:

https://youtu.be/6e5OdHJ6E_8

(video has misleading headline referring to a hypothetical electorate seat deal which no party has actually raised)

gzt

19190 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8302

Lifetime subscriber

#3505990 25-Jun-2026 11:55

SaltyNZ:
gzt: Nonsense. It means a confidence and supply agreement with National. Opportunity doesn't have to talk to NZF at all. In fact, Opportunity can have Ministerial positions outside cabinet under that arrangement.

As @Handle9 has astutely pointed out, C&S with a minister outside of cabinet has historically not resulted in especially strong influence.

Sure, you can't expect to rule the world with 4-6% of the vote. I'm sure Opportunity would be more than happy with that outcome a ministerial profile and some very minor policy 'wins' to point to.

MikeAqua

8328 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4057

#3505999 25-Jun-2026 12:18

gzt:
Nonsense. It means a confidence and supply agreement with National. Opportunity doesn't have to talk to NZF at all. In fact, Opportunity can have Ministerial positions outside cabinet under that arrangement.

That's still within the realm of 'with'. Under those arrangements, TOP will need NZF support pass policy.

Mike

MikeAqua

8328 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4057

#3506000 25-Jun-2026 12:25

gzt:
That part isn't new. In the interviews I've linked above Qiulae Wong expresses no issues working with NZ First and says she has interacted with NZ First MPs on some occasions.

Alternate is an exclusionary statement. When I hear alternate, I think instead of. But hey, let's revisit in a few months when we have the actual behaviours to analyse.

"Interacted with?" ... that's meaningless. Green MPS and ACT MPs have 'interacted', that doesn't mean they'll be part the same govt.

Mike

HP

Shop now for HP laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

gzt

19190 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8302

Lifetime subscriber

#3506004 25-Jun-2026 13:05

MikeAqua:
gzt: Nonsense. It means a confidence and supply agreement with National. Opportunity doesn't have to talk to NZF at all. In fact, Opportunity can have Ministerial positions outside cabinet under that arrangement.
That's still within the realm of 'with'. Under those arrangements, TOP will need NZF support pass policy

As yet you have provided no evidence that Opportunity refuses to work with NZ First.

In any case there are numerous ways demonstrated previously in NZ parliament where parties are effectively part of and supporting the government while effectively not talking.

Your repeated claims on this topic are just not based in the reality as other commenters have demonstrated.

sen8or

1961 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1464

#3506006 25-Jun-2026 13:09

gzt:
Sure, you can't expect to rule the world with 4-6% of the vote. I'm sure Opportunity would be more than happy with that outcome a ministerial profile and some very minor policy 'wins' to point to.

Have you heard of Winston?

6.08% in 2023, that was pretty influential

7.2% in 2017, that was pretty influential

Whilst the party may not have "ruled the world", for NZ politics, they have come pretty close

MikeAqua

8328 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4057

#3506007 25-Jun-2026 13:18

gzt:
The UBI and land tax clearly isn't a bottom line for Opportunity. I linked a previous interview above where Wong said Opportunity prefers to means test superannuation. I'm sure National would jump at the chance for means testing. Wong interviewed this morning says high priority issues are AI, climate change and superannuation, presumably with means testing. Clearly UBI and land tax are not up there:

UBI and Land Tax are central to big chunks of their policy. Those aren't the only friction points. Run through the details section of their policies (which I have done) and there are a lot of policy objectives NZF or National couldn't support. They are also going to need ruinous amounts of money for the science work to underpin some of their policies.

Mike

MikeAqua

8328 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4057

#3506009 25-Jun-2026 13:28

gzt:
As yet you have provided no evidence that Opportunity refuses to work with NZ First.

My claim is that they won't in the future work with NZF. I have provided evidence for this. Specifically, TOP positing themselves as an alternative to NZF. Not sure how I could be any clearer.

Mike

1 | ... | 269 | 270 | 271 | 272 | 273 | 274 | 275 | 276