So it begins...

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#1951067 3-Feb-2018 11:44

Pumpedd:
gzt:
elpenguino: I don't think Bennett has the smarts to succeed - I suspect she is dep leader only to bring a show of gender balance.

It seems to me she handled difficult portfolios quite well in the media spotlight. I can't imagine anyone else doing as well with those portfolios. Instant name recognition. Personally I'd consider her the leading candidate.

I blame her for the housing mess..she was minister of housing....she also stripped out the welfare system that contributed substantially to child poverty.

All under the leadership of John Key as I recall. Is there an alternative universe in which the national party does not do this kind of stuff?

bmt

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Ultimate Geek
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#1951222 3-Feb-2018 18:48

There's always going to be a right wing voting block and a left wing voting block. The difference between the two is that right wing is 99% National with ACT barely registering, whereas the left is split between Labour and the Greens (ignoring NZ First here as even the experts can't put their finger on them).

Labour + Greens polled higher than National in the latest poll. It's the exact same as the "Coalition" in Aussie - the Liberals by themselves polled lower than Labor.

bmt

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#1951224 3-Feb-2018 18:52

As for National leadership, would be surprised if they went with any of the older generation of MPs (i.e Joyce). You'd have to think Bridges would be the front runner given his strong start in opposition. No way Bennett will be leader, it is largely accepted she was terrible as a Minister and much like Kelvin Davis is largely kept away from the media. Coleman is a small possibility but his performance as Health Minister was truly abysmal.

But as I keep saying it's all by the by, unless they magic up a new coalition partner its all a bit moot - they aren't going to poll >50% by themselves in 2020 regardless of who is leader.

Aredwood

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#1951240 3-Feb-2018 21:05

National needs to have another cup of tea with Act. And Tell Act to re postion themselves as a center right party. Instead of a far right party.

Act could then advance some pro environment policy, full legalization of marijuana, reform of the housing market to get more houses built. Basically policies that the mostly older National voters seem to be adverse to. But which are still center right policies.

In effect, be like Labour/ greens. But without any socialist policies.

Considering how low Act is polling, they don't have anything to loose. As eventually Epsom voters will stop voting for Act. If doing so doesn't get any extra right bloc MPs into parliament.

gzt

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#1951244 3-Feb-2018 21:16

The ACT party has updated their climate policy. The previous position was total denial. The new position is something like yeah ok maybe but it won't hurt us.

Pumpedd

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#1951254 3-Feb-2018 22:24

Who is ACT? One person?

I like the guy but am surprised his electorate returned him when they offer so little in reality.

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bmt

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#1951454 4-Feb-2018 16:03

Based on their election night shindig you would have to say the party is all but dead.. Seymour has been an MP for a while so at least has credibility but there is nobody else worthy of being elected. If it's just National + ACT at the next election, unless ACT can bring something more to the table (i.e poll high enough for a second MP) there is no point in National giving them the breath of life anymore.

GV27

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#1951529 4-Feb-2018 17:41

gzt:
Pumpedd:

gzt:
elpenguino: I don't think Bennett has the smarts to succeed - I suspect she is dep leader only to bring a show of gender balance.

It seems to me she handled difficult portfolios quite well in the media spotlight. I can't imagine anyone else doing as well with those portfolios. Instant name recognition. Personally I'd consider her the leading candidate.

I blame her for the housing mess..she was minister of housing....she also stripped out the welfare system that contributed substantially to child poverty.

All under the leadership of John Key as I recall. Is there an alternative universe in which the national party does not do this kind of stuff?

Boy is your mind going to be blown if you look at what happened to house prices under Labour from 1999 - 2008 and what they did about it.

Fred99

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#1951545 4-Feb-2018 18:46

GV27:

gzt:
Pumpedd:

gzt:
elpenguino: I don't think Bennett has the smarts to succeed - I suspect she is dep leader only to bring a show of gender balance.

It seems to me she handled difficult portfolios quite well in the media spotlight. I can't imagine anyone else doing as well with those portfolios. Instant name recognition. Personally I'd consider her the leading candidate.

I blame her for the housing mess..she was minister of housing....she also stripped out the welfare system that contributed substantially to child poverty.

All under the leadership of John Key as I recall. Is there an alternative universe in which the national party does not do this kind of stuff?

Boy is your mind going to be blown if you look at what happened to house prices under Labour from 1999 - 2008 and what they did about it.

OK - blow my mind.

What was the median house price in Auckland then - expressed as a multiple of the median household income?

How did the peak in value/income compare to past cycles, and what's happened since 2008?

GV27

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#1951548 4-Feb-2018 18:58

Fred99:

OK - blow my mind.

What was the median house price in Auckland then - expressed as a multiple of the median household income?

How did the peak in value/income compare to past cycles, and what's happened since 2008?

What ever you think National didn't do about housing, Labour did less. Unless you want to claim the GFC as being a Labour Party acheivement.

Fred99

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#1951578 4-Feb-2018 19:42

GV27:

What ever you think National didn't do about housing, Labour did less. Unless you want to claim the GFC as being a Labour Party acheivement.

Arguably, the rest of NZ isn't too bad and it's an Auckland chart which demands attention, especially as that's the place where immigration was concentrated, despite repeated claims that it was the regions who needed cheap immigrant labour:

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GV27

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#1951581 4-Feb-2018 19:50

Fred99:
GV27:

What ever you think National didn't do about housing, Labour did less. Unless you want to claim the GFC as being a Labour Party acheivement.

Arguably, the rest of NZ isn't too bad and it's an Auckland chart which demands attention, especially as that's the place where immigration was concentrated, despite repeated claims that it was the regions who needed cheap immigrant labour:

Try one that stretches back to 1999. Or are we wilfully ignoring that?

Fred99

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#1951585 4-Feb-2018 20:04

GV27:

Try one that stretches back to 1999. Or are we wilfully ignoring that?

No:

House prices increased in NZ - expressed as a multiple of household income - from about 5 when John Key took the reins - to about 8 when he quit.

GV27

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#1951590 4-Feb-2018 20:13

Fred99:
GV27:

Try one that stretches back to 1999. Or are we wilfully ignoring that?

No:

House prices increased in NZ - expressed as a multiple of household income - from about 5 when John Key took the reins - to about 8 when he quit.

And? People here seem to be under the illusion this solely happened under National's watch. That simply isn't the case, and Labour were just as guilty as National were of doing bugger all about it.

Fred99

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#1951593 4-Feb-2018 20:23

GV27:
Fred99:

GV27:

Try one that stretches back to 1999. Or are we wilfully ignoring that?

No:

House prices increased in NZ - expressed as a multiple of household income - from about 5 when John Key took the reins - to about 8 when he quit.

And? People here seem to be under the illusion this solely happened under National's watch. That simply isn't the case, and Labour were just as guilty as National were of doing bugger all about it.

The widening gap in unaffordability and in Akl vs (rest of) NZ house prices DID happen under Key.

In the Trump thread I complain about "whataboutism" - using hand-picked failures of the past, with the benefit of hindsight to make unfair comparisons.

The house price:income ratio in NZ is now terribly unaffordable - and needs to be fixed - before interest rates rise. Going back three and more parliamentary terms to argue that "they" didn't do anything about it - then turning that around to melt like a snowflake when someone finally does hope to do something about it - and to argue that "the market" will sort it out when the market seems to have failed (for many NZers) is extremely disingenuous, in my humble opinion.

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