Ukraine War discussion

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#2879901 6-Mar-2022 18:08

cruxis:

The sanctions means war is pretty much declared. Who is going to attack first..... I bet he will use a chemical weapon on the battlefield, Just to give a big FU finger to NATO. Nato has not defined any "red lines" have they?

No. Plenty exist though. if you hold back and hold back and hold back, in the interests of avoiding conflict, when that breaks, it breaks. Who are Russia's allies????

Perhaps China, but they trade with everyone, I suspect growth and honour will exceed being a partner to a low life such as Putler. While the West would be happier to pay $55 for a Chinese skilsaw, many might be happy to pay $155 for an American or German one that is better? Don't get dragged down by one man...

tdgeek

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#2879902 6-Mar-2022 18:14

gzt: Morons harassing people of Russian descent in NZ. Russian Orthodox church vandalized:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/300532686/russian-kiwis-copping-abuse-and-harassment-in-wake-of-ukraine-invasion

Thats terrible. maybe they can check the population of Russia. Its ONE, therein lies the problem.

gzt

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#2879903 6-Mar-2022 18:21

Opinion polls in Finland and Sweden are indicating desire for NATO membership. The issue is expected to influence upcoming elections:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60626536

tdgeek

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#2879905 6-Mar-2022 18:28

gzt: Opinion polls in Finland and Sweden are indicating desire for NATO membership. The issue is expected to influence upcoming elections:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60626536

If Russia invaded them there is no way NATO would sit and watch. But they are sitting and watching in Ukraine.Ok, hindsight, but right now this isnt a military vs military conflict, Putin is going after innocent people, and buildings, so he can get his country back. But its not his country.

Medium term (6 months) Putin is screwed. Russia is screwed. The latter need to act, to get back to normal and Putin is tried for war crimes. Russia can then say "it was him" the West will wear that, depending on the track of the successor

Batman

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#2879928 6-Mar-2022 18:58

ezbee:

Apparently Germany is not top of list of countries dependent on green Russian Gas.

Its a long list... If this is accurate representation, I thought Germany was at top.

Share of gas supply from Russia in Europe in 2020, by selected country
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

i thought Germany use coal

Rikkitic

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#2879932 6-Mar-2022 19:05

gzt: Morons harassing people of Russian descent in NZ. Russian Orthodox church vandalized:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/300532686/russian-kiwis-copping-abuse-and-harassment-in-wake-of-ukraine-invasion

Where do these idiots come from? Maybe it is time to start harassing people with dumb ideas!

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

K8Toledo

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#2879939 6-Mar-2022 19:12

Putin will use nuclear weapons, the Americans are quite sure about this. Also Russian nuclear doctrine was altered in 2020 lowering the safety threshold level.

The direct line to Russian Ministry of Defence is at NATO's European Command Centre and operated by lower level staff in both USA & Russia. It's not the same one used after the Cuban Missile Crisis.

I don't have the source links for above but will post them soon

tdgeek

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#2879953 6-Mar-2022 19:43

K8Toledo:

Putin will use nuclear weapons, the Americans are quite sure about this. Also Russian nuclear doctrine was altered in 2020 lowering the safety threshold level.

The direct line to Russian Ministry of Defence is at NATO's European Command Centre and operated by lower level staff in both USA & Russia. It's not the same one used after the Cuban Missile Crisis.

I don't have the source links for above but will post them soon

In the Cuba Crisis and the overall Cold War, leaders of the USSR and the USA weren't stupid. Push the boundaries but not stupid.

Putin could. When his own people give up, and he sues them for his solo ego, go down with the ship, take the ship down possibly. Im not sure how good The US is to intercept them?

ezbee

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#2879962 6-Mar-2022 20:11

K8Toledo
I think that is very alarmist.

If Putin does not care for his family everyone around him sure does.
Preserving your luxuries of life might be another motivation for Oligarchy used to nicer things of life.

Plus there is a chain of command, so chief of nuclear force has to make same decision.
Considering corruption they have been used to many luxuries of life too, families etc.
Kill the chance of a liveable Russia or kill Putin.

Lower ranks I would grant you, but order has to get to them, with checks and balances after scare of Cuban Missile crisis.
Its seems that commanders there did have independent capability, perhaps even Cubans had access to tactical nukes.
This has been tightened up after dangers were fully realized, these are not weapons with normal consequences.
For the nation launching them.

MAD.

Kookoo

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#2879975 6-Mar-2022 21:04

Sidestep:

Chancellor Scholz's just approved building two LNG import terminals, one at Brunsbüttel, by Dutch energy infrastructure specialist Gasunie - and one to the west at Wilhelmshaven.

They'll take years to build. Both Germany and Italy are looking to (non-Russian) coal to partly replace Russian gas, but Germany's been closing it's coal fired plants.

In an 'Every cloud has a silver lining' scenario, here in the Oilpatch a popular bumper sticker on lifted pickup trucks - which have lately had nothing better to do than meander through the streets rolling coal on Teslas - says “Please God, give me one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away this time.”

It looks like their prayers have been answered, $120 - and rising - oil's a roughneck's wet dream.

What you're forgetting is the Leviathan Field which only started production 2 years ago. It won't last but with intensive production it can easily buy the time for Germany to get to its renewables dream without Russian gas.

Hello, Ground!

Kookoo

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#2879980 6-Mar-2022 21:20

Batman:
this will only end when either Putin or Zelensky is dead. could be days could be years.

I don't think Zelenskyy's death will be the end of it. I suspect that's one of the reasons he's still alive to be honest.

Hello, Ground!

neb

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#2879990 6-Mar-2022 22:39

freitasm:
I personally think not defending Ukraine is the same as Chamberlain giving away the Sudetenland.

The Sudetenland is a bad analogy for the current situation because most people are only familiar with Munich and peace in our time, which is only a fraction of the story.

The problem goes back to the end of WWI. Woodrow Wilson wanted to reorganise Europe on based ethnic boundaries, the French wanted to do it based on whatever would hurt Germany the most. The French got their way, and Czechoslovakia ended up with 3.5 million Germans inside their front lines, a perfect casus belli for another war and a lose/lose situation for the Czechs: If they fortified their political border they'd have several million enemy combatants inside the fortress, if they fortified their ethnic border they'd be de facto admitting the Sudetenland was German not Czech.

At the time of Munich, the Czechs had one of the best militaries in Europe, the veterans of the Czech Legions, highly experienced and motivated, and decent weapons like the vz. 38 just entering production which outperformed the Panzer I and II's Germany had at the time. However they were totally hamstrung by the mess the French had gifted them and also relied on support from other countries to continue the fight long term.

In 1938, Germany and Czechoslovakia were prepared for war, other countries and in particular the UK were unprepared. Hitler really, really wanted to start a war over the Sudetenland and was livid when the Allies caved in to his demands, since he'd been cheated of the opportunity for his war. Neither the UK nor France were under any illusion that war was coming, all they wanted was more time to rearm, especially the UK. So the Sudetenland was a delaying tactic, not an appeasement, with "peace in our time" being aimed more at the Germans than the British. The shock of Munich finally cleared the way for increased military spending and rearmament in the UK, with another two years to wind up production and stockpiling before it was actually needed.

neb

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#2879991 6-Mar-2022 22:43

shk292: Uk under Boris is leading the way in Europe both in strength of sanctions and in materiel aid.

Ah, I see what the problem is: You're facing the wrong way, and think the UK is at the front of sanctions. Turn around 180 degrees and you'll see the true picture.

The UK is very heavily tied to oligarch money, it's not called Londongrad for nothing. They've dragged their feet more than any other EU country on this.

neb

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#2879993 6-Mar-2022 22:48

Rikkitic:
gzt: Morons harassing people of Russian descent in NZ. Russian Orthodox church vandalized:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/300532686/russian-kiwis-copping-abuse-and-harassment-in-wake-of-ukraine-invasion

Where do these idiots come from?

The Wellington anti-vaxxer hooligans had to find a new hobby...

Batman

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#2880003 7-Mar-2022 06:07

Kookoo:
Batman:

this will only end when either Putin or Zelensky is dead. could be days could be years.

I don't think Zelenskyy's death will be the end of it. I suspect that's one of the reasons he's still alive to be honest.

no i think Ukraine will surrender once Zelensky is dead. what's the point of this entire kamikaze.

America is not going to help, Nato is not going to help, if they continue the only result is all Ukrainians die. what's the point.

in terms of Russia

I don't see how Russia will stop if Putin is alive. he's going to do what he wants to do and nobody will stop him. which is kill anyone in the way, destroy anything the eye can see.

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