2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3261048 18-Jul-2024 14:24

Sideface: Just when you thought things couldn't get worse ...

The NY Times - Biden Tests Positive for Covid

Don't you mean better? He's finally got a reason to bow out gracefully, and others who want him to leave have a real argument in favour.

TeaLeaf

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#3261053 18-Jul-2024 14:41

kingdragonfly: It also buys more time for Democrats on Capitol Hill to come together, as many Democratic lawmakers privately hope they will, and ask Biden to step down from the ticket.
...

I am expecting this. Biden said in the first interview with abc, when asked what would it take, he said if they (his congress, senators etc) came to him and told him he cant win, or something similar. Well that has already begun now. With him supposedly being more open to handing the torch over, and now a dose of covid, I think it is becoming much more likely.

But the question is, if Biden who is closest to Trump in the polls, who will they likely choose as a nominee and VP?

Oddly, July 12th polling to test other candidates vs Trump, Biden +2 Newsom +2 Harris+1, Whitmer-Even

It was clear they had reigned things in, and I think ppl were expecting Trumps sentencing, not a change which in effect changes the constitution and put his Sentencing for the "hush money" case on pause.

I personally think, just based off reading expert prosecutor and justice type opinions that it wont get over turned. This will remind people what Trump is.

Then there is the investigation into Clarence Thomas, who went out of his way to in effect help Trumps legal woes.

Biden is pushing through this SCOTUS bill which will see 18year terms, a bi partisan wegting, and importantly a tightning on the rules of donations etc. But of course if trump gets through, gone, plus him stacking two more with two set to retire next term.

There really is so much on the line, I really do hope the swing voters do get the message and some how they repair voters in the muslim communities in swing states, they need to really understand what they would be voting away and the potential for persecution.

gzt

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#3261058 18-Jul-2024 15:07

quickymart:
gzt: In 2016 Moore picked Trump when Lichtman picked Clinton ; ).
Ah no.
https://www.american.edu/media/news/092616-13-keys-prediction.cfm

Great catch! Yes, Moore's or Hasan's claim not mine. Although it's possible I summarised that part incorrectly after watching..

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#3261059 18-Jul-2024 15:12

The Washington Post - Biden set to announce support for major Supreme Court changes

16 July 2024

President Biden is finalizing plans to endorse major changes to the Supreme Court in the coming weeks, including proposals for legislation to establish term limits for the justices and an enforceable ethics code ...

He is also weighing whether to call for a constitutional amendment to eliminate broad immunity for presidents and other constitutional officeholders ...

Term limits and an ethics code would be subject to congressional approval, which would face long odds in the Republican-controlled House and a slim Democratic majority in the Senate.

Under current rules, passage in the Senate would require 60 votes.

A constitutional amendment requires even more hurdles, including two-thirds support of both chambers, or by a convention of two-thirds of the states, and then approval by three-fourths of state legislatures.

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#3261060 18-Jul-2024 15:21

TeaLeaf: , then Im not sure how they are going to recover those votes even with booting old joe out. One would hope the Dems have read what has said and are formulating a plan.

Sure definitely lost some votes - As the Arab-American Democratic Mayor of Dearborn says in an interview elsewhere there's no way he's going campaigning into someone's house and telling them to vote Biden for President in very real cases where the rest of the family is under rubble in Gaza from American bombs supplied freely to Netanyahu who's playing stay out of jail since 2019 to the best of his ability at everyone's expense.

Having said that as wrong as it is - it's not 100% clear if that's really an issue for Biden's electability. Moore did not back up his numbers in the interview I linked. Being right in 2016 seemed to be his best shot at adding it up.

ezbee

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#3261064 18-Jul-2024 15:47

gzt:
TeaLeaf: , then Im not sure how they are going to recover those votes even with booting old joe out. One would hope the Dems have read what has said and are formulating a plan.

Sure definitely lost some votes - As the Arab-American Democratic Mayor of Dearborn says in an interview elsewhere there's no way he's going campaigning into someone's house and telling them to vote Biden for President in very real cases where the rest of the family is under rubble in Gaza from American bombs supplied freely to Netanyahu who's playing stay out of jail since 2019 to the best of his ability at everyone's expense.

Having said that as wrong as it is - it's not 100% clear if that's really an issue for Biden's electability. Moore did not back up his numbers in the interview I linked. Being right in 2016 seemed to be his best shot at adding it up.

That does not make complete sense as making it easier for Trump to win helps GAZA even less.
Trump could even give his mate Bibi the green light to go harder and do whatever he wants.
Was it not Trump who did the embassy move to Jerusalem?
So then in new term Trump is likely to give more comfort to Bibi on occupying west bank too.

TeaLeaf

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#3261082 18-Jul-2024 17:47

gzt:
Moore did not back up his numbers in the interview I linked. Being right in 2016 seemed to be his best shot at adding it up.

Im pretty sure he mentioned hundreds of thousands in the MSNBC interview on the same topic I mentioned from a week or so ago, maybe just search YT for msnbc michael moore Biden.

ezbee:
Trump could even give his mate Bibi the green light to go harder and do whatever he wants.

RE Trump and Gaza war, this is what I think young voters especially and maybe middle eastern voters, do not realise just how much more intense Repub support would be given aipac is a major donor to Repubs. Didnt Trump even say in the debate when, what would you say to Israel? something like "Id tell him to finish the job".

Meanwhile in Rus they are celebrating their cyber hybrid attack ok US democracy.

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TeaLeaf

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#3261087 18-Jul-2024 18:05

Sideface:

The Washington Post

When it was said earlier in the week re SCOTUS bill, I thought, even if this passes how can you trump-proof it.

This bit from the article quoting Trump “We have to fight for our Fair and Independent Courts, and protect our Country.”

The guy just states the opposite of the Truth like Rus does to create normalisation of propaganda/disinformation. One big gas light is what he is.

I was listening to the Daily (NYP) pod while waiting for my doctor today, it was quite a good run through of the impact Clarence Thomas has made on all of Trumps legal woes. Canon essentially re wrote his 9 page essay on why Jack Smith is unconstitutional (it gave a brief history on how they got to DOJ special counsels instead of just rogue ones who they thought could wield to much power) and threw the strongest case out.

So its not just the President is completely immune if acting under presidential duties part that is a problem, its the DOJ cant use its lawyers etc. Even though the law was changed so that they had to use them post Clinton.

What I dont get is how so many Americans are not protesting all of it. Its almost like everyone of them are talking about something that is obviously corrupt like its just a thing that happened. Like they dont understand he could do whatever he wants to the country and their liberty and there is nothing anybody can do about it.

He causes all this violence, talks violence, incites violence, and when somebody finally has enough of it and takes action, he blames the Dems for inciting violence by attacking him by simply stating facts about him.

I dont get it, I really cannot understand the US being conned and they say nothing aside from the left leaning media.

gzt

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#3261169 18-Jul-2024 20:01

That does not make complete sense as making it easier for Trump to win helps GAZA even less.

Look at it as an option to choose which one is providing the falling bombs as you have more or less stated and you can understand why some in that position would not be motivated to vote for either one.

The major dimension of American politics recently has been both which 50% vote and for who - but more so which remaining 25% voting for each of the two parties voters can be disillusioned and don't vote at all for their usual party.

You might also be missing that Arab-Americans are a diverse group and by no means all of that group are deeply connected to Gaza and what happens there.

TeaLeaf

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#3261172 18-Jul-2024 20:18

gzt:

The major dimension of American politics recently has been both which 50% vote and for who - but more so which remaining 25% voting for each of the two parties voters can be disillusioned and don't vote at all for their usual party.

You might also be missing that Arab-Americans are a diverse group and by no means all of that group are deeply connected to Gaza and what happens there.

For me the swing voters are the no trumper repubs who are disillusioned with Biden and pretty much that massive group that want any body but Trump and Biden. But Harris, while very competent, comes across cold at times, but maybe those groups would be fine with the personality if there is lots of substance.

Yes that was my first thought when I watched Moore on MSNBC calling for Biden but then talking about these large number of middle eastern groups that he won in 2020 will be the cause of his loss. My thoughts were, surely arab-americans will know its far more nuanced than it was just about Joe, when really its historically expected from the US and most certainly from Repubs. Did Moore poll this group? Did he factor in many are aware of it could have been worse under Trump? Did he ask them all if they understand the far right groups including extremely racial groups behind maga.......

But on the other hand, sure, I get his point, but I dont know if that will lose him the election, with things cooling down and Biden's political instincts kicking in re aid only packages etc.

I dunno, but Im not sure if Moore does either ;-p

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#3261189 18-Jul-2024 21:48

The only thing that can be said for sure it's a close election and too close for polls. Biden has many advantages and his team have a plan to win it.

As in that interview - the well known democratic politicians on the left of the party like Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, and Sanders are all backing Biden-Harris and are very aligned on policy.

First thing to be said - Harris is just not interested in a damaging fight. Second - It's really not clear to anyone if Harris can make the step up and win in that short timeframe. Imo Harris is very capable but a national campaign is really something right up there. If Harris had to I'm sure she would. It's not at all clear to Harris or anyone else that she has to. Probably the exact opposite so far.

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#3261198 18-Jul-2024 22:43

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/18/politics/trump-biden-analysis-2024/index.html

An interesting analysis on where the two candidates stand at the moment; basically Trump is riding high after his assassination attempt, and Biden is not doing so well, especially with people who think he should step aside (in part) due to his age.

gzt

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#3261206 18-Jul-2024 23:14

There's no polling in that article. I don't think it mentioned even one policy. That's a very beltway and cable perspective on the whole thing. One thing it does hint without saying..

The Republican Party is having a fantastic nomination convention. It is extremely well presented and televisual. Probably the greatest convention ever in the history of Republican conventions ; ))

After that fantastic performance there is a lot riding on the Democratic Party convention coming up next month. I cannot imagine it will be 50% as good as that Republican convention. I cannot imagine it. Yet, maybe that is what it now has to be.

neb

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#3261211 18-Jul-2024 23:59

TeaLeaf: What I dont get is how so many Americans are not protesting all of it. Its almost like everyone of them are talking about something that is obviously corrupt like its just a thing that happened. Like they dont understand he could do whatever he wants to the country and their liberty and there is nothing anybody can do about it.

For the same reason that so many other countries have slipped into authoritarianism and totalitarianism, mostly a "it really can't get as bad as people say, and if we keep our heads down and grit our teeth when required it'll all pass over". Pastor Martin Niemoller has the most succint summary of this.

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#3261213 19-Jul-2024 00:55

In this MSNBC interview Moore provides some numbers. 2-300,000 Arab-Americans and Muslim voters in Michigan*. 60% of that demographic voted for Biden in 2020 less than 20% will vote for Biden in 2024*. Skip to 4:50 for the numbers past the usual Biden needs a checkup stuff.

* Population Michigan official 211,000 Arab-American, 242,000 religion Muslim.
** I think Moore above is referencing a poll over three states not only Michigan.

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