Ukraine War discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2880004 7-Mar-2022 06:08

Kookoo:
Batman:

this will only end when either Putin or Zelensky is dead. could be days could be years.

I don't think Zelenskyy's death will be the end of it. I suspect that's one of the reasons he's still alive to be honest.

i think the reason he's still alive is because the entire Ukraine army is in Kyiv from day 1 and once the army is weakened he's dead.

Sidestep

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#2880006 7-Mar-2022 06:22

Kookoo:

What you're forgetting is the Leviathan Field which only started production 2 years ago. It won't last but with intensive production it can easily buy the time for Germany to get to its renewables dream without Russian gas.

Israel's Leviathan field? That's accounted for. It's fully ramped up over the last year and supplying Europe at almost maximum capacity.
The field's volume-constrained to exporting through a pipeline to Egypt for liquefaction.

The export capacity of Egypt's Damietta facility's already been pre-sold (for 25 years!) for European supply with regasification mainly at Sagunto in Spain.
Egypt's other facility at Idku looks to have a large chunk of production tied up in term contracts, mainly re-gassing via the Netherland's Gate Terminal hub. There's very little left for the spot market.

Australia has limited spare capacity and there are already five LNG tankers lined up to pass through the Suez Canal.

Things are looking a bit dire. LNG Imports are close to reaching Europe’s total regasification capacity.
Their large-scale LNG terminal maximum is 230 billion cubic metres, so about 40% of Europe’s gas demand, and there's a lack of gas storage space.

The US (soothingly) says it's prepared for even a complete cut-off of Gazprom's supply and aims to permanently reduce Europe's Russian reliance.
But existing locked-in supply contracts around the world limit how much spare production is available to plug a demand gap that size. Negotiations will be intense.
All it would take is a small disruption - at say, Freeport or Corpus Christi terminals (in Texas) - the US's busiest LNG ports - and the fan will be flinging brown stuff..

It does look like the US is going to give it a try though, there are 28 tankers (a record I think) lining up near U.S. Gulf Coast LNG ports.
Over two-thirds are signaling European destinations, and it looks like they're being serviced first (at the expense of Asian destinations)
At this stage the United States is approaching its' full LNG export capacity, so any diversions to Eurpoe will be at the expense of the rest of the world.

The current supply shock serves as a strong argument that true energy security relies on 'sovereign' energy production — which should be achievable with renewables.
It's going to spur the acceleration of wind and solar, battery storage and hydrogen across Europe - and the world. But 'buying the time' for that to happen will be tight.

The Paris treaty on global warming doesn't give signatories the option of increasing emissions.
It may have to be set aside for now.

Sidestep

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#2880067 7-Mar-2022 07:31

Massive pressure now on Warsaw on to provide Ukraine with those MiG-29s - and be given replacement F-16s by the US.

Canada - at 1.4 million people - has the largest number of Ukrainians (or those with Ukrainian heritage) outside of Russia and Ukraine itself.
My wife's of Ukrainian descent, and judging by the number of Ukrainian flags now flying in the neighbourhood so are many others.

Groups - like the Canadian-Ukrainian Brigade - are visible around the city, assisting volunteers to fly to Europe and join the International Legion of Territorial Defence of Ukraine.
Dozens - maybe hundreds - of locals have gone. Some are already sending back social media posts of themselves in Ukraine. That happened fast.

The Government's warning that traveling to Ukraine with no military training is dangerous (really?), and may be illegal.
They're encouraging people to enlist with the Canadian Armed Forces instead.
Lawyers are rushing to review the 'Foreign Enlistment Act' (passed in 1937 to keep Canada neutral during the Spanish Civil War) and understand how it applies today.

I can't see this working out well.

I'm sure any Canadian caught by the Russians will be assumed to be a US 'security contractor' like the Blackwater - Constellis people who were killed in Iraq.
Of course a good number of the supposed 16,000 volunteers who've arrived in Ukraine WILL be US military, joining the hundreds of 'advisors' already there.

The C-UB says Geneva conventions cover members of militias or volunteer corps as long as they're uniformed.
I hope they never have to test that out.

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#2880071 7-Mar-2022 07:52

Israel trying to help https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ukraine-war-unexpected-new-player-attempting-mediation-with-russia/NIKYMK5HKHVX5BGQNU5MIWMMS4/

Batman

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#2880074 7-Mar-2022 07:59

Sidestep:

Massive pressure now on Warsaw on to provide Ukraine with those MiG-29s - and be given replacement F-16s by the US.

Canada - at 1.4 million people - has the largest number of Ukrainians (or those with Ukrainian heritage) outside of Russia and Ukraine itself.
My wife's of Ukrainian descent, and judging by the number of Ukrainian flags now flying in the neighbourhood so are many others.

Groups - like the Canadian-Ukrainian Brigade - are visible around the city, assisting volunteers to fly to Europe and join the International Legion of Territorial Defence of Ukraine.
Dozens - maybe hundreds - of locals have gone. Some are already sending back social media posts of themselves in Ukraine. That happened fast.

The Government's warning that traveling to Ukraine with no military training is dangerous (really?), and may be illegal.
They're encouraging people to enlist with the Canadian Armed Forces instead.
Lawyers are rushing to review the 'Foreign Enlistment Act' (passed in 1937 to keep Canada neutral during the Spanish Civil War) and understand how it applies today.

I can't see this working out well.

I'm sure any Canadian caught by the Russians will be assumed to be a US 'security contractor' like the Blackwater - Constellis people who were killed in Iraq.
Of course a good number of the supposed 16,000 volunteers who've arrived in Ukraine WILL be US military, joining the hundreds of 'advisors' already there.

The C-UB says Geneva conventions cover members of militias or volunteer corps as long as they're uniformed.
I hope they never have to test that out.

Russia Putin has said any outside attempts to help is a declaration of nuclear war on 5/3/2022

tdgeek

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#2880077 7-Mar-2022 08:07

Batman:

Russia Putin has said any outside attempts to help is a declaration of nuclear war

Hasn't there been financial and weapons, ammunition assistance from day one?. Does that not count?

Batman

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#2880117 7-Mar-2022 10:31

You will have to ask Putin I'm just relaying what he said 48hrs ago (5/3/2022 - I think that's about day 10)

The way i see this

- madman big bully

-> badly bruised ego

-> backed into a big corner economically

-> retaliates by lashing out in Ukraine with wanton abandon

-> makes a threat of nuclear warfare because he has no more cards to play

CruciasNZ

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#2880160 7-Mar-2022 10:54

Sidestep:

The C-UB says Geneva conventions cover members of militias or volunteer corps as long as they're uniformed.
I hope they never have to test that out.

Read some articles covering RU soldiers that have surrendered, and one of the things that stuck out was that the RU army is allowing wounded soldiers to die and then cremating them (and the bodies recovered from combat) rather than ship them home. Article didn't say why, but reading between lines implies that it's so they can keep under-reporting RU deaths. Grains of salt required because sources are Ukrainian army and therefore biased. If true, I very much doubt they'll treat international prisoners well.

Saw another article today pondering if Putin has cancer, since he's always so far away from advisors in photos (COVID & compromised immune system) and would also explain the irrational rush in order to secure a legacy he views through a twisted lens.

Both are very James Bond villainy

EDIT: Also that Ukrainian gold medalist in the gymnastic comp has commendable self control. In his situation I wouldn't share a podium with a Russian athlete that's taped a "Z" onto his uniform in solidarity with the russian army.

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ezbee

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#2880180 7-Mar-2022 12:44

The damage they have done to property already, amounts to billions ?
Large number of people pushed into poverty,
anything they had in their property and business gone.

Where would money come from to rebuild ?
This will result in generational poverty for Ukrainians either way.

Suppose if you are in Putin's inner circle you are looking at ...
Buying land and assets on the cheap from people who have no choice but to sell,
seize property and assets from those that don't as traitors.
Win Win.

Control of all the ports allows Putin to clip the ticket of bulk goods, grain, minerals that are large part of Ukraine economy.
Even if invasion grinds to a halt. Apparently Ukraine's neighbors like Moldova use them too, so they are worried

The long desk ...
Could be cooties, he seemed to be very interested in sitting close to the airline stewardesses the other day.

cruxis

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#2880334 7-Mar-2022 15:15

You are afraid to clear our skies because you are afraid of Russia," the soldier told Fox News in Kyiv.

"You are a nation of f***ing liars. We give our nuclear power and our nuclear weapons for your guarantees – your guarantees is nothing."

"

Hes not wrong there, Taiwan should restart their nuke program before it is to late for them. A Western guarantee means nothing.

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#2880341 7-Mar-2022 15:28

Any country that hadn't already got the message after Libya compared to North Korea is definitely learning it now. There are likely to be a lot of discussions happening right now in countries where there had been significant historical debate over whether or not to remain non-nuclear. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Iran, Saudi Arabia. We could even see the start of debates in other places in Europe where it would have previously been unthinkable. Even Australia has to be looking at this situation and realising that the US is not going to defend her (or us, for that matter) against a nuclear-armed China.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

Kookoo

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#2880743 7-Mar-2022 21:16

ezbee:

The long desk ...
Could be cooties, he seemed to be very interested in sitting close to the airline stewardesses the other day.

You mean this session here with the ghost hand? That's a green screen.

Hello, Ground!

K8Toledo

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#2880748 7-Mar-2022 21:37

Regarding my earlier post that America thinks Putin is likely to use nuclear weapons:

Russia’s nuclear alert means Nato must tread carefully.

Also a correction-

The direct line to Russian Ministry of Defence is operated by US European Command, not NATO.

And in other news.....

Source.

K8Toledo

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#2880756 7-Mar-2022 22:13

tdgeek:

Batman:

Russia Putin has said any outside attempts to help is a declaration of nuclear war

Hasn't there been financial and weapons, ammunition assistance from day one?. Does that not count?

"Intervene" likely implied direct intervention, but Putin may be throwing his toys out of the cot now sanctions are affecting the Rus economy.

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#2880773 7-Mar-2022 23:48

K8Toledo:

"Intervene" likely implied direct intervention, but Putin may be throwing his toys out of the cot now sanctions are affecting the Rus economy.

Its getting tense. At the start of this the cliche was outmanned and outgunned. Its changed a lot. UKR smaller army, has had many Reservists added then the 18-60 males who are being armed with guns. As above a LOT of strong weapons are flowing in. They said the 65km convoy was in waiting for Kviv to be ready to go in. Now, its stated they had 3 days food and fuel so they are stuck and exposed. Continual examples of Russian logistics fails. Tonight a piece that if the want to go in to Odessa (I think) they will struggle to provide a supply line. Another, example. They have fired 670 missiles, now it turns out 270 of those were the first 2 days, so the last 11 have been scaled back. Running low possibly. UKR still has aircraft, they seem to be losing disproportionately less then Russia in terms of military hardware.

Its all unravelling.

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