2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3261219 19-Jul-2024 07:25

TeaLeaf:

...

Oddly, July 12th polling to test other candidates vs Trump, Biden +2 Newsom +2 Harris+1, Whitmer-Even

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This is how BET365 sees it for the Dems.

and for the whole thing:

Did Eric Clapton really think she looked wonderful...or was it after the 15th outfit she tried on and he just wanted to get to the party and get a drink?

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261226 19-Jul-2024 08:07

gzt: In this MSNBC interview Moore provides some numbers.

thanks for posting, yes thats the one I was referring to.

they are not insignificant numbers, the difference of 40% from the ~250000 is ~100000, that could be decisive. I havnt watched it again yet, but from memory, I dont recall how they got the numbers in his essay. Im assuming it is polling, so possibly not accurate, but either way shows the dems one clear strategy to focus on.

However, news coming Schumer and Pelosi have directly asked Biden to step aside.

To aid to that, the latest poll showing post shooting Trump gaining 3 points. However they asked also key swing states if you were to decide between Trump and a youngger Dem leader, I think 53% is the figure, said they would choose the younger democrat, given only 40% are currently supporting Biden, those are big numbers and could be the final decision maker for a covid stricken Biden.

I think they would have to chose a VP running mate strategically, ideally it would be Gretchen but I just dont see them going that route, Newsom would be the obvious choice but both are from Cali which wouldnt go down well with many of the haters of Cali (a lot of the country). But Im not sure who else is a good prosecutor or debater.....

floydbloke:

and for the whole thing:

quite depressing really. but the stats of voters wanting neither Trump or Biden was huge, so that could flip with changes I suppose.

NZ needs to start considering its defense posture and getting much closer to key allies outside the US.

gzt

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#3261227 19-Jul-2024 08:16

That is clearly not an election poll prediction. Many of those named are not candidates.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261243 19-Jul-2024 08:35

gzt: That is clearly not an election poll prediction. Many of those named are not candidates.

I think they just "could bes, but unlikely's, hence their odds.

If Kamala gets handed the torch her odds will change, if she is $4 as VP with Biden having been defiant stating hes running. thats how I read them anyway.

I think Obama would have very likely been the first US female pres if she had wanted the job, but she also would have needed a lead up period to float the name etc.

Biden has done something incredible, especially given the age, he wont get the accolades he deserves. hes made a couple of bad moves which were near unavoidable, and the Repub+ (and you know who) has just jumped on them creating chaos. Truely sucks that lying and corruption can have so much influence.

floydbloke

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#3261245 19-Jul-2024 08:42

TeaLeaf:

gzt: That is clearly not an election poll prediction. Many of those named are not candidates.

I think they just "could bes, but unlikely's, hence their odds.

If Kamala gets handed the torch her odds will change, if she is $4 as VP with Biden having been defiant stating hes running.

and will end any chance of an outside congress change like Obama (I think she would have very likely been the first US female pres if she had wanted the job, but she also would have needed a lead up period to float the name etc).

Yeah, I really just wanted to highlight that the bookies (and their algorithms) think it's more likely that Harris will be the Democrats presidential candidate over Biden.

Did Eric Clapton really think she looked wonderful...or was it after the 15th outfit she tried on and he just wanted to get to the party and get a drink?

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261248 19-Jul-2024 08:50

floydbloke:

Yeah, I really just wanted to highlight that the bookies (and their algorithms) think it's more likely that Harris will be the Democrats presidential candidate over Biden.

yes its a fair point, for people to have that much confidence she would is interesting, given Biden digging in further and further the more he was pressured.

it will be interesting if he does step down before the convention to see how much the odds change.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261321 19-Jul-2024 10:33

First major poll since assassination attempt shows Trump losing to a younger Democrat in swing states | The Independent

Summary of the latest poll (emrson college), quite clearly shows a younger democrat up on Trump, conversely Trump has taken this from nearly even to a clear lead since the shooting over Biden. Biden could be cooked.

Harris doesnt have some personal qualities, awkward moments etc. It is quite possible she doesnt get the big job, it really depends how they go about it, supposedly a few ways of replacing.

There was that Democrat party poll of 15000 RV's which showed all of those polled well ahead of Biden & Harris for preference. Mark Kelly from Arizona was one and Ive seen two articles now suggesting he is likely to take over from Biden should he pull out.

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quickymart

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#3261323 19-Jul-2024 10:37

He doesn't have the same level of name recognition as Harris, though - I would say even Gavin Newsom would rank higher than Kelly.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261326 19-Jul-2024 10:41

quickymart:

He doesn't have the same level of name recognition as Harris, though - I would say even Gavin Newsom would rank higher than Kelly.

Supposedly he does, but Newsom is the guy on TV a lot, often defending Biden with a really opposite personability to Harris, which is her weak point, a rather strong one. But either way she needs to stay in one of the slots.

It appears it was Mark Kelly, Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Witmer that were polling roughly 5 points ahead of Biden (Harris was slightly better).

Josh Shapiro Id have thought could be a good candidate too.

SJB

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#3261389 19-Jul-2024 11:31

One issue with a Newsom/Harris ticket is they both come from California.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261398 19-Jul-2024 11:48

SJB:

One issue with a Newsom/Harris ticket is they both come from California.

yep, been saying that.

some interesting things from that poll, 60% say someone who can beat Trump is in the top couple of traits, twice as many have said the best delegate is more importat than next in line (so if they were taking that quite large stat, Harris would remain VP),

Black folk were nearly split even with best delegate vs Harris, so I dont really know if it would hurt their chances all that much not to leave Harris at VP.

I like Wes Moore, he has a strong background. He is quite well known too due to his TV work and book etc. But I cant see them picking him, but Gretchen and Moore would have been a good combo. Covers all the demo's.

Edit: just thinking about Mark Kelly, hes Senator for Arizona, immigration is always an election issue and obviously this year it boiled over. So it could be a "strategic" pick. Hes also a veteran and astronaut :-)

On immigration, Ive been wondering if rogue actors have been pushing the border numbers up like has been occurring in east europe and other parts? It just seems coincidental with Trumps ties and all.

quickymart

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#3261426 19-Jul-2024 13:25

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/18/politics/joe-biden-candidacy-in-peril/index.html

I suspect a lot of Biden's advisors are pushing the whole "you can still win" message either because they're busy telling him what he wants to hear, or they just want to save their own skins, while they still can.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261437 19-Jul-2024 13:38

quickymart:

I suspect a lot of Biden's advisors are pushing the whole "you can still win" message either because they're busy telling him what he wants to hear, or they just want to save their own skins, while they still can.

I think he is largely dug in via family. I do think he will listen to people he respects though. The truth is though, he could still win. This shooting did bounce the Trump poll, but nothing like when Reagan was shot, I think within 8 weeks that will wear off as people start getting serious, along with Trumps likely sentencing plus hopefully Jack Smith putting the Georgia case dirty laundry all out in the open digging up memories.

Plus there is the new guy to dig into, who wants to strip womens rights, who is very mediocre at everything, is only in this position due to a billionaire fan boi getting him jobs, new to politics, and wants to end democracy. I think Maddow sums him up and the suprise and anger at him being picked as Trumps Walking mate lol. it is utterly absurd after listening to her.

Rachel Maddow exposes the real reason JD Vance was chosen to be Trump's running mate (youtube.com)

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261440 19-Jul-2024 13:54

Re Mark Kelly, the more I look the more I like. Whilst not as familiar as Newsom he is clearly known by a fair number of the US public. He is very strong on womens rights too, which makes me wonder, do you really need Harris? hehe For the black demographic Wes Moore is prob one of the most well known (via TV etc) and has a great background (all the dems seem to oddly). Kelly/Moore for twenty twenty four, oh that just sounds right :-).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qbm_1p1Iy6g

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

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#3261453 19-Jul-2024 15:00

Ugggh sorry for multiple posts, tried to edit lst one but timed out. If people have enough control over cognitive dissonance, and this gets to all of the US, then there is hope for the dems and US democracy yet.

I just posted this in the DJT Court Cases thread.

I feel deeply worried for our own country with the US becoming completely isolationised under this Repub party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y16SZhZJHkI

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