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Forums › Politics › Donald Trump, US President #47, US President #45, convicted felon, twice impeached, four times indicted, liable of rape, convicted for financial fraud, guilty of hiding hush money payments to porn actress in attempt to influence 2016 elections
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Fred99
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  #1922951 21-Dec-2017 09:24
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geekIT:

 

If she persists in hanging around and further muddying the stream, the GOP will romp home - again. With Trump or without him.

 

 

Here's the Gallup trend on Clinton's favourability/unfavourability:

 

 

Regardless of the reason(s), she's about as popular as Trump is, which isn't very popular at all, Trump fairly well cemented in history as the most unpopular president in history over the first 12 months of their term.  I understand that the number of people polled who would like to see the president impeached now exceeds the number stating that they would intend to vote for him in 2020, and that the Democratic party now hold an 18 point lead over the GOP.

 

But there's another trend too, identified by Gallup prior to the 2016 election.  There's been a trend of declining favourability for both (winning and losing) presidential candidates over the past 50 years.  US society is more divided, along partisan lines.  I suspect that unless there's a calamity forcing bipartisanship, then it's only going to get worse.

Fred99
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  #1922954 21-Dec-2017 09:27
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dclegg:

 

Donald Trump threatens to cut aid on UN vote. Because aid shouldn't be given for humanitarian reasons, but to ensure you kowtow to the donor's every demand.

 

 

China and Russia will step in.

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  #1922959 21-Dec-2017 09:33
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Fred99:

 

Stan:

 

Some people here are almost delusional with the trump hate wagon.

 

In other news Trump Tax plan has been passed.

 

 

The tax plan that increases the US deficit, increases wealth inequality, and doesn't achieve the original primary goal of simplifying the US tax code.

 

Oh dear.

 

 

 

 

Yes, finally he got something over the line, and its this. The Decline and Decline of the USA

Stan
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  #1922962 21-Dec-2017 09:34
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Fred99:

 

Stan:

 

Some people here are almost delusional with the trump hate wagon.

 

In other news Trump Tax plan has been passed.

 

 

The tax plan that increases the US deficit, increases wealth inequality, and doesn't achieve the original primary goal of simplifying the US tax code.

 

Oh dear.

 

 

 

 

I don't think its that clear cut as the lower middle classes get a big cut presumably so trump can get the rust belt states on board for the next elections.

 

On a related note this year the US has had very good economic growth this year.

 

 

 

 

tdgeek
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  #1922965 21-Dec-2017 09:37
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Fred99:

 

dclegg:

 

Donald Trump threatens to cut aid on UN vote. Because aid shouldn't be given for humanitarian reasons, but to ensure you kowtow to the donor's every demand.

 

 

China and Russia will step in.

 

 

I agree. When the US, if it does, starts to clamp down on trade deficits with tariffs, trade will move away from the US as much as it can, bringing with it more anti US sentiment, as this aid issue will. The US is doing a fine job to cement China as the dominant global power. The heady days of the 50's and 60's are a distant  memory now.

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  #1922970 21-Dec-2017 09:42
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Stan:

 

Fred99:

 

Stan:

 

Some people here are almost delusional with the trump hate wagon.

 

In other news Trump Tax plan has been passed.

 

 

The tax plan that increases the US deficit, increases wealth inequality, and doesn't achieve the original primary goal of simplifying the US tax code.

 

Oh dear.

 

 

 

 

I don't think its that clear cut as the lower middle classes get a big cut presumably so trump can get the rust belt states on board for the next elections.

 

On a related note this year the US has had very good economic growth this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I feel the rust belts are past news now. He was surprised to win the election, and with his performances to date, he will be gone. While the US is doing ok at the moment, its not due to Trump, and when you cut taxes like this, you need to limit expenditure, and the US is rampant with run down infrastructure just to name one area of spending. Its a race to the bottom IMHO

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  #1922971 21-Dec-2017 09:45
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Stan:

 

I don't think its that clear cut as the lower middle classes get a big cut presumably so trump can get the rust belt states on board for the next elections.

 

On a related note this year the US has had very good economic growth this year.

 

 

Except that from reading commentary the tax cuts for individuals have a limited time, while for corporations it's forever. At some point everyone will pay more. And have less health insurance, so more costs. So less money for them.




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Fred99
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  #1922972 21-Dec-2017 09:45
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Stan:

 

Fred99:

 

Stan:

 

Some people here are almost delusional with the trump hate wagon.

 

In other news Trump Tax plan has been passed.

 

 

The tax plan that increases the US deficit, increases wealth inequality, and doesn't achieve the original primary goal of simplifying the US tax code.

 

Oh dear.

 

 

 

 

I don't think its that clear cut as the lower middle classes get a big cut presumably so trump can get the rust belt states on board for the next elections.

 

On a related note this year the US has had very good economic growth this year.

 

 

Of course the US has good economic growth this year.  The market loves the prospect of deregulation, winding back of consumer and environmental protection, the monkey on their back of "someone" having to pay back the growing deficit deferred so that it's "someone else" - all to become some future generation's problem and not affect this or next year's bonus or dividend.

 

Note also that the cuts to personal taxes have an expiry date.

Stan
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  #1922974 21-Dec-2017 09:47
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tdgeek:

 

I feel the rust belts are past news now. He was surprised to win the election, and with his performances to date, he will be gone. While the US is doing ok at the moment, its not due to Trump, and when you cut taxes like this, you need to limit expenditure, and the US is rampant with run down infrastructure just to name one area of spending. Its a race to the bottom IMHO

 

 

He was not expected to win this election a lot can change between now and 2020 I am not so sure he will loose its also dependent on the democratic candidate.

 

I wonder when the crash will come if it will the USA public debt can't be sustainable surely.

Fred99
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  #1922979 21-Dec-2017 09:55
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Stan:

 

He was not expected to win this election a lot can change between now and 2020 I am not so sure he will loose its also dependent on the democratic candidate.

 

I wonder when the crash will come if it will the USA public debt can't be sustainable surely.

 

 

US govt debt is actually (despite the horrific headline figure of > $20 trillion) sustainable, as a % of GDP it's not much more than ours (NZ), less by far than Japan or the UK.

 

The crash that's going to come, goodness knows the trigger.  There seem to be numerous possible bubbles.  One is that there's an awful lot of speculative money tied up in business models that have been "disruptive" to competitors, but are active in areas that have a history of being disrupted, and/or those large companies haven't been able to actually make a profit.  When it all seems too good to be true, then maybe...

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  #1922982 21-Dec-2017 10:00
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Stan
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  #1922984 21-Dec-2017 10:04
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Fred99:

 

US govt debt is actually (despite the horrific headline figure of > $20 trillion) sustainable, as a % of GDP it's not much more than ours (NZ), less by far than Japan or the UK.

 

The crash that's going to come, goodness knows the trigger.  There seem to be numerous possible bubbles.  One is that there's an awful lot of speculative money tied up in business models that have been "disruptive" to competitors, but are active in areas that have a history of being disrupted, and/or those large companies haven't been able to actually make a profit.  When it all seems too good to be true, then maybe...

 

 

Interesting this next pop from what I understand is going to be much bigger than the last.

 

As I understand it Japan handles this by writing off their own debt or something similar as there population is not growing.

 

 

tdgeek
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  #1922990 21-Dec-2017 10:16
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Something to look forward to this upcoming year

 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/19/news/economy/china-us-trade-trump-xi/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

 

Something for US citizens to spend their tax cuts on. Tariffs that increase the price they pay for Chinese goods. Or they could buy American made goods, and spend even more.

 

 

Fred99
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  #1922991 21-Dec-2017 10:17
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Stan:

 

Fred99:

 

US govt debt is actually (despite the horrific headline figure of > $20 trillion) sustainable, as a % of GDP it's not much more than ours (NZ), less by far than Japan or the UK.

 

The crash that's going to come, goodness knows the trigger.  There seem to be numerous possible bubbles.  One is that there's an awful lot of speculative money tied up in business models that have been "disruptive" to competitors, but are active in areas that have a history of being disrupted, and/or those large companies haven't been able to actually make a profit.  When it all seems too good to be true, then maybe...

 

 

Interesting this next pop from what I understand is going to be much bigger than the last.

 

As I understand it Japan handles this by writing off their own debt or something similar as there population is not growing.

 

 

 

 

I think the core of the problem with the next "correction" is that central banks won't be able to stimulate growth in private consumption / production through dropping interest rates as rates are only just above all time lows and can't really go down, and most economies are already carrying an uncomfortable level of debt. They could just print money...

 

Last time (GFC) many of the Republicans now in power were extremely critical of the bail-outs, arguing that those companies, banks etc, should be "allowed to fail".  IMO they were wrong and still are.  The big fail was that the reforms that were supposed to happen to prevent GFC V2.0 were never implemented.

Fred99
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  #1923315 21-Dec-2017 18:28
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Extract from an article in the WP: "Trump just told the Truth"

 

 

Trump, in a Cabinet meeting earlier Wednesday, let his fleeting encounter with honesty get the better of him when he read aloud the stage directions that called for Republicans not to advertise that they were killing Obamacare. “Obamacare has been repealed in this bill. We didn’t want to bring it up,” he said. “I told people specifically, ‘Be quiet with the fake-news media because I don’t want them talking too much about it.’ Because I didn’t know how people would —.” Trump didn’t finish that thought, but he said he could admit what had been done “now that it’s approved.”

 

With those admissions now on tape, Trump has officially claimed full ownership of the health-care system for himself and fellow Republicans. Whatever it is now — or isn’t — is Trumpcare. Here are some of its features:

 

●Premiums for the most popular health insurance on the individual market exchanges are estimated to rise 34 percent on average next year, according to the consulting firm Avalere Health, because of previous sabotage done by the Trump administration. Premiums in Iowa would be up 69 percent, Wyoming 65 percent and Utah 64 percent.

 

●Employer-based health insurance costs are forecast to rise in 2018 by the most since 2011, at 4.3 percent, according to the human resources consulting firm Mercer, and overall medical costs will be up 6.5 percent, the first increase in the rate in three years, according to the consulting firm PwC. Assuming those increases are passed along to workers, they would eat up half of the $910 tax cut received next year by households with income between $55,000 and $93,000 and all of the tax cut received by households earning $27,000 to $54,000.

 

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