2024 US Presidential election thread

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Mad Scientist
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#3270708 12-Aug-2024 08:47

TeaLeaf:

anyway for now, new polls in, Kamala is now in an official outright lead surpassing the 2.0 avg from 1.9 to now 2.1.

It also appears the remaining 5% Kennedy votes are hurting Trump. Id assume by that it was the people who would vote anybody other than the 2 old dudes.

even better, i read she's up to 4% points ahead in some swing states

let's hope the polls are right. i was around in 2016.

Ge0rge

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#3270733 12-Aug-2024 10:00

An AR-15 weighs about 3kg. It is not a "massive gun".

TeaLeaf

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#3270850 12-Aug-2024 14:01

Batman:

even better, i read she's up to 4% points ahead in some swing states

let's hope the polls are right. i was around in 2016.

Those are just snapshots not averages, but always a good thermometer. Use 538 as a good guide, just change it to the state you want to see the avg and the chart.

Pennsylvania : President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

If she keeps this tempo, imo she will take two of the sun belts as well as the rust belt states. Right now she would win.

That was a great rally in Nevada, its near perfect now. 15k and 4k outside. She is on fire.

But she does need to start doing more Interviews and talking through her policies to back up what she says in Rallies, that is all Trump is doing to stay in the race, softball interviews. Once she does those her lead will get out of his reach. Im picking she will wait until the DNC before getting her policies on paper. Not like Trump ever has policies. But I think she will want feed back and then start doing interviews etc.

People are a buzz similar to Obama, its not a novelty thing or racial, she is a powerul woman who you can hear genuine love for her country, the people and she does it with as Coach puts it "joy".

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#3270881 12-Aug-2024 17:11

A couple of election stories from today:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/getty-photographer-shoots-down-trump-205008974.html >> Trump knows he's losing and flailing, so he's thrashing about throwing out any old conspiracy theory to see what works

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/11/trumps-crucial-power-has-been-neutralized-00173406

An interesting read, basically Trump is not "fresh" like he was in 2016, he's just become a story of the same tired old grievances over and over. He's not a candidate of "change" anymore:

In 2024, however, Trump’s claim of change is much harder to come by. For one thing, voters are being asked for a restoration; Trump’s already been in the White House before. For another, Trump seems incapable of putting aside his 2020 defeat; he persists in relitigating his false election theft claims, even to the point of assailing the hugely popular Republican governor of Georgia. Whatever else that is, it is not change.

neb

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#3270887 12-Aug-2024 17:23

Batman: they'd want to know how the teen managed to haul a massive gun onto the roof, and if they can find that out, maybe explain that he

It wasn't a massive gun, it was a relatively compact AR15 that his dad owned. It's not like he hauled a Solothurn or Anzio Ironworks rifle [*] up there.

In terms of getting it, he wouldn't need any help, the US is awash with more firearms than any of the world's active war zones. There are probably between ten and a hundred times more firearms in circulation in the US right now than in Ukraine.

Finally, in terms of standing out, Trump attracts the Meal Team Six crowd like flies to s**t so for some who noticed him he could have been just a patriot showing his support for Trump.

[*] That would have been interesting, the shockwave of the round going past would have done nearly as much damage as it actually hitting.

sir1963

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#3270888 12-Aug-2024 17:27

neb:

Batman: they'd want to know how the teen managed to haul a massive gun onto the roof, and if they can find that out, maybe explain that he

It wasn't a massive gun, it was a relatively compact AR15 that his dad owned. It's not like he hauled a Solothurn or Anzio Ironworks rifle [*] up there.

In terms of getting it, he wouldn't need any help, the US is awash with more firearms than any of the world's active war zones. There are probably between ten and a hundred times more firearms in circulation in the US right now than in Ukraine.

Finally, in terms of standing out, Trump attracts the Meal Team Six crowd like flies to s**t so for some who noticed him he could have been just a patriot showing his support for Trump.

[*] That would have been interesting, the shockwave of the round going past would have done nearly as much damage as it actually hitting.

The USA owns something like 60% of all the world's privately owned guns.....coz it makes them safer...apparently.

gzt

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#3270895 12-Aug-2024 18:05

The story has developed I had no idea. This from two weeks ago:

The Hill: The officer, who was clocking out of his shift, notified colleagues about a suspicious man sitting at a picnic table near their lookout point via text, describing Crooks as having “snuck in” parked alongside officers’ cars. Additional texts at about 5:40 p.m. show officers discussing that they should inform Secret Service after Crooks was spotted again, this time using a range finder. Photos included in the messages show Crooks at the event and also note a bike and a backpack spotted near the scene. “Call it in to command and have a uniform check it out,” the text reads.

Following that an officer pulled himself up to look on the roof and was faced with a gun and dropped down again. The gunman then began shooting at Trump.

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gzt

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#3270896 12-Aug-2024 18:11

"Additional texts" - it would surprise me if they're using sms/mms for police and agency communication. But not much I suppose. What could possibly go wrong?

TeaLeaf

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#3270902 12-Aug-2024 18:56

quickymart:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/getty-photographer-shoots-down-trump-205008974.html >> Trump knows he's losing and flailing, so he's thrashing about throwing out any old conspiracy theory to see what works

Yeh his post on Truth Social of this ai doctored photo was hilarious.

Brian Tyler Cohen did a segment today about him losing the plot with the rant about his crowd size insecurities. Brian was at the plane welcoming which had 15k people just to welcome her. Trumps like, fabricated, she was waving to nobody. lol. Ran through an ai detector it showed us 96% likely human, even if he doesn't want to believe all the reputable people who were there. When was (ever) did he get that many people welcoming him home?

Speaking of ai, I am a bit concerned what musk might be up to with this interview of Trump, given he recently broke his own apps policy out of motive to defame her and ridicule using obvious shallow fake, but using real campaign material. I agree with Newsom, should be illegal, if musk thought parody he should have labelled it so. Clearly his personal tax break is the motive. Given Trump is anti EV.

More demented brain from Trump.

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#3270913 12-Aug-2024 20:34

https://archive.ph/VGaOK

He's definitely unsettled, as this story (from a few days ago) illustrates:

The way Republicans see it, it should not be hard for Mr. Trump to pivot from President Biden to this new Democratic ticket. All he has to do is hammer Ms. Harris and Mr. Walz for things they have said and done, to paint them as out-of-step from most Americans, on everything including policing, immigration and transgender policies.
But lately Mr. Trump keeps getting tangled up in distractions of his own making. He has gone on tangents about Ms. Harris’s biracial identity. He has picked fights with fellow Republicans. He has fantasized that Mr. Biden might somehow snatch back the nomination.
Many in Mr. Trump’s party find this all to be counterproductive, to say the least.

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#3270916 12-Aug-2024 21:07

Trump's vide president JD Vance

defended the dangerous “groomer” smear campaign against Democratic politicians for their support of LGBTQ+ people
said he “strongly disagreed” that LGBTQ+ people should be protected from discrimination
railed against the Equality Act, calling its landmark nondiscrimination provisions “an assault”
held up State Department nominees over his objections to their pro-LGBTQ+ policy views
Sent nominees MAGA litmus test questionnaire forcing them to describe their views on diversity, Pride flags, and gender neutral restrooms.

The Daily Beast: JD Vance’s Campaign Won’t Deny That’s Him in Viral Drag Photo

An image of JD Vance allegedly dressed as a woman and wearing a blonde wig was posted to X, formerly known as Twitter, on Sunday. The unconfirmed image quickly picked up steam and began trending under the hashtag #SofaLoren, a reference to the iconic Italian actress Sophia Loren and false claims that the Republican senator had sex with a couch.

A spokesperson for the Republican vice presidential pick did not deny the photo’s authenticity when approached by the Daily Beast, and did not offer any further comment.
...

'>

TeaLeaf

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#3270917 12-Aug-2024 21:14

Skip to about 7:55 but its all good to watch, but I thought he was going to have a stroke trying to describe how insanely dumb DJT really is, will be good to watch their gaffe winners too lol.

TeaLeaf

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#3270973 13-Aug-2024 10:51

Some good small temperature polls in for Harris to follow up the ones couple days before. all 500 RV double taste tests.

Michigan +5, +6

Pennsylvanin +4, +4

Wisonsin +9, +9 (no surprises)

General election avg is now up to +2.7

Im thinking if they can get the big 3 on the rust belt locked down they may go really hard at the sun states.

quickymart

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#3271147 13-Aug-2024 17:00

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-old-man-and-the-tweet-trump-x-twitter-return >> Trump is heading back to Twitter...but will it save his campaign?

...but Trump's campaign also faces some major structural and strategic decisions in the weeks ahead. Under the penny-pinching leadership of co-managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, Trump had reduced the number of rallies he held relative to his past campaigns. Wiles and LaCivita previously described it as a good way to save money. What they didn’t say was the smaller number of rallies also reduced the frequency and blast radius of his off-script remarks, and it helped pace the 78-year-old candidate to ensure he finishes strong through Election Day.

Trump, at the Thursday press conference, said he would increase his pace of travel after the Democratic convention. And his desire to host big rallies now looms as a drain on campaign coffers, one that provides no measurable boost of support for him beyond the adoring fans who show up and were going to vote Trump anyway. In addition, mainstream media doesn’t televise the speeches because they’re too long, too incoherent, and too filled with falsehoods. Whatever press coverage comes from the rallies usually stems from his extemporaneous comments that lead to negative headlines.

Also - some more polling, courtesy of 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

kingdragonfly

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#3271273 14-Aug-2024 07:22

For someone who's a self made man and a technical genius, Elon Musk has certainly gotten a lot of government money and has problems getting 10 year audio podcast technology working.

So far an estimated $4.9 billion in government support as of 2015.

SpaceX alone received $2.8 billion in government contracts last year and has received a total of $15.3 billion from the government since 2003.

Between 2015 and 2017, he reportedly paid less than $70,000 in federal income taxes and nothing in 2018, despite having a net worth of $152 billion.

CNN: Musk tries to help Trump halt the Harris surge

The world’s richest man and its once-and-possibly future most powerful man agreed on almost everything.

Tech titan Elon Musk threw open his X platform on Monday night, offering Donald Trump a pipeline free of fact checks for his falsehoods, conspiracy theories and extremism as he tries to slow the rise of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

The chat represented yet another extraordinary chapter in a presidential campaign that has defied logic with its stunning twists in recent weeks, including an assassination attempt against Trump and President Joe Biden’s ending of his reelection bid.

The former president has been floundering – struggling to cope with the soaring start by the new Democratic nominee. At times, during their expansive chat, Musk seemed to be using the power of his profile and platform to coach Trump on how to mount a better argument against Harris.

“She’s a believer in being radical left,” Trump said at one point of a Democratic foe who has erased his polling advantage in only three weeks as a candidate. And the former president, who attempted to overturn an election he lost, baselessly claimed that Biden had been illegally ousted to make way for Harris. “She hasn’t done an interview since this whole scam started, and say what you want, this was a coup. This was a coup of a president of the United States,” Trump fumed.

Musk agreed with Trump that Harris was a radical leftist and flattered his guest by implying that he was strong and his Democratic opponents were weak. He referred to America’s enemies and said, “Do they fear the American president, or is it someone they do not respect and do not fear? Let’s look at the footage of the assassination. Like, okay, you know, President Trump is like, don’t mess with me.”

Musk has already endorsed Trump, and he was leaving no doubt on Monday night that he wants to see him win a second term. “You are the path to prosperity. And I think Kamala is the opposite,” he told Trump.
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