2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3274525 22-Aug-2024 16:14

freitasm:

This is not the Russian playbook. Joseph Goebbels said that. It's a Nazi reference.

This is true, but it is part of the 4 steps to subversion. I think lilkely post war intelligence they look across the block for a process of control and no doubt some Nazi moves are still in there. The followers in the US do not believe there are agents despite the proof and word for word actions.

anyway, back to the DNC, was nice to see Republicans for Harris turn up, not overly ambitious speeches but lets hope it at least installs Country over Party. I think the "coaster" message will stick.

TeaLeaf

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#3274527 22-Aug-2024 16:29

Pete Buttigieg riffs on Vance and like Wes Moore there "action" in war is about as physical commitment as you get, Vance started this tit for tat with his role 5 years after iraq began as a "commuications" officer, far, far from action.

Pete is such a good talker. But I also liked Oprahs calls to the undecided, so important.

TeaLeaf

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#3274528 22-Aug-2024 16:32

Oprah, targetting those left behind, those undecided, those struggling to make the right decision. So dang important.

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TeaLeaf

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#3274540 22-Aug-2024 17:24

Trump got BRUTALISED by speaker after speaker. From Vets to Republicans, Trump must be feeling this.

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#3274625 22-Aug-2024 23:18

neb:

quickymart: https://newrepublic.com/post/185036/donald-trump-activists-dnc-kamala-harris-awry

MAGA tried to infiltrate the 2024 Democratic Conference. It didn't go particularly well 😀

And this is the problem with politics in the US today: The far right is endlessly bragging over how it trashed the what-passes-for-in-the-US-as-left, and now the what-passes-for-in-the-US-as-left is bragging about how it trashed the far right. Great, I'm sure all your bros will be proud of you and you'll get lots of likes, have a biscuit.

In the meantime a lot of the country is living hand-to-mouth, can't afford medical care, can't afford to send their kids to decent schools, can barely keep a roof over their heads... but at least there's Youtube videos of your team engaging in masturbatory [*] point-scoring against the other team to keep you occupied while you wonder how you're going to pay the next rent instalment.

[*] I couldn't think of a word that fits the situation better, sorry.

It gets more and more extreme as both parties spend their time positioning the other as dangerous extremists. The only way you get nominated for either party is if you appeal to the worst part of each party which takes it further and further down the wormhole.

quickymart

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#3274662 23-Aug-2024 08:41

Polling is getting interesting. I checked this on 538 last night before going to bed and noticed Kamala was on 47%. Here's this morning:

The poll above is updated frequently, more here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

Trump is essentially static, and Kennedy appears to have flatlined too.

I see there's been talk of him pulling out of the race and joining with/endorsing Trump: https://abcnews.go.com/US/rfk-jr-plans-drop-presidential-race-end-week/story?id=113028999

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kingdragonfly

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#3274680 23-Aug-2024 09:37

It gets more and more extreme as both parties spend their time positioning the other as dangerous extremists. The only way you get nominated for either party is if you appeal to the worst part of each party which takes it further and further down the wormhole.

How accurate is this 18 year old film?

Batman

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#3274695 23-Aug-2024 10:38

quickymart:

Polling is getting interesting. I checked this on 538 last night before going to bed and noticed Kamala was on 47%. Here's this morning:

does it come with a margin of error?

TeaLeaf

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#3274732 23-Aug-2024 13:09

Batman:

does it come with a margin of error?

Not really. also doesnt take into account Pollsters who lean Red or Blue eiither, the individual polls that make up the avg have their own margin of error, something extreme needs to change and soon. RFKjr Trump endorsement might blunt it but wont fix the trends. Interesting to note Trump is starting to head downward end of aug, just a slight curve. Kennedy's endorsement might fix that, or he could just buy a bunch of red leaning polls.

Biden and Clinton were going down at this stage, not continuing to go up.

So thats why I said keep an eye on that figure, +3.6avg now. 10pts is a landslide aka "Movement". Biden was up about 8 pts at this stage and the Electoral College was still close, which is why those avgs matter. These thermometer tests are because this is one of the shortest Campaigns ever, so its interesting to see if the rapid momentum keeps growing. Some have called Kamamala a Movement.

Then you have unfavourability, Harris graphs look so nuts that they are soon to intersect, if that happens she will be the first candidate since Obama to be net "Favorable". Currently unfavorable +2.4. Meanwhile Trump is going backwards peaking at +8.1 Unvaforable he is back up to +9.8.

If you put averages to the side, Harris is favorable, just look at the polls below the graph they show the poll results. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/

But something else to keep an eye on his both NEW VOTERS, FIRST TIME DONATORS and NEW VOLUNTEERS.

Something Kamala is owning. She is investing in the youth, Im hoping that includes explaining Gaza which she is far more open too. But the way I see it Trump gets the older folk (promised a big tax cut) misogyny, hate and do what your told votes.

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#3274829 23-Aug-2024 16:15

Harris accepts Democratic presidential nomination:

"So, on behalf of the people, on behalf of every American, regardless of party, race, gender or the language your grandmother speaks, on behalf of my mother and everyone who has ever set out on their own unlikely journey on behalf of Americans, like the people I grew up with, people who work hard, chase their dreams and look out for one another, on behalf of everyone whose story could only be written in the greatest nation on Earth, I accept your nomination for president of the United States of America."

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#3274833 23-Aug-2024 16:20

Batman:
quickymart:

Polling is getting interesting. I checked this on 538 last night before going to bed and noticed Kamala was on 47%. Here's this morning:

does it come with a margin of error?

It’s a poll of polls. Margin of error isn’t particularly relevant.

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quickymart

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#3274862 23-Aug-2024 19:15

Couple of election-related things today, during and post the DNC:

https://newrepublic.com/post/185153/donald-trump-tim-walz-project-2025-kamala-harris-dnc

Trump loses it over Harris and Project 2025:

When asked to respond to Walz, Trump took off on a winding rant that touched on a little bit of everything. Although it is broken up below into more digestible chunks, it should be understood as a wall of uninterrupted text. (you need to read this to believe it)

https://newrepublic.com/post/185214/trump-reaction-meltdown-kamala-harris-dnc-speech

“Too many ‘Thank yous,’ too rapidly said, what’s going on with her?” Trump began. It didn’t get any better from there. (I guess hating on people must be better than thanking them for anything?)

“She’s talking about how great San Francisco was before she destroyed it, probably not a good idea!” Trump posted, accompanied by a video disparaging Harris’s record as a prosecutor in the city. And ever self-conscious, he posted “IS SHE TALKING ABOUT ME?” when Harris started criticizing him.

Occasionally, some of his posts veered into all-caps, probably when he was particularly upset, like when the Project 2025 manifesto was mentioned: “LYING AGAIN ABOUT PROJECT 2025, WHICH SHE KNOWS, AND SO DO ALL DEMOCRATS, THAT I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH!” (She wasn’t lying.)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/us-election-exclusive-poll-shows-new-zealanders-back-kamala-harris-over-donald-trump-for-next-president/3ZDNOOS2PVEOVL3DEW3LVARQXY/

Kiwis are asked who they would prefer to see as the next president of the US. Unsurprisingly, most NZ First backers love Trump 🙄

I thought this was quite well done too:

quickymart

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#3274893 24-Aug-2024 07:12

A few election-related cartoons for your Saturday morning:

(this one below is quite fitting, given how angry Trump has been the last few weeks):

(with this one I recognise most of the people here, but who is the tall bloke standing at the back in the bow tie?):

quickymart

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#3274894 24-Aug-2024 07:14

Plus there's been a little movement in the polls this morning:

It appears (to me, anyway) that Harris might be gaining at the expense of both Trump and Kennedy, not just Trump.

kingdragonfly

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#3274899 24-Aug-2024 08:30

Mike Lindell Humiliated by 12-Year-Old at DNC; Trump Whines About Obama "Size" Jab

Late Night with Seth Meyers: A Closer Look

Seth takes a closer look at Kamala Harris accepting the Democratic nomination to cap off a raucous convention that clearly got under Trump's skin.

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