Ukraine War discussion

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#2899997 11-Apr-2022 19:39

tdgeek:

Im waiting for The Day After 2, when Russia is taken over... I thought that's what governments do...

Well, the US has got the first part down pat, but they haven't got their heads around this whole "government that works for the people" thing at home yet, so it's a bit much to expect them to do it somewhere else.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

neb

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#2900094 12-Apr-2022 01:12

Vladimir Putin ‘running out’ of missiles – because parts are made in Ukraine

ladimir Putin risks running out of viable tanks, missiles and fighter jets because the components they use are made in Ukraine, The Telegraph understands.

The engines for all Russian helicopters, ships and cruise missiles and a substantial portion of fighter jet engines and ground-to-air missile and tank components are made in Ukrainian factories, which no longer supply Mr Putin’s forces.

[...]

The arms restocking crisis will affect the production of T-72 battle tanks, one of the main armoured vehicles of the Russian army. Systems that launch their projectiles are manufactured in Izyum, an eastern Ukrainian city that Russian forces have failed to capture.

freitasm

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#2900120 12-Apr-2022 08:18

Press release:

The Government will deploy a C-130H Hercules and 50-strong team to Europe to further support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced the deployment today, with $13 million in further support including a contribution via the United Kindgom to procure weapons and ammunition.

“Our support is to assist the Ukraine Army to repel a brutal Russian invasion because peace in the region of Europe is essential for global stability,” Jacinda Ardern said.

“Such a blatant attack on a country’s sovereignty is a threat to all of us and that’s why we too have a role to play.

“The global response has seen an unprecedented amount of military support pledged for Ukraine, and more help to transport and distribute it is urgently needed, and so we will do our bit to help.

“The measures decided by Cabinet today include:

- The deployment of an NZDF C-130H Hercules transport aircraft and 50 support personnel to Europe – for two months
- A further NZDF 8-person team logistic specialists to support the international donor coordination centre in Germany with the flow of aid and supplies to Ukraine
- An extra $13.1 million, towards military and legal and human rights support, including:
- $7.5m to contribute to weapons and ammunition procurement by the United Kingdom
- $4.1m to support commercial satellite access for the Ukrainian Defence Intelligence
- $1m to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights
- $500,000 for the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court

“Our support to date has been comprehensive and covers every aspect of this conflict – humanitarian, legal, military, transportation, and people – and is in addition to the economic and trade sanctions we have put in place to help cripple the Russian economy.

Over the next two months, our C-130 will join a chain of military aircraft from partner nations, travelling throughout Europe, via the United Kingdom, carrying much-needed equipment and supplies to key distribution centres, but at no point will they enter Ukraine, nor have they been asked to.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a violation of international law, which is why we are supporting the International Criminal Court in their investigations to hold Russia to account.

“We will continue to answer to the calls of Ukraine, with regular reviews of how we can keep making the greatest difference,” Jacinda Ardern said.

The Minister of Defence, Peeni Henare, said he was pleased New Zealand could offer the additional measures to both support our partners and Ukraine.

“These measures today follow decisions in recent weeks by the Government to help support Ukraine, including the supply of a range of defence equipment requested by Ukraine, and the deployment of nine defence intelligence and liaison personnel.

“Over the next few months, our team will travel throughout Europe transporting much-needed equipment and supplies to key distribution centres, but at no point will they enter Ukraine. The Hercules is set to go on Wednesday.

“This deployment is in response to a direct ask by the UK, which identified that New Zealand could play a tangible role in supporting what has become an enormous logistical task,” Peeni Henare said.

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nanaia Mahuta, said Cabinet’s decisions were a further demonstration of New Zealand’s commitment to broader international efforts to support Ukraine.

“This package is a substantial further extension of what is already New Zealand’s most significant response to an international crisis in recent history. Supporting Ukraine’s self-defence is at a critical inflection point as we continue to respond to Ukraine’s broad range of needs and those of its people; be they military, economic, humanitarian or supporting legal international frameworks.

“We also continue work at pace to continue rolling out sanctions and target those associated with Russia’s egregious actions,” Nanaia Mahuta said.

Today’s announcement brings New Zealand’s total contribution to the Ukraine to $30 million and 67 people deployed.

kingdragonfly

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#2900173 12-Apr-2022 08:49

neb: Vladimir Putin ‘running out’ of missiles – because parts are made in Ukraine

I saw a video discussing the Russian drones. Quite a few have been crashed. some almost completely intact. They range from centimeters long to meters long.

None have Russian made parts, or even Eastern European parts. Most parts were hobbyists parts, much of it from the US. Except for the airframe, all parts are what you could buy off Trade-Me, Amazon or eBay.

It did have some cheap off-the-shelf Chinese parts such as GPS units. That's telling because GPS is run by the US, and Russia has its own positioning system called GLONASS . It also means they can't jam GPS while their drones operate.

The problems with the Russian military's radios was also mentioned, and why the Russia have been using cheap consumer grade Chinese made walkie-talkies.

It'll be no consolation to the dead, but the Russian economy will be in the same state as the 1930's depression no matter what happens next.

Among their stupid moves is privatizing leased passenger jets, for many, many reasons.

kingdragonfly

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#2900667 12-Apr-2022 21:18

Washington Post: A Russian Default Is a Question of When, Not If

Unless Vladimir Putin rapidly comes to his senses and pulls out of Ukraine, Russia is on the verge of being cast out of the international capital markets for a very long time. Any bondholders still invested in the nation’s debt are on their own.

The Russian government has tried to maintain payments to its creditors, but the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is inexorably and expertly tightening the noose to halt those money flows. All the avenues and back-channels for Russian government-related entities to keep servicing their debts are being shut down. The credit-rating agencies and benchmark bond-index providers are dropping Russia bonds from their businesses. A formal default by the government is likely to be triggered in the next few weeks.

Russia has in effect acknowledged its pariah status by threatening legal action, and saying it will halt bond sales for the rest of the year. Quite who or what it could successfully sue is unclear, and the prospect of new Russian debt had already evaporated when it invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. As Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov commented in Russian newspaper Izvestia, the borrowing costs on any bond sale would be “cosmic.” It’ll be many years before we see the country tap the market for dollars, euros or other international currencies, but Russia is also stopping issuance domestically in rubles.

That’s not so much of a problem while Europe is still paying $1 billion a day for Russian energy. If sanctions on coal are followed by bans on oil and gas, however, those cashflows would end and its inability to borrow would start to hurt.
...

kingdragonfly

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#2900671 12-Apr-2022 21:27

From Stephen Colbert's "The late show"

"Papa John's is suspending corporate operations in Russia, but the majority of franchises in the country will keep cranking out pizza because they're primarily owned by Russians. They've even updated their slogan"

neb

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#2900673 12-Apr-2022 21:34

kingdragonfly: Washington Post: A Russian Default Is a Question of When, Not If

I've seen other analyses saying that they effectively defaulted on 4 April when they tried to pay debts in rubles that were denominated in dollars, technically a selective default, they have a month's grace but can't access their dollar accounts to pay it off in that time. However the practical effect will be minimal, since they're fighting a genocidal war no-one will touch them no matter what their credit rating is.

Edited to add: Apparently it's not that serious, TASS has reported it as a change in credit rating from CC to SD (just letters, nothing else), and "Russia fulfilled its obligations on sovereign Eurobonds in rubles".

Sidestep

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#2900700 13-Apr-2022 05:40

tdgeek:

..when Russia is taken over, a government is installed that works for the people...

Be careful what you wish for. That would bring us much, much closer to WW3 than we are now.

There's no way China would accept Putin being replaced with a potentially more US-friendly government.
Russia and China share a Northern border, their rail link to Europe crosses Russia and energy's imported from Siberia via pipelines.

China's already under pressure across it's East from US military presence in The Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.
To their West, there's Mongolia and Kazakhstan both softening their anti-US rhetoric and opening up to Western mining and energy companies.
In the South there's India (nuclear-armed and who they've fought wars with) suddenly - after Russia's Ukraine debacle - looking to the US for military supplies & equipment.

Pakistan's just deposed Khan - their most China friendly PM in years, who was about to give the Chinese an Arabian Sea Navy base.
They've replaced him with a PM who - in spite of Chinese statements - they're wary of, and the Pakistan military's always had close ties to the US.

All this, and suddenly there's potential for a 'Color Revolution' in Sri Lanka, who've stopped paying their huge Chinese loans..
In fact, as food and energy become more unaffordable there's potential for pro-democracy revolutions all across the Mid-East and Africa.

There's a reason China staged a showy airlift of six Xi’an Y-20 heavy transports delivering anti-US missile systems and drones into Serbia last week.
They're saying 'if you push us too far, we'll retaliate'. Just wait for the fuss as they begin to set up more military bases in Cambodia, Laos, across Africa, the UAE and in the Solomon Islands etc.
They're wooing Hungary and Austria and quietly supporting Czech and French right wingers - if push comes to shove they'll openly support Putin. If he was to fall to a pro-US coup they'd take control of Eastern Russia.

Our (natural) sympathy for the Ukrainians exaggerates Putin's setbacks, leads us to misunderstand his overall strategy and goals, discount his support and approval in Russia.
The best outcome is a settlement requiring a Russian withdrawal to pre Feb 23 lines - and that doesn't recognise Russian sovereignty over the 3 occupied territories.
Russia - and Putin - will survive, but there'll be a new - smaller - 'iron curtain' that they'll suffer behind until Putin dies in 10-15 years.

Putin and his closest elites will welcome the isolation, and lots of Chinese money. They'll be China's bi*ch but in the new 'world order' it's still a win for them.
They're impressed with the Chinese model: a dynamic economy, a disciplined society, a military superpower ruled over with iron fist by a hereditary elite, combining huge wealth and patriotism.
Putin's already promoting the idea of China as a superior civilisation, with none of the decadence and wokeness of the West.

There are no winners in war, no good guys or bad guys - just death and suffering for both Ukrainians and Russians. I hope it ends soon.

tdgeek

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#2900706 13-Apr-2022 06:47

It depends how long the Russian people will be happy being cut off and in a poor economy.

kingdragonfly

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#2901765 13-Apr-2022 09:44

First a caveat: I've never been in the military, and only know what I've recently read or seen on Youtube.

Obviously if a full-blown nuclear exchange happens, only survival matters. Drones/tanks would just add to the misery.

That aside, it feels like we've hit two historical turning point.

First, this war is firmly establishing the importance of autonomous killing machines. We've had guided missiles for a long time, but they were expensive, heavy, and required an expensive platform to use.

Understandably soldiers love the ability to shoot something from out of a building's window, without killing your friends standing behind you, then run away/hide as the suicidal killing machine does the dirty work. A swarm of these fired at anything would be terrifying to the humans inside the target.

Second is the decline of the tanks, since something cheap can kill something expensive. There's talk that heavily armored tanks may be replaced by cheaper, lightly armored, faster personnel transporters.

This is good news since Russia plans since WWII was overwhelm the enemy with a swarm of tanks.

NATO countries are talking about creating cheaper, autonomously driven tanks. The designers would decide where a human get involved in killing the enemy. It's not a technical issue, as it could be adjusted to kill anything human that comes into range.

Russia won't be able to do for many years because of lack of chips, and lack of technical expertise.

We are definitely cursed with living in interesting times.

kingdragonfly

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#2901786 13-Apr-2022 10:20

Why Every Military Needs the NLAW Anti Tank Missile

Task & Purpose

Ge0rge

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#2901787 13-Apr-2022 10:22

@kingdragonfly

There's a lot to unpick in your post, and unfortunately I'm on my phone.

In regards to tanks vs helicopters - while tanks do take a fair amount of maintenance, it's nothing in comparison to anything that flies. You also need to consider the human aspect. I'd wager that the majority of people on this forum could be trained to drive / load / gun a tank in reasonably short order (command is slightly different and takes a reasonable amount of experience in other roles before stepping up), however I'd suggest that very few could be taught to fly well (myself included!).

Without going into tactics too deeply, tanks are not ideal by themselves, but are a massive force multiplier when used as part of a combined arms process - consider an aircraft carrier: it brings a reasonable amount of fire-power to the party, but one by itself would be easy pickings. Combine it with a carrier battle group, and suddenly you've got something that is incredibly prickly, has a very hard shell and can reach a long way.

While we're only really seeing a large amount of unverified footage from engagements, it would appear that Russia is making some fundamental mistakes at times - thus rendering superior equipment and fire-power useless. No commander in their right mind would take their wagon, unescorted, through a hostile urban area - you're asking to be killed. And yet, we've seen footage of just that.

There's an awful lot unexplained about Russia's TTPs as they move into Ukraine, but I would suggest a significant part originates from motivation and trained state of the soldiers.

ezbee

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#2901797 13-Apr-2022 10:34

Xie was no doubt told operation would be over by tea time, like Georgia but faster.
Bolstering food security for China being most of worlds cooking oil, and more wheat.
World is especially weak due to fractures of alliances, SARS-Cov2.
More would be autocrats that China and Russia are uniquely positioned to make friends and clients.
Timing could not be better.

Then....... 47 days later and counting.

On top of this SARS-Cov2 is not just a western problem, now causing major compounding issues for CCP.
The party that could at least offer prosperity in trade for lack of freedom.
Inflexibility and top down nature of CCP unable to bend like bamboo in the cyclone of Covid.

China's economy is a bit of a pyramid scheme that lacking new money pouring in, reality bites.
Poverty did not go away just cos you stopped looking, and your travel shills never visit those areas.

I daresay starting a war is not high on list.
However there is Yongmingchen ( Vladivostok ) really a Chinese territory stolen when China was weak.
The temptation ...

Its a long shot, but then comrade Vietnam was hit by China, and there were differences over Pol Pot.
So one day besties and next day, I like that territory we had 100's years ago.

elpenguino

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#2901799 13-Apr-2022 10:35

kingdragonfly:

Second is the decline of the tanks, since something cheap can kill something expensive.

Good comments from George but I'd add that you can look at history to see how Russia/Soviet Union uses tanks against 'rogue' governments and civilian populations.

'Age of tanks', episode 3, on netflix shows Russian tanks being used against Hungary (56) Prague (68) and Afghanistan (79) so you could say as far as Russia is concerned, whenever you need to liberate a country from themselves, first military move is to send in the tanks.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

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#2901838 13-Apr-2022 11:50

elpenguino:

'Age of tanks', episode 3, on netflix shows Russian tanks being used against Hungary (56) Prague (68) and Afghanistan (79) so you could say as far as Russia is concerned, whenever you need to liberate a country from themselves, first military move is to send in the tanks.

If you take the long view, Russia hasn't done too well with this tactic. Hungary maybe a little bit, the others definitely not.

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