2024 US Presidential election thread

To post in this sub-forum you must have made 100 posts or have Trust status or have completed our ID Verification

Forums › Politics › 2024 US Presidential election thread

1 | ... | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | ... | 125

13932 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#3274902 24-Aug-2024 09:08

And in news just to hand: https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45

Robert F Kennedy is going to pull out of the race and endorse the orange buffoon.

I guess he finally realised he didn't have a hope in hell of winning. Will be interesting to see what happens with polling now.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3274905 24-Aug-2024 09:52

quickymart:

I guess he finally realised he didn't have a hope in hell of winning. Will be interesting to see what happens with polling now.

The answer is, it depends on the state, read my second link. The upside is she has time regardless, to get outside margin of era. But the main thing now is the grass roots programmes kicking in, dragging people to vote etc.

I find this first link to be Sketchy. Im not sure if its just a case of being too late to pull him from states that had him in the ballot but I dont see how other than early voters. It is just a newsweek article mind.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May Still Be on the Ballot in 23 States - Newsweek

How RFK Jr Dropping Out Would Affect Trump vs Harris in Battleground States - Newsweek

Harris is ahead by 3.7 now in the GE avg Polling and her unfavorability is very close to net positive now at +1.9 (couple of new polls).

It will lag for sure, but it was hurting Trump, so if all his voters were to go Trump, clearly it would hurt Harris. But I highly doubt all 4-5% of his votes will go to Trump. Especially given he only got approval on 23 ballots/states.

Perhaps the extremist conspiracist types. Definitely the right move to do it early, as come voting day many would realise the protest vote is pointless and there is a genuine candidate.Its quite hard to say as his policies didnt all line up with Trump either.

But Harris has the momentum, the endorsements, the policies, the non Dictatorship, a LOT of money, more volunteers, I would have to think a more organised grass roots (door to door etc) campaign in more numbers etc.

The youth I doubt will flip given the much harder deal they get under Trump.

If anything if her favorability ratings keep increasing she should win (Id like to say by landslide but her campaign has only just started so many americans who do not follow the news will only just be hearing about her in the final 60 days).

But Trump has subversion plans, no doubt if he loses he will put those into play. Flip side is Im sure Biden's govt are preparing for any scenario.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3274908 24-Aug-2024 10:25

Race to WH (as mentioned in the newsweek links above) still has Harris winning 288 to 250 in "all polls" and Harris vs Trump + 3rd party 282 to 256, but straight head to head has Harris winning 303 to 218.

2024 Presidential Election Polls - Includes Electoral College — Race to the WH

So what that says to me, right now, she wins in any scenario, but she has only begun, if she can erase any damage RFKjr does by joining Trump, which is slight but slight can win lots of electoral college numbers, then that final scenario is well within her campaigns grasp if no October surprises land against her and even better do against him ie him using the N word on tape. Keeping in mind his sentencing hasnt occured yet either.

What Trump is hoping is he can dislodge the Harris campaign from being so competent, whilst Democrats can be flighty in say the situation with Biden, they are not going to now as they know that is all Trump is trying to do, dislodge their confidence. They know this was possible/likely.

Shame on RFKjr using the Kennedy name in Republand. His siblings/family issued words to that effect with his Father and Uncle being two of the most liked politicians of the 20th century, both assassinated.

But I just find it very hard to go against the wind she has created, its too authentic and well thought out.

Edit: This is to the point, from NBC a couple days ago. Republicans like RFKjr more than Indy' or Democrats, by a sizeable margin 11%, but many of them will be voting for Trump already, so the second point to all of this is, any bump Trump gets is likely to be small and certainly not too much for Harris to pick up. I think any messaging needs to be simple and to the point, like when she looked in the camera during her speech and said it doesn't matter what your politicial persuasion, I wont stop fighting for you and all americans every day etc, then possibly followed up by Trump is tryng to piggy back the "Kennedy" name and that the "Kennedy's" have all strongly rejected their singling using their name to endorse Trump as the Kennedy name is a proud democratic one, yady yada.

I think with that and the likelihood of the Fed dropping interest rates making home loans more affordable under Harris etc and a possible ankle Bracelet for Trump, will likely negate anything from RFKjr.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jrs-exit-help-trump-according-polls-rcna167539

linw

2849 posts

Uber Geek

#3274973 24-Aug-2024 16:39

I find it hard to write this. How low can Trump btards go by saying ghastly things about Gus Walls because he stood up crying about his dad's speech at the DNZ.

Someone should uncover them and spread their name. Perhaps display it, and the foul statement, at every voting site.

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
79263 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#3274976 24-Aug-2024 17:02

Because Republicans are about hate.

quickymart

13932 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#3274977 24-Aug-2024 17:04

freitasm:

Because Republicans are about hate.

Depressing to see what they've become under Trump - they never used to be like this (or this bad, at least).

While Bush (for example) wasn't exactly liked by everybody, (and yes I acknowledge that he started two pointless and unnecessary wars) I struggle to recall a time where he - or even his people - referred to John Kerry or Al Gore's kids in the nasty ways that Republicans have about Walz's boy.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3274996 24-Aug-2024 17:42

quickymart:

Depressing to see what they've become under Trump - they never used to be like this (or this bad, at least).

Bush the second was bad but not in this kind of way, but it did invoke article 5 and thousands of non US nato soldiers died for him getting it so badly wrong, or suckers and losers as Trump would say, considering he was NYC when the twin towers occurred I find it even more low life of him to say such things. especially from a draft dodger.

Right now millions of Republicans are voting Democrat at a chance of flushing the GOP, which is still roughly 70% traditional Reagan like ethics. But they do need to purge and there are plans for young intelligent Republicans to repopulate the house, I would think likely via mid terms. Some of them spoke at the DNC, some current GOPs spoke at the DNC.

The US needs a strong Republican party, as they are just the other side of the coin to Democrats. To function well it needs a strong centre, like most govts. The far right is not even maga, thats just Trump, a failed Democrat, found a softer air with crazies in the Far right. Maga needs to completely be gone as does the heritage foundation and Corrupt (R) appointed SCOTUS justices. If Thomas is ejected, thats one filled and other I believe is a Democrat? But I think Elito needs a thorough investigation too. I think Biden's SCOTUS plan is a good one and I hope to see it voted in.

What Harris has done well for a suppose Liberal, she is appealing to a very broad centralist base, on both axis. People want there country back and no doubt the world wants stability in trading etc back, not things like Trumps tariffs. I understand wating to buy Made in the US, but the fact is the Chinese by hook or by crook have products that will never return to the US. They also have very real economic problems ie agng economy. The West only needs to return some products and diversify to other foreign markets and that will be very hard for Ch. But at the same time, its no good for anyone for their economy to completely collapse. So I dunno, Trump just has ideas, thinks up a figure in his own head without consulting an Economist and runs with it. Which is at least what seems to be occurring.

Tradepub

Free professional, reference and technical white papers (affiliate link).

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3274997 24-Aug-2024 17:52

Right now things look good for the Dems to swing he WH, the House and the Senate. The Senate right now looks like two seat advantage but there is a lot of Flips and Leans in there, if the Dems keep the momentum going it could be outright in both the House and Senate.

But still, 74 odd days to go. But that would go a long way to fixing a lot of problems in the US and for Republicans too.

It would take the shackles off certain Geopolitics. although one of which is going a long way to resolving it. But putting the lean on Chi and Ind to do more than profiteering from conflict zones, I hope Sullivan is replaced, I think Harris will be a very fair Super Power leader.

Without getting too far ahead.

FineWine

2981 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Nurse (R)

Lifetime subscriber

#3275019 24-Aug-2024 20:55

TeaLeaf:

Right now things look good for the Dems to swing he WH, the House and the Senate. The Senate right now looks like two seat advantage but there is a lot of Flips and Leans in there, if the Dems keep the momentum going it could be outright in both the House and Senate.

But still, 74 odd days to go. But that would go a long way to fixing a lot of problems in the US and for Republicans too.

It would take the shackles off certain Geopolitics. although one of which is going a long way to resolving it. But putting the lean on Chi and Ind to do more than profiteering from conflict zones, I hope Sullivan is replaced, I think Harris will be a very fair Super Power leader.

Without getting too far ahead.

Harris winning the WH and the House and the Senate, I hope, would reset American politics but also America in general. With the huge hope that this reset spreads throughout the world.

But I feel 4 years may not be enough, she will need that all important second term especially in reshaping the Supreme Court.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3275021 24-Aug-2024 21:14

FineWine:

But a feel 4 years may not be enough, she will need that all important second term especially in reshaping the Supreme Court.

Yep, Id imagine Nikki Haley would be trying to clean out the republicans along with the career Congress lot. On the Dems, they are overloaded with good candidates, but I think if Harris can deliver on what appears to be genuine, I mean the big tickets like day on Border Bill signed etc, she will hold for that second term. But I do wonder if Shapiro will end up running mate as he was ear marked as the boy wonder who would carry the torch. Heck if he got in then he could take Wes Moore, Whitmer, or some of the younger squad, my fav Texas Jasmine Crockett (she is FIRE), or possibly even Hakim Jeffries who imo delivered the 3rd best speech in the DNC. Heck it could easily be a 24yr stretch if they do a good Centrist job. But hopefully the GOP can rebuild fast, purging names like MTG, Vace, Mike Johnson etc.

Speaking of Vance a little tiktok viral for the "never Trumper", Karma is a b...h lol. Harris stance on TikToki differs to Bidens and I think its a logical choice.

JD Vance declaring himself a ‘never Trump guy’ becomes viral TikTok hit | The Independent

What is looking likely with the RFKjr endorsement and the Lincoln project mentioned here which is rebuilding the GOP from the outside somewhat.

quickymart

13932 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#3275026 24-Aug-2024 21:51

I think if Trump loses this year, he won't run ever again. He can't sit there and bang on about Biden being "too old" this time around when he would be 82 himself in 2028.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3275030 24-Aug-2024 21:59

quickymart:

I think if Trump loses this year, he won't run ever again. He can't sit there and bang on about Biden being "too old" this time around when he would be 82 himself in 2028.

Lol can you imagine how bad his brain will be by then? and that is the scary thing, if he was still in office or did refuse to hand over power, or worse he passes and they stuck with Vance.

They are trying to sell RFKjr coming onboard as a show of unity, democrats and republicans together. Two things, Trump started as a Democrat and secondly whilst the Kennedy name is well known as famous democras, RFKjr was never a serious Democrat and his family despises him using the name in this way.

all Trump is trying to do is match the real Unity that Harris brings with serious Republicans showing up to her conference, its not even close and thats the msg she needs to push out about this hoax, its a last attempt by Trump to dent her growing popularity.

quickymart

13932 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#3275076 25-Aug-2024 09:41

TeaLeaf:

They are trying to sell RFKjr coming onboard as a show of unity, democrats and republicans together.

The orange buffoon has never been about unity, it's either been all about himself or "us" (ie, the MAGA crowd") versus "them" (everyone else).

He might try and say or show he's about "uniting everyone", but that's very far from the truth. A concept Trump is quite familiar with.

quickymart

13932 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#3275136 25-Aug-2024 10:12

Trump appears to be trying to reset his campaign following Biden stepping down - part of which involves being nice to Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia, who he gave hell for for not believing his "stolen election" bs:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-tries-to-reset-his-campaign-after-brutal-month/ar-AA1pm3tC?cvid=05e5ca0a7fea46fdc92c524de4370d1e&ei=10

Privately, Trump has suggested he understands that he could lose in November if he does not dramatically change his approach to the race, according to a person with knowledge of his thinking who was granted anonymity to discuss the situation.

And the "age" thing has cropped up in the past too, but now it's Trump on the back foot: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/24/mathur-age-attacks-listicle-00174375

gzt

17111 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#3275140 25-Aug-2024 10:25

quickymart: I think if Trump loses this year, he won't run ever again. He can't sit there and bang on about Biden being "too old" this time around when he would be 82 himselfin 2028.

It's a big mistake to expect any Trump self-consistency. Trump will hold his grip on the Republican party as long as he is standing and with any means. The Trump Organization benefits from all kinds of payment for services at hotels and other properties which are basically illegal kickbacks and payments but impossible to prove. If it is not Trump himself in 2028 - there is a better than 50/50 chance there will be a Trump on the ticket for pres or vice or both.

1 | ... | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | ... | 125