NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3145816 12-Oct-2023 16:12

If the polls are right it will be a National/Act/NZF coalition. The chances of that lasting two years are very slim. I can't see it lasting, if in fact it gets together, one year at most.

If by some miracle it's a Labour/Green/ Te Pati Maori/NZF coalition, six months lifespan at the outside.

tdgeek

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#3145916 12-Oct-2023 16:39

MikeB4: If the polls are right it will be a National/Act/NZF coalition. The chances of that lasting two years are very slim. I can't see it lasting, if in fact it gets together, one year at most.

If by some miracle it's a Labour/Green/ Te Pati Maori/NZF coalition, six months lifespan at the outside.

I see it quite differently. Luxon, Seymour and Peters vs Hipkins, Davidson, Shaw, Ngarewa-Packer and Waititi

If I imagined a coalition negotiation and matters moving forward, I see one of those options as far more volatile than the other. By a margin. I'm using namecalling, insults and childish behavior as my reasoning

Handle9

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#3145917 12-Oct-2023 16:58

MikeB4: If the polls are right it will be a National/Act/NZF coalition. The chances of that lasting two years are very slim. I can't see it lasting, if in fact it gets together, one year at most.

If by some miracle it's a Labour/Green/ Te Pati Maori/NZF coalition, six months lifespan at the outside.

The same things get said every election yet we haven’t really had stability problems with governments during the MMP era. It seems to work itself out, likely because the coalition partners know if they collapse the government they’ll get punished by the electorate.

It’s in their best interests to make it work so they do.

evilengineer

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#3145920 12-Oct-2023 17:00

tdgeek:

MikeB4: If the polls are right it will be a National/Act/NZF coalition. The chances of that lasting two years are very slim. I can't see it lasting, if in fact it gets together, one year at most.

If by some miracle it's a Labour/Green/ Te Pati Maori/NZF coalition, six months lifespan at the outside.

I see it quite differently. Luxon, Seymour and Peters vs Hipkins, Davidson, Shaw, Ngarewa-Packer and Waititi

If I imagined a coalition negotiation and matters moving forward, I see one of those options as far more volatile than the other. By a margin. I'm using namecalling, insults and childish behavior as my reasoning

I don't know, these things tend to last longer than expected.

Lots of people said the Labour/NZF coalition wouldn't last and it went the distance.

Certainly as far as the left wing "Coalition of Chaos" is concerned I think Te Pati Maori have every incentive to at least try and make it work in order to keep the race baiters and Seymour's treaty referendum at bay plus ensure that both the Maori Health Authority and 3 Waters have been going long enough to make them difficult to cancel. The Greens have nowhere else to go.

And the right wing "Coalition of Chaos" knows they'll get massacred at the polls if they let it fall apart.

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#3145922 12-Oct-2023 17:03

Today I voted. It was a tough choice. I did not feel that any party deserved my token of approval. I seriously considered not voting at all, which is also a vote. What finally decided me was Chris Luxon, who said something that really outraged me. So for the first time ever I voted for Labour, just to piss him off.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

ezbee

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#3146923 12-Oct-2023 18:15

Does this indicate a low turnout this time or just a return to normal vote on the day?

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#3146933 12-Oct-2023 19:48

ezbee:

Does this indicate a low turnout this time or just a return to normal vote on the day?

More a return to normal. 2020 was an outlier because of the unusual circumstances. Well ... we hope they will be unusual.

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tdgeek

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#3146937 12-Oct-2023 20:24

ezbee:

Does this indicate a low turnout this time or just a return to normal vote on the day?

A few ways to interpret this (IMO)

If you are trending up, its a good thing. Currently Greens, NZF, and to a minor degree, Labour

If voters are over it, that favours National/ACT who will vote, hell or high water

I said a while back here, its fascinating. The circumstances are an outlier. (Covid, Ukraine, Gisborne, global inflation, et al)

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#3147019 13-Oct-2023 02:50

One thing I'd be curious about - this is the first general election since the Ardern government did something no government has achieved since 2001 - getting the Australian Government to actually act in the spirit of the Trans-Tasman CER agreement and recognise the contribution New Zealanders provide to Australia (I've always joked that Australian trucks always have a "without trucks, Australia stops" but there should also be "without New Zealanders, Australia doesn't build higher than one storey" since the running joke is that every New Zealander is a truckie or a scaffolder). It would be interesting to see if overseas votes (which are special votes, not early votes - it said so on my form) move the balance in any meaningful way.

Remember, the largest NZ electorate is probably Queensland.

mattwnz

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#3147021 13-Oct-2023 03:00

Rikkitic:

Today I voted. It was a tough choice. I did not feel that any party deserved my token of approval. I seriously considered not voting at all, which is also a vote. What finally decided me was Chris Luxon, who said something that really outraged me. So for the first time ever I voted for Labour, just to piss him off.

What did he say? What gets me is that he doesn't answer questions, and just tries to spin things around and around, and many National voters don't seem to like him. He is a poor mans version of John Key imo, and seem to totally lack personality, which you need as a PM, and is detached from your average working person, so he can't relate. At least he hasn't mentioned that he was a CEO for a while.

Bluntj

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#3147038 13-Oct-2023 06:15

Rikkitic:

Today I voted. It was a tough choice. I did not feel that any party deserved my token of approval. I seriously considered not voting at all, which is also a vote. What finally decided me was Chris Luxon, who said something that really outraged me. So for the first time ever I voted for Labour, just to piss him off.

News flash...you didnt piss him off at all.

SaltyNZ

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#3147048 13-Oct-2023 07:24

Bluntj:

News flash...you didnt piss him off at all.

Will he be more pissed off if he doesn't get to be Prime Minister at all, or if he gets to be the Prime Minister who tried to squeeze Peters & Seymour together so they went prompt critical and exploded?

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#3147049 13-Oct-2023 07:25

Rikkitic:

Today I voted. It was a tough choice. I did not feel that any party deserved my token of approval. I seriously considered not voting at all, which is also a vote. What finally decided me was Chris Luxon, who said something that really outraged me. So for the first time ever I voted for Labour, just to piss him off.

This made me smile🙂. I've been reading your forum posts in Politics for a few years. It's not as if you were ever going to vote right of centre.

Did Eric Clapton really think she looked wonderful...or was it after the 15th outfit she tried on and he just wanted to get to the party and get a drink?

Rikkitic

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#3147052 13-Oct-2023 07:42

Bluntj:

Rikkitic:

Today I voted. It was a tough choice. I did not feel that any party deserved my token of approval. I seriously considered not voting at all, which is also a vote. What finally decided me was Chris Luxon, who said something that really outraged me. So for the first time ever I voted for Labour, just to piss him off.

News flash...you didnt piss him off at all.

The way he has been pleading the last days not to vote Labour, I imagine I did.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Rikkitic

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#3147054 13-Oct-2023 07:48

mattwnz:

What did he say? What gets me is that he doesn't answer questions, and just tries to spin things around and around, and many National voters don't seem to like him. He is a poor mans version of John Key imo, and seem to totally lack personality, which you need as a PM, and is detached from your average working person, so he can't relate. At least he hasn't mentioned that he was a CEO for a while.

He made a crack about Hipkins' covid diagnosis being the only positive thing to come out of the government. It was cheap, low class, inappropriate, not clever, and revealing of his utter lack of character. What I really want to say would get me banned so I will just leave it at that.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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