NZ 2023 Election Thread

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tdgeek

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#306395 18-Jul-2023 18:13

Mr GV, whose posts I admire, although we disagree more than agree, caused a threat to close the What Happens to National Thread. Inadvertently I pushed that, so it was closed my MF

So, given that the Chris Hipkins thread is about him only and the extinct National thread is now extinct, I want to right the wrongs

The NZ 2023 Election Thread is about the election. Subject to MF and the moderators, its about the election

You can brickbat or bouquet either party.

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#3105699 18-Jul-2023 18:15

@freitasm, apologies for the indiscretion.

quickymart

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#3105821 18-Jul-2023 22:25

https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/17-07-2023/fringe-right-parties-crop-up-in-new-poll

Some interesting polling results so far. Let's hope the conspiracy theory parties don't grow their share, although if they did I wonder whose expense it would be at.

GV27

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#3105867 19-Jul-2023 09:29

The campaign period begins three months out from polling day, so perhaps an all-purpose thread is a good idea for the time being.

SJB

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#3105931 19-Jul-2023 13:04

quickymart:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/17-07-2023/fringe-right-parties-crop-up-in-new-poll

Some interesting polling results so far. Let's hope the conspiracy theory parties don't grow their share, although if they did I wonder whose expense it would be at.

Those small party percentages are meaningless. The margin of error in that poll is something like 3%.

I don't know why they bother mentioning any party under the margin of error.

sen8or

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#3106002 19-Jul-2023 16:31

So the "could" be nearing the 5% mark if the 3% margin of error worked in their favour?

I realise that is extremely unlikely, but do we really want media deliberately omitting results from polls?

tdgeek

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#3106024 19-Jul-2023 17:42

SJB:

Those small party percentages are meaningless. The margin of error in that poll is something like 3%.

I don't know why they bother mentioning any party under the margin of error.

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Handle9

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#3106450 21-Jul-2023 07:00

sen8or:
So the "could" be nearing the 5% mark if the 3% margin of error worked in their favour?

I realise that is extremely unlikely, but do we really want media deliberately omitting results from polls?

By the same logic they “could” be nearing -1.5%. Of course that’s not how margins of error work. It’s a 95% confidence interval not a random distribution.

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quickymart

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#3106457 21-Jul-2023 07:24

With a bit of luck Tamaki and his flock (as well as the rest of the conspiracy theory crowd) won't get anywhere near Parliament 🤞

GV27

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#3106474 21-Jul-2023 08:31

The conspiracy movements have been good at stripping out dickheads from our major political parties and tarnishing them forever, whereas before they might have been able to live in plain sight.

sen8or

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#3106529 21-Jul-2023 08:53

Handle9:
sen8or:

So the "could" be nearing the 5% mark if the 3% margin of error worked in their favour?

I realise that is extremely unlikely, but do we really want media deliberately omitting results from polls?

By the same logic they “could” be nearing -1.5%. Of course that’s not how margins of error work. It’s a 95% confidence interval not a random distribution.

Indeed, but the point wasn't so much about the actual % they may receive, more that media shouldn't be omitting results

quickymart

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#3107129 23-Jul-2023 07:34

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/07/election-2023-new-zealand-first-leader-winston-peters-warming-up-for-comeback-as-party-selects-new-faces.html >> well, I think we can see which court Winston wants to play in

...conversely...

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2023/07/newshub-nation-panel-commentators-predict-winston-peters-will-struggle-to-make-political-comeback.html

SJB

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#3107136 23-Jul-2023 09:14

quickymart:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2023/07/newshub-nation-panel-commentators-predict-winston-peters-will-struggle-to-make-political-comeback.html

Some good news for a change.

Technofreak

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#3107268 23-Jul-2023 11:59

quickymart:

...conversely...

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2023/07/newshub-nation-panel-commentators-predict-winston-peters-will-struggle-to-make-political-comeback.html

They'd be just as accurate in their predictions as forecasting the weather. As much as I absolutely detest Winnie I would never bet agains. his political resurrection. That article isn't worth the paper it's written on or in more modern parlance the pixels on the screen.

Same goes for most political predictions no matter the party. Right now I'd say the political climate favours a National led government but I wouldn't bet on that either.

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tdgeek

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#3107269 23-Jul-2023 12:09

quickymart:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/07/election-2023-new-zealand-first-leader-winston-peters-warming-up-for-comeback-as-party-selects-new-faces.html >> well, I think we can see which court Winston wants to play in

...conversely...

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2023/07/newshub-nation-panel-commentators-predict-winston-peters-will-struggle-to-make-political-comeback.html

He will go a dollar each way. he can cite why he will never partner with National or Labour again, but leaders have been CTRL-ALT-DELETE(d) so he will be all in. He would have to settle with lots of little bribes that sound good but wont cost NAT or LAB much.

As has been stated I wouldn't bet on anything. I can think of reasons that could give a few different results.

quickymart

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#3107346 23-Jul-2023 17:54

Technofreak:

quickymart:

...conversely...

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2023/07/newshub-nation-panel-commentators-predict-winston-peters-will-struggle-to-make-political-comeback.html

They'd be just as accurate in their predictions as forecasting the weather. As much as I absolutely detest Winnie I would never bet agains. his political resurrection. That article isn't worth the paper it's written on or in more modern parlance the pixels on the screen.

Same goes for most political predictions no matter the party. Right now I'd say the political climate favours a National led government but I wouldn't bet on that either.

His polling of late has been extremely low. Mind you, the election is still about three months away.

I hope the conspiracy theory bs parties stay at the low levels they're at, they have no business being anywhere near government.

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