NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3159432 14-Nov-2023 12:53

I wonder how hard ACT will push. They are in effect, also Kingmakers. Prior to the election they were running hot. Seymour often publically disagreeing with National. It seemed to be "his time". His policies were real change. Not just a National change, but for ACT to be more than a vote provider. Just before the election they fell back. But, with a weak PM to be, I feel he will push ACT's interests more than ever

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#3159439 14-Nov-2023 13:05

tdgeek:

I wonder how hard ACT will push. They are in effect, also Kingmakers. Prior to the election they were running hot. Seymour often publically disagreeing with National. It seemed to be "his time". His policies were real change. Not just a National change, but for ACT to be more than a vote provider. Just before the election they fell back. But, with a weak PM to be, I feel he will push ACT's interests more than ever

Love to be a fly on the wall. They're kingmakers, sure. But lots of people like to say the Green Party are weak and can't get as much as they want because they will only work with Labour. Well, ACT will also only work with National. So they may be kingmakers, but they don't have a plan B. Seymour will have to walk a fine line to decide whether he will deliver more for his donors by attempting to work with National or throwing a tantrum and sitting on the cross benches.

Wildcard/hilarity ensues option: Mr. Mergers & Acquisitions fails to land an acceptable deal with either ACT or NZF and they both sit on the cross benches voting against each other.

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#3159477 14-Nov-2023 15:03

Ok my list on what NZF ACT National might agree on.

So NZF will get a referendum on something next election, just a matter of deciding what.
Your'e going to buy yourself 3 years of chaos if its the Treaty.

Everyone gets cuts in Government and Government services so we can complain more on their lack of delivery. Which can then feed more cuts.

Consultants will be called something else as they don't exist, but doubly needed, due to cuts?

Charter schools back, so if you want to get a free farmlet paid for by taxpayers submit your plan now.

Healthcare will have further elimination of costs by miracle of more bureaucrats to create more money saving plans. They get bonuses paid on the plan not the later actual delivery.
NZF might be sticking point as they have a strong policy position on healthcare.
Maybe double the bureaucrats producing grander plans will help.

Oh we can't have bureaucrats so others (Not called Consultants), as we signed up to gut Government departments. They still get bonuses on plans ahead of actual measured savings.

Live exports of our best animal genetics will get shipped to China, cos like Kiwifruit vines short term gains are everything.
If another crew dies at least the animals did not suffer for long as it goes straight to the bottom.
Oh no one noticed the crew died anyway.

Fishing and Trucking industries will get some gifts along with Auckland getting rates rise to pay for lower fuel tax.
That long line that starts at extremities of city just gets longer as public transport defunded to contain rates.

Ministries will spend more money changing names and devolving so more cuts in essential services.

Government requirements on clean water are eased, and communities that struggle with infrastructure keep struggling.

Tax cuts. 2 Dollar shops rejoice.

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#3159478 14-Nov-2023 15:12

ezbee:

Consultants will be called something else as they don't exist, but doubly needed, due to cuts?

"Public Private Partnerships"

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#3159490 14-Nov-2023 15:44

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301007984/tova-obrien-christopher-luxons-inexperience-costs-him-international-power-play >> I would agree with this assessment. Honestly I don't feel this bodes well.

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#3159501 14-Nov-2023 16:04

quickymart:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301007984/tova-obrien-christopher-luxons-inexperience-costs-him-international-power-play >> I would agree with this assessment. Honestly I don't feel this bodes well.

One thing that I picked up, is that Luxon always mentioned arrangements. To me, that's a Confidence and Supply agreement. NZF is a coalition partner, that's not an arrangement. Its a partnership, a National-NZF government. Little points like that seem to happen a lot. Had he been experienced, the negotations would be a little less difficult. But appears to me he's being walked over by two pro's

ockel

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#3159541 14-Nov-2023 19:43

ezbee:

Ok my list on what NZF ACT National might agree on.

So NZF will get a referendum on something next election, just a matter of deciding what.
Your'e going to buy yourself 3 years of chaos if its the Treaty.

Everyone gets cuts in Government and Government services so we can complain more on their lack of delivery. Which can then feed more cuts.

Consultants will be called something else as they don't exist, but doubly needed, due to cuts?

Charter schools back, so if you want to get a free farmlet paid for by taxpayers submit your plan now.

Healthcare will have further elimination of costs by miracle of more bureaucrats to create more money saving plans. They get bonuses paid on the plan not the later actual delivery.
NZF might be sticking point as they have a strong policy position on healthcare.
Maybe double the bureaucrats producing grander plans will help.

Oh we can't have bureaucrats so others (Not called Consultants), as we signed up to gut Government departments. They still get bonuses on plans ahead of actual measured savings.

Live exports of our best animal genetics will get shipped to China, cos like Kiwifruit vines short term gains are everything.
If another crew dies at least the animals did not suffer for long as it goes straight to the bottom.
Oh no one noticed the crew died anyway.

Fishing and Trucking industries will get some gifts along with Auckland getting rates rise to pay for lower fuel tax.
That long line that starts at extremities of city just gets longer as public transport defunded to contain rates.

Ministries will spend more money changing names and devolving so more cuts in essential services.

Government requirements on clean water are eased, and communities that struggle with infrastructure keep struggling.

Tax cuts. 2 Dollar shops rejoice.

It kind of reminds me of the phrase "when a child says I dont believe in fairies, a fairy dies". If only there was a similar corollary for public servants.

Craig Rennie, economist for the Labour Party was in a publication recently (I think the NZH at the weekend), saying that with these coalition talks that to achieve Nationals tax cuts AND accommodate the NZF/ACT demands then the public sector needs to be cut by 27%. An ironic number. Given that Covid bloated spend by 40% a reduction of 27% actually reduces it to a pre-Covid size, something that should have been done by the outgoing Government. Music to my financial ears.

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GV27

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#3159551 14-Nov-2023 20:23

ockel:

Craig Rennie, economist for the Labour Party was in a publication recently (I think the NZH at the weekend), saying that with these coalition talks that to achieve Nationals tax cuts AND accommodate the NZF/ACT demands then the public sector needs to be cut by 27%. An ironic number. Given that Covid bloated spend by 40% a reduction of 27% actually reduces it to a pre-Covid size, something that should have been done by the outgoing Government. Music to my financial ears.

There's literally no chance that ACT or NZ First would get all of their demands in, so that's a pretty duplicitious attempt to stir up panic.

ockel

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#3159557 14-Nov-2023 21:27

GV27:

ockel:

Craig Rennie, economist for the Labour Party was in a publication recently (I think the NZH at the weekend), saying that with these coalition talks that to achieve Nationals tax cuts AND accommodate the NZF/ACT demands then the public sector needs to be cut by 27%. An ironic number. Given that Covid bloated spend by 40% a reduction of 27% actually reduces it to a pre-Covid size, something that should have been done by the outgoing Government. Music to my financial ears.

There's literally no chance that ACT or NZ First would get all of their demands in, so that's a pretty duplicitious attempt to stir up panic.

It would be most out of character for Rennie to stir up panic (sic).

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#3159562 14-Nov-2023 22:07

ockel:

Rennie

Who?

Handle9

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#3159564 14-Nov-2023 22:10

quickymart:
ockel:

Rennie

Who?

Craig Renney
CTU (not Labour as was posted) economist.

Handle9

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#3159567 14-Nov-2023 22:19

GV27:

ockel:

Craig Rennie, economist for the Labour Party was in a publication recently (I think the NZH at the weekend), saying that with these coalition talks that to achieve Nationals tax cuts AND accommodate the NZF/ACT demands then the public sector needs to be cut by 27%. An ironic number. Given that Covid bloated spend by 40% a reduction of 27% actually reduces it to a pre-Covid size, something that should have been done by the outgoing Government. Music to my financial ears.

There's literally no chance that ACT or NZ First would get all of their demands in, so that's a pretty duplicitious attempt to stir up panic.

By @ockel? Yes I would agree.

This is what was actually written:

The centrepiece of National’s election campaign was $14.6 billion of income and landlord tax cuts. Some $3b of that was financed by a new tax on overseas property buyers. That’s now all but certainly gone, as it is unthinkable that NZ First would tolerate the sale of Kiwi houses to overseas buyers. Filling the gap left by the loss of that new tax would require a doubling of the indicated cuts to the public service – to 17 per cent.

That’s not feasible either, politically or practically. So, the promise to return a range of tax benefits for landlords will probably have to go. In a cost of living crisis, providing these made little economic sense to begin with. They put money in the pockets of those who have already done really well over the past two decades, yet the cuts deliver small (if any) value to the taxpayer or the economy.

ockel

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#3159582 15-Nov-2023 07:25

Handle9:

By @ockel? Yes I would agree.

This is what was actually written:

The centrepiece of National’s election campaign was $14.6 billion of income and landlord tax cuts. Some $3b of that was financed by a new tax on overseas property buyers. That’s now all but certainly gone, as it is unthinkable that NZ First would tolerate the sale of Kiwi houses to overseas buyers. Filling the gap left by the loss of that new tax would require a doubling of the indicated cuts to the public service – to 17 per cent.

That’s not feasible either, politically or practically. So, the promise to return a range of tax benefits for landlords will probably have to go. In a cost of living crisis, providing these made little economic sense to begin with. They put money in the pockets of those who have already done really well over the past two decades, yet the cuts deliver small (if any) value to the taxpayer or the economy.

I think you missed the essence of his article if you're only quoting a part of it.

In addition he highlighted NZF wanting to keep depreciation on commercial buildings (another $2.1bn) and use of CERF for a new PGF (another $2.3bn). Add those up and you have a significant increase in cuts to the public service. Working through the math = a 27% cut, which takes the Govt sector back to a pre Covid size. Shock horror.

And I stand by Renny being the Labour Party economist. His previous role was economic adviser to Robertson when Labour was previously in Opposition. Leopard, spots.

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#3159583 15-Nov-2023 07:28

If National have to give up the landlord stuff or gradually reintroduce interest deductibility over time instead of in one hit then that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

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#3159585 15-Nov-2023 07:35

Lol. The essence of the article was that there would have to be compromises in the parties agendas and that they shouldn’t rush to make changes. I’ll quote the conclusion of the article for you seeing you don’t seem interested in actually citing anything.

All of this shows the challenges facing the three parties in pulling together a package that allows them to work together. What it also suggests is that rather than rushing headlong into tax and other changes at a December mini-Budget, some caution and restraint would be appropriate. The parties could spend a little more time working out what is actually needed, and how they will deliver that, without borrowing extra for tax cuts.If you want an example of the headlong approach in action, look no further than the UK and the problems the Liz Truss government faced. It famously lasted less time than it took for an iceberg lettuce to wilt. Rushing to deliver tax cuts now for ideological purposes is likely to haunt all involved and will likely require painful changes in the future. The title track of the movie Sliding Doors is called Turn Back Time. The incoming Finance Minister might well be whistling that tune if they can’t get it right over the next few weeks.

If you’re going to make accusations of others inciting panic you need to be accurate in what you are saying. You’re just making stuff up at this point.

If anyone is interested in reading the original article it’s here: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/craig-renney-difficult-tax-choices-ahead-for-national-in-talks-with-nz-first-and-act

It’s paywalled but I’m sure everyone will manage.

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