2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3298325 17-Oct-2024 01:01

TeaLeaf:

Donald Trump’s mental health becomes an issue again | CNN Politics

Just search "Trump mental health", and it's become an actual issue finally. I do wonder, though, will he somehow avoid a Psych evaluation..... Cognition is not the only problem.

Speculation is that 20 months into the Trump presidency (if it occurs), Vance will invoke the 25th Amendment and replace Trump as president to implement the Christo-fascist agenda known as Project 2025 and have two and a half terms in which to do it (weird quirk - the 20-month mark is where a VP replacement stops counting as a "term" for the term limit).

A scary number of billionaires are counting on that agenda passing, including Thiel (a New Zealand citizen; thanks National) and Musk. Musk is counting on deregulating "all the things", and Thiel wants free reign to destroy his enemies and control people (seriously, "Palantir"?).

kingdragonfly

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#3298346 17-Oct-2024 08:39

Some rough language NSFW.

Mentioned in passing is Matt Gaetz, Republican congressman from Florida alleged sex trafficker of underage girl.

Also in passing, Feds' raid of "P Diddy" which unearthed 1,000 bottles of sexual lubricant and firearms. He is charged with racketeering conspiracy, sex trafficking by force and transportation for purposes of prostitution.

Lewis Black Has a Message For Undecided Voters in the 2024 Election

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freitasm

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#3298372 17-Oct-2024 10:16

One hundred years old. What a legend. Go, Carter!

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kingdragonfly

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#3298652 17-Oct-2024 17:24

Yesterday's all women Trump gathering had the most women around Trump since he “stroll right in” to the dressing rooms of beauty pageants while the contestants - some of whom were teenagers - were naked or half-dressed.

"I.V.F.": a common fertility procedure, typically involves creating multiple embryos and either discarding or indefinitely freezing unused ones.

Trump Raises Eyebrows by Proclaiming Himself the ‘Father of I.V.F.’: New York Times

Former President Donald J. Trump declared himself the “father of I.V.F.” in a town-hall event Tuesday focused on women’s issues, an eyebrow-raising nickname that was his latest attempt to claim an advantage on a matter that has become a political liability.

The Supreme Court justices Mr. Trump appointed enabled the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a ruling that he has praised and that opened the door to possible restrictions on in vitro fertilization.

“We really are the party for I.V.F.,” Mr. Trump said in the town hall, which was hosted by Fox News and aired on Wednesday. He has expressed support for I.V.F. in recent months, but he did not discuss or promote it before this year.

“We want fertilization, and it’s all the way, and the Democrats tried to attack us on it, and we’re out there on I.V.F., even more than them,” he said.

Congressional Republicans have voted twice in the past four months to block bills that would protect the legality of I.V.F., including one that would also guarantee insurance coverage of it, which Mr. Trump has said he wants to do.
...
The availability of in vitro fertilization has been at issue in the 2024 campaigns for the presidency and Congress since the Alabama Supreme Court ruled this year that it was illegal because embryos were children under the state’s constitution.
...

GV27

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#3298655 17-Oct-2024 17:30

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/15/nx-s1-5153420/swing-state-map-donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls

In 2016 and 2020, surveys in the presidential election overstated Democrats’ standing. Even though Biden won in 2020, he had been leading by more in many swing state polls than what the final result showed. Does that mean Trump will win this election? Maybe. Or have the pollsters corrected errors, making this more of a true coin-flip race? That’s possible, too.

It is absolutely insane that the gap is closing at this point. Harris is raising megabucks in swing states, but the momentum is with Trump. Almost all of the gains of the Biden > Harris switch have evaporated.

All I know is I wish I could take the 6th off to watch this unfold. Seems like we're heading towards one of those 'where were you when' moments in time that we all can see coming, but no one can do anything about.

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#3298673 17-Oct-2024 18:36

GV27:

All I know is I wish I could take the 6th off to watch this unfold. Seems like we're heading towards one of those 'where were you when' moments in time that we all can see coming, but no one can do anything about.

Yeah I expect I'll have one of those live update sites scrolling away in the background as I work...

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quickymart

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#3298681 17-Oct-2024 18:50

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/17/politics/harris-fox-new-trump-analysis/index.html

Kudos to Harris for going on Fox. Given the orange buffoon chickened out of another debate and also another interview, good on her for going to the opposite to make her case...something he seems to be scared of doing.

TeaLeaf

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#3298817 18-Oct-2024 09:23

quickymart:

Kudos to Harris for going on Fox.

it appears to have gone down better than I expected, I couldnt watch it after the first heated exchange. I think she painted Don in the correct light without going over the top and has possibly appealed to some key swing state voters who voted Haley as protest votes.

an odd situation of Michigan trending Red of late and NC trending Blue, swapsies..... If Harris loses Penn she would have to hold Mich and win NC while holding Nevada. By my count that would be Harris 273.

But who knows, so much inconsistency in poll quality and which way they lean it could go either way, Harris team seems confident though. I think they are counting on voter turn out.

Something odd is RBKjr, his polls have kicikd up in the last 5 days or so from 2% to 3.4%, at least thats how it appears on RTTWH website, could just be a bad outlier poll, not sure................

I thought the Harris interview with Charlamagne was really good, hes matured as an interviewer imo.

TeaLeaf

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#3298878 18-Oct-2024 14:29

Harris beat back Brett imo, like NPR have framed it "Harris interview on Fox gets testy — but also gives her a do-over"

I think thats pretty spot on. Despite Brett interrupting her almost from the start and only in the last 30 seconds apologising for it, she managed to Frame Trump for who he really is. She explained he collapsed the border bill. He has no solutions focussed on the american people etc. Whilst Fox and its tribe of comments on YouTube are claiming a win, I dont think they realise the only reason Trump is in this is because of their gross negligience for a more moderate and fair representation of a Vice President blaming it all on her when she is yet to be judged as a President.

I think she went on knowing the only way to reach those uncommitted republicans is face their source of Media with courage, which she did.

I actually think a less hostile interview with Brett to explain who she is and why she will be different from Biden and Trump would actually be a good idea.

Im more keen on that than going on sometimes dim wit Joe Brogan........

Either way, this will reach those wanting to know more and get to know if she is strong enough, I think she came across respectfully Fierce and when it came to patriotism about being a President she spoke with a command of her emotions, but very much a woman of power. Not the weak far leftist some think of her. If anything as a VP she has become far more a realist and sits Left Centre with Guns and wanting the US to be the most lethal military on earth. I like the way she frames things like Guns, you can have both, you just have to be smart about it.

Here Harris calls out the fake edited clip then about 3:50 in goes all Presidential on what a democracy is. Perfect. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csBIE3L2ryg

Brett tried to downplay this "enemy from within" Trump is promoting, with a clip from the town hall which is not what Harris is refering to, in fact he talks about it in that town hall softball interview if they used that correct clip. Just on that, they havnt made it clear all the women are maga or conservative republicans. Its kinda sketchy how Trump keeps getting these Fox interviews. Did Trump fund Fox at one point or something?

kingdragonfly

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#3298953 18-Oct-2024 17:25

They're still saner than most libertarians.

Who Will Juggalos Vote for? Troy Iwata Visits Gathering of the Juggalos to Find Out

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quickymart

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#3299059 19-Oct-2024 13:52

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/us-election-2024/531267/us-election-harris-targets-trump-s-age-after-report-of-exhaustion

This is good, I remember the Republicans going all-out to constantly hammer Biden over his age, they must be hating the fact that the tables have been turned, and they now have the oldest candidate running for president in US history!

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quickymart

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#3299073 19-Oct-2024 15:18

A bit late, but quite a few good (IMO) election-related cartoons this week:

An alternate version of the weird dancing-rally-thing featuring the orange buffoon:

Indeed, Halloween isn't too far away:

What Reagan might say if he was alive today and saw the current state of the Republican Party:

(if you can't read it, Musk's t-shirt says "WORLD'S RICHEST CHEERLEADER")

😀

TeaLeaf

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#3299081 19-Oct-2024 16:02

quickymart:he Republicans going all-out to constantly hammer Biden over his age, they must be hating the fact that the tables have been turned, and they now have the oldest candidate running for president in US history!

Take all the below as pure opinion, dont rely upon it, some interesting links though. Its just how I see it this far out with the veil of uncertainty more and more closed every day.

Re that quote QM, how long have I been suggesting this should have been pointed out that the other guy is just as, or more, unfit for purpose :-) its not even a tactic, its more like reality. Had her Team started with it, saying hes just as mentally declined as Biden etc, they could be facing a much clearer picture going into the last two weeks. But to me, it seems to be gathering pace, especially from a Security and foreign affairs perspective. Don seems to think the US does not need its allies including Canada, where Harris clearly knows the US cannot keep world peace by itself.

Democrats are notoriously anxious hand ringers though. However I see no data to suggest Harris to be an earnt favourite.

as one political scientist was quoted recently, words to the effect of, polls are notoriously bad tools for predicting voter turn out. Sorry I forget the chaps name, but I dont think many would argue with this.

Ive been doing math day in day out based on Harris likely turnout, which trumps (no pun) poll turnout methodology. Georgia records its largest ever early voter turn out, NC first day of voting beats Biden's in 2020. So many factors but I personally think (and Im ok with being wrong), Harris will pull a greater turnout than Bidens which was a record and Trump (unless musks super pac technology canvassing turns out to be better than tried and true) will likely pull numbers similar to 2020, even with a lower Popular vote gap poll. Of course I could be very wrong and even with a similar voter turnout gap to 2020 Harris could lose, so do not take this as fact but a humble opinion on turn out. But this NYT piece on the "Ground Game" is worth the read https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/us/politics/trump-harris-campaign-ground-game.html

IMO witout RFKjr Harris would have a ~4-5% lead not ~3%. I do wonder though if Stein (~1%) would be game as a lefty to endorse Harris for a role, related to arab amercian affairs etc. Surely would solve the problem in the blue wall like Michigan which we all know sounded off about 3 months back, Harris is the first to start putting Palestine's right to dignity (and rightly so) into her speaches, I just hope that is not falling on deaf ears in those key stats.

My early prediction which could be so very very wrong is similar to this Ex-Republican operative says Harris will win in November ‘maybe easily’ | The Independent

To me its ALL about the voter turnout but also where, Trump has a "loyal" base but Harris has an extremely "excited" based and I think that is what will win the election, but Michigan and arab american votes still worry me. I think Harris should afford some time to speak with them and calm there fears but also point out if you vote for Don you are voting for "Finish the job", which clearly Harris has a much more Humane perspective than Don or even Joe.

I think Harris now in hind sight won that Fox interview, she got everything she wanted and more, possibly digging into the Trump moderate Nikki Haley voters but also painting Don in the light of reality. Brett is saying he didnt deliberately play the wrong clip of Trump and "enemy within" but other Fox ppl saying he did, but what a catch by Harris, incredible to say on the fly thats not the entire piece its edited etc.

His town hall with all maga women and a Fox ancchor women, it did not imo sway anyone to believe he is for women's rights. That awkward start commenting on how attractive someone is etc.

I think Harris going on Faulkner Harris could be a softer but more productive Fox interview. I dont think Faulkner would burn Kamala (unless they put her job on the line....)

The bloomberg business sit down, crowds clapping to him wanting to put 100% tariffs on companies because he seems sure they will set up factories in the US, he is so basic minded and has no economics knowledge, its all just transactional. These large companies have man other markets to make up for the US and if it means losing jobs in their own countries it just isnt going to happen. Sure they may set up assembly plants like some euro cars do, but not production as well. Toyota is not moving EVERYTHING to the US just because Don will put a 100% tariff. I understand what he thinks he is doing but I dont think he realises what he will actually be doing. You hear claps from US folk but they are the wealthy not the low to middle class that if he Isolates the US will pay darely for it. Economics is more complex than Don tries to make it out to be and he has sold half the US on thinking they can demand what they want.

quickymart

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#3299089 19-Oct-2024 17:43

Some good points in today's Bulwark, this one stuck out to me though:

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/all-the-ex-presidents-cowering-men

THE GREATEST . . . EVA: Last night was the Al Smith dinner, the annual white-tie Catholic charity gathering where, every four years, presidential candidates yuk it up. This year, Kamala Harris skipped the event, sending in a video instead. Trump, meanwhile, did his usual thing: going a bit too far in roasting everyone but himself. We won’t bore you with the recap. What stood out to us, instead, was the reaction from one of Trump’s aides, Stephen Miller.

“That was the single best comedy performance of ANY president or candidate for president in history,” Miller tweeted.

In history??? You might be thinking to yourself: Hmmm, that seems a bit strong. But, hear us out. Steve isn’t one for overstatement. Just look.

Trump’s recent appearance at the Economic Club of Chicago: “the greatest live interview any political leader or politician has done on the economy in our lifetimes. Period.”

Trump’s recent speech in Detroit: “the most pro-Detroit pro-Michigan pro-America economic plan in history.”

Trump’s 2017 speech in Warsaw: “one of the greatest speeches in the history of the presidency.”

The formal nomination of Harris as the Democratic nominee: “Has there ever been a bigger political scandal in US history?”

John Fetterman: “the most pro-criminal politician ever to run for Senate.”

The federal government’s response to Hurricane Helene: a betrayal of the country “as no American leaders ever have before.”

The show Magnum, P.I.: “One of the greatest TV shows of all-time. Tom Selleck is a national treasure.”

Donald Trump’s debate against Biden: “The single greatest, biggest and most spectacular debate victory in American history.”

On that last one . . . he has a point.

This guy was responsible for some of the orange buffoon's more racist immigration policies.

TeaLeaf

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#3299092 19-Oct-2024 18:00

Geeze I wish stuff like this came out much earlier, Trump has people thinking he understands economics when he doesnt even understand a balance sheet. 6 times bankrupt is a lot. To now be convincing people he is the boss and will increase jobs etc with Tariffs, the cost to do so to the country is huge. The policy just doesnt stack up but like in this article he cannot handle criticism, instead he doubles down on it.

NBC exec apologizes for creating a ‘monster’ by embellishing Trump’s business success for ‘The Apprentice’ | The Independent

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