Atmospheric CO2 now 410 parts per million. Uh oh.....

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#2069646 8-Aug-2018 08:31

A compelling and layman's read

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/106092239/many-parts-of-earth-could-become-uninhabitable-studys-grim-warning

Especially

Those elements included the reduction of Antarctic sea ice and polar sheets, the release of methane trapped on the ocean floor and Amazon rainforest dieback.

They are the big three. less ice means less solar reflected away, huge methane also exists in Siberia, a lot of it is in tundra that is barely below freezing, and the Amazon is a large releaser of O and a soak for CO2.

This represents the first half of a Bell Curve

kingdragonfly

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#2069885 8-Aug-2018 13:48

I know it's not going to be a popular observation, but countries near the poles like New Zealand, Russia Canada could be .. not winners ... but not as big of losers as the US, China and India.

Of course if the poles become tropical forest, as they done before, there won't be any winners

Rikkitic

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#2070077 8-Aug-2018 15:19

And what happens to New Zealanders when the Americans decide to move here?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2070102 8-Aug-2018 15:54

Rikkitic:

And what happens to New Zealanders when the Americans decide to move here?

I would worry about China before America. They have been building a lot of military ordinance.

Mike

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#2070150 8-Aug-2018 16:48

Alaska is 6x the size of NZ, and about 1/6 the population (740,000)

Alaska is larger than all but 18 sovereign countries.

I guess the smart money would be for Americans to buy bolt-holes there.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/barrow-alaska-ground-zero-for-climate-change-7553696/

"The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, according to a 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report, the most recent available. Summer sea ice in the region shrank by nearly 40 percent between 1978 and 2007. Winter temperatures have been several degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they were a few decades ago. Trees have spread into the tundra. In 2008, a wildfire broke out in an area north of the Brooks Range, where the local dialect had no word for forest fire"

Fred99

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#2070168 8-Aug-2018 18:17

kingdragonfly: In 2008, a wildfire broke out in an area north of the Brooks Range, where the local dialect had no word for forest fire"

...but 50 words for snow.

Actually - by our use of "forest fire" instead of "a word" - perhaps we don't either.

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#2070348 9-Aug-2018 03:50

kingdragonfly:

Alaska is larger than all but 18 sovereign countries.

I guess the smart money would be for Americans to buy bolt-holes there.

The problem with Alaska – or Northern Canada is the outsize effected global warming'll have there.

You'll need to share your paradise not only with economic refugees but waves of starving bears and wolves driven before fires burning out the dry, pine-beetle killed forest. The few fertile river valleys, swept by floodwaters as high altitude snowfall turns to rain and the glaciers melt, will eventually dry out as rivers reduce to a trickle. And once the caribou and salmon are gone you'll be reliant on berries - or food grown in the drought ravaged lower 48.

The best bolt-hole to escape catastrophic global warming would be a relatively small, steeply rising, temperate country, surrounded by a gigantic moat – maybe 4,000km wide - both to fend off the starving hordes and provide a climate moderating heat sink.

It'd need to be be politically stable, with a smallish well educated population, good healthcare, a modern, flexible industrial base and -importantly- be self sufficient in fresh water, food and energy.

The smart money's buying bolt-holes there..

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#2070359 9-Aug-2018 07:20

"Imagine an enormous rainforest, teaming with life, trees, insects, pretty little birds.

Primates are climbing up in the canopy while crocodiles and turtles swim in the rivers below.

Beautiful, isn't it? Now imagine this lush rainforest in the artic."

The Last Time the Globe Warmed

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#2070609 9-Aug-2018 12:41

Whilst I expect it would be very pleasant to live at the North Pole (presumably aboard a boat) at 23C, the problem is that the places where people do live now will mostly be drowned. Or deserts.

Probably also the warmer climate will make life as a cold-blooded animal much easier than it is now, so we could expect a decrease in mammals and increase in reptile and insect numbers.

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#2082881 2-Sep-2018 20:02

Oh the irony

https://globalnews.ca/news/4406997/u-s-big-oil-storm-protection-climate-change/

Big oil companies want the U.S. government to protect them from climate change
By Will Weissert
The Associated Press

"As the U.S. plans new defenses against the more powerful storms and higher tides expected from climate change, one project stands out: an ambitious proposal to build a nearly 100-kilometre “spine” of concrete seawalls, earthen barriers, floating gates and steel levees on the Texas Gulf Coast.

Like other oceanfront projects, this one would protect homes, delicate ecosystems and vital infrastructure, but it also has another priority — to shield some of the crown jewels of the petroleum industry, which is blamed for contributing to global warming and now wants the federal government to build safeguards against the consequences of it.

The plan is focused on a stretch of coastline that runs from the Louisiana border to industrial enclaves south of Houston that are home to one of the world’s largest concentrations of petrochemical facilities, including most of Texas’ 30 refineries, which represent 30 per cent of the nation’s refining capacity.

Texas is seeking at least $12 billion for the full coastal spine, with nearly all of it coming from public funds. Last month, the government fast-tracked an initial $3.9 billion for three separate, smaller storm barrier projects that would specifically protect oil facilities."

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#2083064 3-Sep-2018 10:32

On a positive note ...

The adoption of renewable energy technology (even in the US) has outstripped predictions by an order of magnitude and the decrease in the cost of solar is rapid - "grid parity" is approaching. The decrease in the cost of batteries looks sluggish by comparison, but is actually doing OK.

Mike

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#2083065 3-Sep-2018 10:36

kingdragonfly: Oh the irony

...

Like other oceanfront projects, this one would protect homes, delicate ecosystems and vital infrastructure, but it also has another priority — to shield some of the crown jewels of the petroleum industry, which is blamed for contributing to global warming and now wants the federal government to build safeguards against the consequences of it.

In another irony, the country with most expertise in coastal protection is the Netherlands. That country also happens to own a little company called Shell.

Profiting from the problem aaaand a solution.

Mike

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#2083218 3-Sep-2018 13:37

Trump will have to get the Mexican border wall built first. Partly to keep the rednecks happy. And partly because he would be admitting that climate change is a problem, if he approves funding to build a different wall that is only needed due to climate change.

And it will take ages to get the Mexican border wall built, if it ever gets built.

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#2083575 4-Sep-2018 09:29

Aredwood: Trump will have to get the Mexican border wall built first. Partly to keep the rednecks happy. And partly because he would be admitting that climate change is a problem, if he approves funding to build a different wall that is only needed due to climate change.

And it will take ages to get the Mexican border wall built, if it ever gets built.

Perhaps he should plant a nice thorny hedge instead. It might be faster, and think of all the carbon captured by a hedge that long. And if it was blackthorn, think of all the sloe gin that could be made (on both sides).

Mike

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#2083588 4-Sep-2018 09:49

MikeAqua:

Aredwood: Trump will have to get the Mexican border wall built first. Partly to keep the rednecks happy. And partly because he would be admitting that climate change is a problem, if he approves funding to build a different wall that is only needed due to climate change.

And it will take ages to get the Mexican border wall built, if it ever gets built.

Perhaps he should plant a nice thorny hedge instead. It might be faster, and think of all the carbon captured by a hedge that long. And if it was blackthorn, think of all the sloe gin that could be made (on both sides).

He already has that, at least in a figurative sense. A shrinking one too :-)

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