White Island eruption

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#2374474 12-Dec-2019 22:54

tdgeek:

If 47 is too may people to risk, 3 or 4 are? My point still stands. Is your point that it should always have been shut down, or that it should be limited to just a few people each visit?

3 or 4 are a hell of a lot less potential fatalities and a hell of a lot easier to evacuate. Sure - I'd be okay with reducing access so only a few could go - better than closing it down entirely - which is what i expect will happen.

eracode

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#2374497 13-Dec-2019 04:15

Mahon:

eracode:

DarthKermit:

We have the technical ability to make cars and planes safer. We can't make volcanoes safer.

Of course we can. We can avoid the danger of volcanoes by not getting close to them. They’re totally safe if you’re nowhere near them.

So based on that Aucklanders should all evacuate???

Of course you’re correct - but I think you know I meant by not wilfully going close to an obviously active volcano and peering down into the crater.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

dafman

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#2374500 13-Dec-2019 06:54

Even if they don't formally close it, how many will choose to go out there in future now the potential has become reality? If not shut down, there will need to be significant change. A significant exclusion zone around the crater and visitors kept close to easily accessible purpose built permanent shelters?

floydbloke

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#2374508 13-Dec-2019 07:21

Kia kaha and good luck to all those involved in the recovery mission today.

Sometimes I use big words I don't always fully understand in an effort to make myself sound more photosynthesis.

eracode

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#2374513 13-Dec-2019 07:41

dafman: Even if they don't formally close it, how many will choose to go out there in future now the potential has become reality? If not shut down, there will need to be significant change. A significant exclusion zone around the crater and visitors kept close to easily accessible purpose built permanent shelters?

My understanding is that until now the decision to visit or not visit on any given day has been in the hands of the tour operators. If tourists are still going to be able to go there, surely this will have to change - not sure who should have control but it needs to be an independent authority. Even the most responsible operator has a conflict of interest between revenue and customer safety.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

frednz

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#2374541 13-Dec-2019 08:38

floydbloke:

Kia kaha and good luck to all those involved in the recovery mission today.

Yes, I agree it's great to see this recovery mission is underway.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/12/white-island-eruption-live-updates-recovery-operation-to-go-ahead-despite-risk-of-eruption.html

GNS Science confirmed the volcano is becoming increasingly unstable, with a 50-60 percent chance of another eruption in the next 24 hours.

It's interesting that, although GNS predict that there's a 50-60% chance of another eruption in the next 24 hours, the above article says:

According to the most recent Geonet update, issued Thursday night, the alert level for White Island remains unchanged, at level 2.

The alert level was also at Level 2 when tourists were still visiting the island.

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GV27

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#2374551 13-Dec-2019 09:05

frednz:

According to the most recent Geonet update, issued Thursday night, the alert level for White Island remains unchanged, at level 2.

The alert level was also at Level 2 when tourists were still visiting the island.

Again, from Geonet:

The Volcanic Alert Level is not linked directly to risk and likelihoods but describes the level of current volcanic activity.

https://www.geonet.org.nz/news/60xDrUB7wRZPZXyBa8xYwE

tdgeek

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#2374556 13-Dec-2019 09:11

frednz:

floydbloke:

Kia kaha and good luck to all those involved in the recovery mission today.

Yes, I agree it's great to see this recovery mission is underway.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/12/white-island-eruption-live-updates-recovery-operation-to-go-ahead-despite-risk-of-eruption.html

GNS Science confirmed the volcano is becoming increasingly unstable, with a 50-60 percent chance of another eruption in the next 24 hours.

It's interesting that, although GNS predict that there's a 50-60% chance of another eruption in the next 24 hours, the above article says:

According to the most recent Geonet update, issued Thursday night, the alert level for White Island remains unchanged, at level 2.

The alert level was also at Level 2 when tourists were still visiting the island.

Yess, thats my point all along. 1 is active and simmering, 2 is unstable, 3 is a small eruption is happening, 4 is medium eruption, 5 is large eruption. There is only one number that is viable.

frednz

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#2374560 13-Dec-2019 09:13

GV27:

frednz:

According to the most recent Geonet update, issued Thursday night, the alert level for White Island remains unchanged, at level 2.

The alert level was also at Level 2 when tourists were still visiting the island.

Again, from Geonet:

The Volcanic Alert Level is not linked directly to risk and likelihoods but describes the level of current volcanic activity.

https://www.geonet.org.nz/news/60xDrUB7wRZPZXyBa8xYwE

Yes, from the above:

For 11 and 12 December, eruption likelihoods have been calculated for a 24-hour time period. The table shows a large increase in eruption likelihoods over time.

The Volcanic Alert Level is not linked directly to risk and likelihoods but describes the level of current volcanic activity.

So, it's good that eruption likelihoods are also published, and it seems that these are also an essential piece of information when deciding on whether to visit the island.

tdgeek

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#2374562 13-Dec-2019 09:16

GV27:

frednz:

According to the most recent Geonet update, issued Thursday night, the alert level for White Island remains unchanged, at level 2.

The alert level was also at Level 2 when tourists were still visiting the island.

Again, from Geonet:

The Volcanic Alert Level is not linked directly to risk and likelihoods but describes the level of current volcanic activity.

https://www.geonet.org.nz/news/60xDrUB7wRZPZXyBa8xYwE

I dont see your point. Its an alert of activity not risk. The alert levels only contain physical parameters of the volcano. But you can easily extrapolate that to "an" alignment to risk levels without needing a Judge to decide foreseeability. 1 is simmering in the usual range of activity, 2 is unstable. Unstable, particularly for a volcano's crater which is where you are standing is a heightened risk of injury. Alert 2 also stated a heightened risk of an eruption.

Fred is right as are you. But a layman can convert the alerts to risk

networkn

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#2374565 13-Dec-2019 09:23

Can someone explain to me, why they wouldn't wait till the status dropped to 1? Surely, overall, the risk is much less at 1 than 2, or 3?

It feels like "pressure" has meant they are heading out there earlier than they would, if the pressure wasn't being applied.

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GV27

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#2374567 13-Dec-2019 09:27

frednz:

For 11 and 12 December, eruption likelihoods have been calculated for a 24-hour time period. The table shows a large increase in eruption likelihoods over time.

The Volcanic Alert Level is not linked directly to risk and likelihoods but describes the level of current volcanic activity.

So, it's good that eruption likelihoods are also published, and it seems that these are also an essential piece of information when deciding on whether to visit the island.

Those metrics are going on in the background, but the most immediate piece of information, the alert level, is not a 'this thing is likely to pop' index like some people keep referring to it as.

It's a 2 until it is actually erupting.

There's a really neat thesis by one of the GNS scientists (Dr Sally Potter) that applied an alert system criteria to recent historic events in Taupo and charted what the alert level would have been had it been in place. It's here if you fancy a read. Also gives you an appreciation for how active Taupo has been in the past thirty years. Also gives a good breakdown of the issues with various ways of communicating unrest:

https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/5654

dafman

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#2374571 13-Dec-2019 09:31

networkn:

Can someone explain to me, why they wouldn't wait till the status dropped to 1? Surely, overall, the risk is much less at 1 than 2, or 3?

It feels like "pressure" has meant they are heading out there earlier than they would, if the pressure wasn't being applied.

The status may not change for days/weeks/years.

They are operating in the shadow of Pike River.

They will get in and out quickly and the affected families can begin closure.

tdgeek

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#2374572 13-Dec-2019 09:36

GV27:

frednz:

For 11 and 12 December, eruption likelihoods have been calculated for a 24-hour time period. The table shows a large increase in eruption likelihoods over time.

The Volcanic Alert Level is not linked directly to risk and likelihoods but describes the level of current volcanic activity.

So, it's good that eruption likelihoods are also published, and it seems that these are also an essential piece of information when deciding on whether to visit the island.

Those metrics are going on in the background, but the most immediate piece of information, the alert level, is not a 'this thing is likely to pop' index like some people keep referring to it as.

It's a 2 until it is actually erupting.

There's a really neat thesis by one of the GNS scientists (Dr Sally Potter) that applied an alert system criteria to recent historic events in Taupo and charted what the alert level would have been had it been in place. It's here if you fancy a read. Also gives you an appreciation for how active Taupo has been in the past thirty years. Also gives a good breakdown of the issues with various ways of communicating unrest:

https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/5654

She does say that "Volcanic unrest is the key indicator of an impending eruption, enabling warnings to be disseminated, and risk to be reduced." Alert 2 was just that. Not an eruption prediction but a key indicator of an impending eruption. It might not happen, it may subside, but IMHO alert 2 is a no go time. Wait till it subsides if it does

tdgeek

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#2374575 13-Dec-2019 09:40

dafman:

networkn:

Can someone explain to me, why they wouldn't wait till the status dropped to 1? Surely, overall, the risk is much less at 1 than 2, or 3?

It feels like "pressure" has meant they are heading out there earlier than they would, if the pressure wasn't being applied.

The status may not change for days/weeks/years.

They are operating in the shadow of Pike River.

They will get in and out quickly and the affected families can begin closure.

Inman thanked Ngāti Awa for the opportunity and the authorities for listening to the families of the deceased.

Where is the safety of the recovery team? People are now back in harms way and there is no opportunity to save lives, they are already lost.

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