Woooaaahh earthquake 2016-11-14

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#1672789 17-Nov-2016 13:49

nzpilot1181:

In terms of communication in Kaikoura and surrounding districts - I'd be interested to know how many, if any, were able to get communication out by using amateur radio? As an ex member of Coastguard I have a VHF set installed in the car - was thinking of removing it but thought it may just come in quite useful in the event of another major disaster where landlines and cellphone towers are knocked out.

I keep a hand-held marine VHF at home, mainly because it's easier to keep the battery charged that way. Also handy for an instant marine forecast if I want it.
I guess it could be handy in genuine emergency on Ch16. One time I used the VHF for non-marine emergency was in the middle of the night when out of cellphone range and needing to arrange a rescue helicopter for an injured tramper we'd found near a beach. That worked fine, but I suppose if lots of people used it after a major disaster, the channels would be a mess.

They keep ramming home the message about being prepared. After the Chch quake we were really on our own, cellphones down, power out, water out, roads impassable or nearly so. It was about 4 hours before I got a message to say my wife and son, both separately in the CBD were okay and on their way home. The only news I was getting was through a battery am/fm radio. Worst nightmare stuff.

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#1672894 17-Nov-2016 15:19

Video of man driving north of Parnassus on SH1.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86557661/New-video-shows-just-how-damaged-SH1-is-after-the-Kaikoura-quake

Not impassable, but that's a huge amount of repair work to come.

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#1672900 17-Nov-2016 15:27

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

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#1672904 17-Nov-2016 15:39

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

There's almost always a quake about 1 magnitude lower within the next 12 months. That's almost a near certain 6.8. (sorry cannot recall exact chance - learnt all these things as we were living in chch in 2010)

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#1672908 17-Nov-2016 15:48

joker97:

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

There's almost always a quake about 1 magnitude lower within the next 12 months. That's almost a near certain 6.8. (sorry cannot recall exact chance - learnt all these things as we were living in chch in 2010)

yep, 1 x 6.8, 10 x 5.8, 100 x 4.8 etc

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#1672920 17-Nov-2016 16:00

tdgeek:

joker97:

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

There's almost always a quake about 1 magnitude lower within the next 12 months. That's almost a near certain 6.8. (sorry cannot recall exact chance - learnt all these things as we were living in chch in 2010)

yep, 1 x 6.8, 10 x 5.8, 100 x 4.8 etc

Those numbers aren't right.
For starters I think from memory we've had well over 10x 5.8 and probably several hundred over 4.8. And it's only been 4 days.

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#1672925 17-Nov-2016 16:10

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gutenberg%E2%80%93Richter_law

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#1672928 17-Nov-2016 16:15

@freitasm - is this you guys?

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#1672938 17-Nov-2016 16:26

Yes, that's the Intergen building. As mentioned before staff was asked to work from home until a report was completed. This happened before the report was done. The building is structurally sound but staff were asked earlier this week to work from home to allow for the report to be completed.

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#1672939 17-Nov-2016 16:27

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

I hate how the media treat these events as clickbait. If you looked at the Geo net website, that 30% probability within 30 days has always existed from day 1.

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#1672946 17-Nov-2016 16:41

Couternay Central evacuated... "It was believed concerns about the structural stability of the Courtenay Central car park sparked the evacuation."

That's the same car park that has just reopened after a couple of years of work to make it safe, after it was closed because of the previous earthquakes.

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#1672959 17-Nov-2016 17:09

geoffwnz:

tdgeek:

joker97:

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

There's almost always a quake about 1 magnitude lower within the next 12 months. That's almost a near certain 6.8. (sorry cannot recall exact chance - learnt all these things as we were living in chch in 2010)

yep, 1 x 6.8, 10 x 5.8, 100 x 4.8 etc

Those numbers aren't right.
For starters I think from memory we've had well over 10x 5.8 and probably several hundred over 4.8. And it's only been 4 days.

That is the formula that they use. Although actually, there are two quakes, so the numbers may change to reflect that. And unlike ChCh, this areas, Seddon and Kaikoura are interacting. The Greendale and Lytellton faults no doubt had some interaction but not at this level.

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#1672960 17-Nov-2016 17:10

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

I hate how the media treat these events as clickbait. If you looked at the Geo net website, that 30% probability within 30 days has always existed from day 1.

I'm not sure how well the average person is equipped to read what look like simple charts to us.

People do want to know - "WTF is going to happen?" even though there are no certain answers.

I think that's okay for the media to tell them accurately and responsibly. What shouldn't be reported is doomsaying/prediction by religious nutters, astrologers, moon-phase lunatics etc.

I believe that GNS may have revised probabilities upwards consistent with the revision of the main shock magnitude up to 7.8 although I don't know what original estimates were.

It's actually stated since noon today as 27% probability of a >= 7.0 over the next 30 days. I think they'll revise that daily as events unfold.

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#1672961 17-Nov-2016 17:15

freitasm:

Couternay Central evacuated... "It was believed concerns about the structural stability of the Courtenay Central car park sparked the evacuation."

That's the same car park that has just reopened after a couple of years of work to make it safe, after it was closed because of the previous earthquakes.

Wasn't the carpark previously damaged in the 2013 quakes? I seem to recall something about that. I think a lot of the land in that area is reclaimed or new shoreline lifted in the 1800's from previous quakes. So I guess it isn't unexpected that it would be damaged in a larger quake like this. But what I do wonder is why they let people return to these buildings after the quake, without indepth checks being done initially?

mattwnz

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#1672963 17-Nov-2016 17:22

Fred99:

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

I hate how the media treat these events as clickbait. If you looked at the Geo net website, that 30% probability within 30 days has always existed from day 1.

I'm not sure how well the average person is equipped to read what look like simple charts to us.

It was on their blog, and they had a very simple table showing probabilities at http://info.geonet.org.nz/di... . Thy still consider 30% as 'unlikely' . So for the media to send an alert today I think is alarmist.

It was similar to after the Christchurch earthquakes, were there was also a similar probability of a very large aftershock. It is always a risk, so there is nothing new there, and 30% is less than a 1/3 chance, and the fact is that it is still just a guesstimate, and they appear to be considering it unlikely. It could be a 5% chance, but it could still occur. It makes no difference, because there is nothing anyone can do anyway, if it happens, it happens, unless you are moving out the area.. There is probably just as much of a chance there will be a large earthquake on another fault, as this seems have triggered other faultlines.

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