Cyclone Lusi discussion thread

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Buzz Bumble

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#1007039 17-Mar-2014 09:26

gzt: Unlike you, my friend, I would be happy to settle for probability of 100% correct 10% of the time. ; ).

Unfortauntely with weather forecasts (or any other predictions for that matter), it's more like "les than 10% correct, 100% of the time". Also like most other predicitions, weather forecasts tend to be vague so they can then try to claim they were "correct" ... a bit like the silly Nostradamus "predictions" that have been "interpreted" to match lots of different events.

MikeB4

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#1007040 17-Mar-2014 09:28

From someone who's life depended on the forecast I can say you are wrong.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

Klipspringer

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#1007078 17-Mar-2014 09:59

Buzz Bumble:
gzt: Unlike you, my friend, I would be happy to settle for probability of 100% correct 10% of the time. ; ).

Unfortauntely with weather forecasts (or any other predictions for that matter), it's more like "les than 10% correct, 100% of the time". Also like most other predicitions, weather forecasts tend to be vague so they can then try to claim they were "correct" ... a bit like the silly Nostradamus "predictions" that have been "interpreted" to match lots of different events.

I think you are generalizing a bit.

Weather forecasters often get it right.

Its just that we live on 2 small islands in south Pacific ocean. Its very difficult to make predictions here in NZ as there are far more variables to conciser as opposed to Australia, Africa etc... Hence, our weather forecasters often get it wrong. Our weather is never constant, and its therefore difficult to rely on previous weather data.

MikeB4

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#1007083 17-Mar-2014 10:06

Klipspringer:
Buzz Bumble:
gzt: Unlike you, my friend, I would be happy to settle for probability of 100% correct 10% of the time. ; ).

Unfortauntely with weather forecasts (or any other predictions for that matter), it's more like "les than 10% correct, 100% of the time". Also like most other predicitions, weather forecasts tend to be vague so they can then try to claim they were "correct" ... a bit like the silly Nostradamus "predictions" that have been "interpreted" to match lots of different events.

I think you are generalizing a bit.

Weather forecasters often get it right.

Its just that we live on 2 small islands in south Pacific ocean. Its very difficult to make predictions here in NZ as there are far more variables to conciser as opposed to Australia, Africa etc... Hence, our weather forecasters often get it wrong. Our weather is never constant, and its therefore difficult to rely on previous weather data.

also a lot of people think forecasting in like ordering fish and chips, they place and order and it's delivered. They are a prediction based of fact (the present data) and modelling (historical data) from that the put forward a probability statement. Take for instance this storm, if one took the time to view the forecast maps they divided the country into areas of probability, from memory Northland was high for high winds heavy seas and swells and high rainfall counts, the rest of the country being moderate probability and Southland low probability, that is more or less how it panned out.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

gzt

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#1007120 17-Mar-2014 10:43

Probability is difficult for a lot of people to understand.

For instance, the design management decision makers at Fukushima power station.

Buzz Bumble

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#1007533 17-Mar-2014 18:50

Klipspringer: I think you are generalizing a bit.

Weather forecasters often get it right.

They get it "right" because it's either...

A. very vague ("rain", wow that's useful - fine drizzle or pelting storms?)

B. patently obvious (sunny weather in Sumer in Hawaii? Really? Who'd a thunk it? I was thinking it would snow on the beaches.)

C. covers such a large area that it's almost bound to be right somewhere within in it ("Rain in Auckland". Well, yes, by the time the clouds have travelled across the couple of hundred kilometers or so of the "Auckland" region, it's like they will drop rain somewhere)

D. guess the same thing enough times and you'll almost certainly get it right ... eventually (This coin toss will be Heads. Nope, I'll try again.)

Its just that we live on 2 small islands in south Pacific ocean. Its very difficult to make predictions here in NZ as there are far more variables to conciser as opposed to Australia, Africa etc.

Those countries are covered under option B. above. :-)

.. Hence, our weather forecasters often get it wrong. Our weather is never constant, and its therefore difficult to rely on previous weather data.

Exactly what I said at the start - it's guessed and rarely actually correct. ;-)

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sdav

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#1007550 17-Mar-2014 19:04

Buzz Bumble:
Klipspringer: I think you are generalizing a bit.

Weather forecasters often get it right.

They get it "right" because it's either...

A. very vague ("rain", wow that's useful - fine drizzle or pelting storms?)

B. patently obvious (sunny weather in Sumer in Hawaii? Really? Who'd a thunk it? I was thinking it would snow on the beaches.)

C. covers such a large area that it's almost bound to be right somewhere within in it ("Rain in Auckland". Well, yes, by the time the clouds have travelled across the couple of hundred kilometers or so of the "Auckland" region, it's like they will drop rain somewhere)

D. guess the same thing enough times and you'll almost certainly get it right ... eventually (This coin toss will be Heads. Nope, I'll try again.)

Its just that we live on 2 small islands in south Pacific ocean. Its very difficult to make predictions here in NZ as there are far more variables to conciser as opposed to Australia, Africa etc.

Those countries are covered under option B. above. :-)

.. Hence, our weather forecasters often get it wrong. Our weather is never constant, and its therefore difficult to rely on previous weather data.

Exactly what I said at the start - it's guessed and rarely actually correct. ;-)

A: Well if it was fine drizzling they would refer to showers, which is the correct term. If it was rain, they would say rain.

C: The very fact that they cover large areas is what makes it impossible to be suburb specific.

OK, I'm going to stop picking on you now lol!

Buzz Bumble

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#1007585 17-Mar-2014 19:26

sdav: A: Well if it was fine drizzling they would refer to showers, which is the correct term. If it was rain, they would say rain.

Or, when it's in the media fine drizzle would become "Storm of century batters city". ;-)

tdgeek

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#1007678 17-Mar-2014 21:06

Buzz Bumble:
sdav: A: Well if it was fine drizzling they would refer to showers, which is the correct term. If it was rain, they would say rain.

Or, when it's in the media fine drizzle would become "Storm of century batters city". ;-)

Isnt that what happened when AKL got a tickle of snow a year or two back?

Buzz Bumble

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#1007880 18-Mar-2014 09:23

tdgeek: Isnt that what happened when AKL got a tickle of snow a year or two back?

Well, sort of. It's what happened when Auckland got what was media-hype (and people who have never seen real snow) claimed to be "snow", but wasn't really anything of the kind and never reached the ground.

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#1007888 18-Mar-2014 09:35

Buzz Bumble:

tdgeek: Isnt that what happened when AKL got a tickle of snow a year or two back?

Well, sort of. It's what happened when Auckland got what was media-hype (and people who have never seen real snow) claimed to be "snow", but wasn't really anything of the kind and never reached the ground.

That was not the Metservice that over dramatised that. The event was quite good here at our place in Wellington

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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Geektastic

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#1007955 18-Mar-2014 10:54

KiwiNZ:
Buzz Bumble:

tdgeek: Isnt that what happened when AKL got a tickle of snow a year or two back?

Well, sort of. It's what happened when Auckland got what was media-hype (and people who have never seen real snow) claimed to be "snow", but wasn't really anything of the kind and never reached the ground.

That was not the Metservice that over dramatised that. The event was quite good here at our place in Wellington

We lost power for 19 hours when that happened. I rang Meridian and asked the WTF was going on and was told we had " a massive snowstorm".

After I had stopped laughing I asked them what they thought happened in countries like Canada or Sweden every winter and that what we had was a line system unfit for purpose since we had but a few inches of snow, not a few feet combined with 100mph winds and temperatures down to minus 20 and below.

MikeB4

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#1007960 18-Mar-2014 10:57

Our infrastructure is not set up for snow, but to be fair it was a first for Wellington. But with climate change they need to be reconsidering our infrastructure design as these extreme events will become more frequent and more severe.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

Buzz Bumble

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#1008339 18-Mar-2014 19:23

KiwiNZ: That was not the Metservice that over dramatised that.

Nobody ever said it was. In fact I've said all along that it's the media who over-hype these things.

gzt

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#1008374 18-Mar-2014 20:12

Buzz Bumble:

KiwiNZ: That was not the Metservice that over dramatised that.

Nobody ever said it was. In fact I've said all along that it's the media who over-hype these things.

Yeah it would be good if somewhere in all that breathless raving the media could come up with some way of discussing probability and the demonstrated need for warnings so people can readily understand and accept any differences between forecast and actual. Maybe next time.

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