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#115569 30-Mar-2013 16:03
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so is this WWIII? North Korea declares war agaisnt South Korea - and I'm pretty sure the USA will do "all means necessary" to stop Pyongyang should words escalate to action ...




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  #789661 30-Mar-2013 16:15
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Almost certainly not. They do it annually, when the US-Sth Korea war games are on. It's no more likely to result in a war this year as any other.




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  #789663 30-Mar-2013 16:34
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  #789667 30-Mar-2013 16:47
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This escalation is more than their usual rhetoric. The does have a risk of triggering a wider conflict.




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  #789670 30-Mar-2013 17:03
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This is what happens when the 'Dear Leader' has not been put to bed after having a bottle. He gets a little grizzly and declares war on the south.

A good spanking and straight to bed with a pacifier and he should be a little happier in the morning.

China should be forced to have words with him.

Maa... so much pain and hurt in the world, and an entire nation of people forced to suffer under the grip of a mad man.

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  #789672 30-Mar-2013 17:18
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HotDogBreath: This is what happens when the 'Dear Leader' has not been put to bed after having a bottle. He gets a little grizzly and declares war on the south.

A good spanking and straight to bed with a pacifier and he should be a little happier in the morning.

China should be forced to have words with him.

Maa... so much pain and hurt in the world, and an entire nation of people forced to suffer under the grip of a mad man.
China have had words with him. Told him to bring it down a bit. Instead he ramps it up more




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  #789673 30-Mar-2013 17:20
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joker97: so is this WWIII? North Korea declares war agaisnt South Korea - and I'm pretty sure the USA will do "all means necessary" to stop Pyongyang should words escalate to action ...


They have been at war for 60 years, nothing has changed. Same threats every time they have war games.

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  #789675 30-Mar-2013 17:22
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They haven't actually declared war as technically they have been at war since the 1950'2 just under truce which has now been annulled.




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  #789679 30-Mar-2013 17:39
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SaltyNZ: Almost certainly not. They do it annually, when the US-Sth Korea war games are on. It's no more likely to result in a war this year as any other.


OIC ...




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  #789720 30-Mar-2013 19:51
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Historically though, as I recall the north pushes till it gets offered some incentive....usually in the form of food aid. Maybe the young-un thinks he can push harder than his dear old dad. Ultimately though (this year or some other) he'll push too far me thinks.

He's had the benefit of a western (european) education which one would think includes some history..... but he was young and impressionable then which dad probably pointed out when it came to re-orientating him for the local dynasty.

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  #789747 30-Mar-2013 21:06
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The current level of rehetoric IS higher than usual, and the risk of war on the penisular is higher than normal, but I wouldn't stress too much.





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  #789756 30-Mar-2013 21:19
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As above, currently He (the person as opposed to his nation) is just sabur rattling at the moment.

I'm sure a bit of code could fix this

IF he closes the industrial link with South Korea THEN we could have issues
ELSE it's just BAU

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  #789759 30-Mar-2013 21:22
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After sinking a war ship and shelling an island killing people a few years ago the level of threat is not that high really, I am sure Kim will know that he will be on the loosing end if he goes to war.

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  #789823 31-Mar-2013 08:13
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mckenndk: After sinking a war ship and shelling an island killing people a few years ago the level of threat is not that high really, I am sure Kim will know that he will be on the loosing end if he goes to war.


I disagree with both of those points.

While almost all that we see at the moment is threats and blustering the level of the threats and bluster is substantially higher than in the past. In terms of actual actions, the breaking off of most of the channels of communications between the two sides is also something not seen recently.

The entire North Korean army will now be aware that they are adopting a much more threatening posture than in the past. This increases the likelihood that an individual or small unit in the North Korean forces will start to take pot shots.

In the past, the US and South Koreans have adopted a policy of not responding to provocative acts in order to keep the peace. Considering that one of those provocative acts was the torpedoing of a South Korean ship in international waters and that almost fifty people were killed, that is a pretty high degree of restraint.

What is different this time is that the South Koreans have pledged that they will no longer restrain themselves. They are explicit that they will respond to any incident.

So, while we have not yet seen any shooting, it looks more likely than in earlier years and it looks almost certain to escalate.

For the second part, can the North Koreans really think that they have a chance against the US?

To answer that question, you need to try and see that world as the North Koreans do and not as we do. From the point of view of Kim and his generals, the US got its butt kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan - and Vietnam too. The North Korean military is much bigger and stronger than the Iraqi one and Afghanistan barely had an army at all. The North Koreans have nukes and the US were unable to use theirs in Iraq and Afghanistan so they are behind the North Koreans in that department. In fact, on North Korean analysis, the US has never actually won a war in it's entire history. WWI? The US was on the winning side but was no more than a bit part player. WWII? Again the US was on the winning side but it was the Russians that won it really. Conflicts before the 20th century? Too far in the past for the North Koreans to pay attention.

Now, I know that, to us, all of that is nonsense but it is easy to see that the North Koreans would believe it. If you think that they could not entertain such views, find a Russian and ask them who won WWII, find a Belgian and ask them the same question or find a supporter of Bin Laden and ask who was responsible for the end of communism and the Soviet Union.

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  #789838 31-Mar-2013 09:00
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jpoc:
mckenndk: After sinking a war ship and shelling an island killing people a few years ago the level of threat is not that high really, I am sure Kim will know that he will be on the loosing end if he goes to war.


I disagree with both of those points.

While almost all that we see at the moment is threats and blustering the level of the threats and bluster is substantially higher than in the past. In terms of actual actions, the breaking off of most of the channels of communications between the two sides is also something not seen recently.

The entire North Korean army will now be aware that they are adopting a much more threatening posture than in the past. This increases the likelihood that an individual or small unit in the North Korean forces will start to take pot shots.

In the past, the US and South Koreans have adopted a policy of not responding to provocative acts in order to keep the peace. Considering that one of those provocative acts was the torpedoing of a South Korean ship in international waters and that almost fifty people were killed, that is a pretty high degree of restraint.

What is different this time is that the South Koreans have pledged that they will no longer restrain themselves. They are explicit that they will respond to any incident.

So, while we have not yet seen any shooting, it looks more likely than in earlier years and it looks almost certain to escalate.

For the second part, can the North Koreans really think that they have a chance against the US?

To answer that question, you need to try and see that world as the North Koreans do and not as we do. From the point of view of Kim and his generals, the US got its butt kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan - and Vietnam too. The North Korean military is much bigger and stronger than the Iraqi one and Afghanistan barely had an army at all. The North Koreans have nukes and the US were unable to use theirs in Iraq and Afghanistan so they are behind the North Koreans in that department. In fact, on North Korean analysis, the US has never actually won a war in it's entire history. WWI? The US was on the winning side but was no more than a bit part player. WWII? Again the US was on the winning side but it was the Russians that won it really. Conflicts before the 20th century? Too far in the past for the North Koreans to pay attention.

Now, I know that, to us, all of that is nonsense but it is easy to see that the North Koreans would believe it. If you think that they could not entertain such views, find a Russian and ask them who won WWII, find a Belgian and ask them the same question or find a supporter of Bin Laden and ask who was responsible for the end of communism and the Soviet Union.


I don't agree about WWII. The Russians didn't participate in the pacific and in Europe it would only have been a matter of time.

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  #789840 31-Mar-2013 09:11
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jpoc: 

While almost all that we see at the moment is threats and blustering the level of the threats and bluster is substantially higher than in the past. In terms of actual actions, the breaking off of most of the channels of communications between the two sides is also something not seen recently.



They are for sure talking the talk, and I don't rule out the possibility that things will get out of control (obligatory Hunt for Red October screenshot here) but still... They haven't done anything in the last couple of weeks that they haven't done before, many times.

The South Korean government might be talking tough about not restraining themselves, but they have far more to lose than North Korea if another war breaks out. Along the same lines, there is a joint industrial complex on the NK side which is by all accounts where NK makes most of its hard currency. They have not shut this down. If they were about to start a war, you would think that they would.

The talk about missile attacks is entirely theoretical. Their success rate at getting big rockets to fly is currently one in three; nowhere near high enough you'd risk putting one of your very few bombs on the end, even if they were small enough to fit. And it's one thing to have a rocket that can fly 1,000 miles, but quite another to have a rocket that can fly 1,000 miles and land on a dot 100m wide. Even the experts at that game took decades to get it right. (Yes, you *do* still need to be accurate, even with a nuke on the end).

If there is going to be a war it will be because someone further down the chain does something dumb, and it all escalates from there. Not because Kim Jong Un orders the end of the world. But given the stakes, I expect the US/Sth Koreans to be *very* careful not to let that happen.




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