Geekzone: technology news, blogs, forums
Guest
Welcome Guest.
You haven't logged in yet. If you don't have an account you can register now.


4443 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 840

Trusted
Lifetime subscriber

Topic # 152213 19-Sep-2014 20:35
Send private message

Predict the election result #2014.
Rules:
No discussion on policy etc.
You're welcome to post more than 1.


My prediction:

National 42
Labour 30
Green 12
NZ first 8
Conservative 4.8
Mana Internet 3 (Hone lost)
Maori 0.5
Act 0.1
UF 0.1

Government: Labour + Green + NZ first





View this topic in a long page with up to 500 replies per page Create new topic
 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6
534 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 114


  Reply # 1132381 19-Sep-2014 20:43
Send private message

1. Me




Home ADSL:                                                             School: 
 


2659 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 374

Trusted

  Reply # 1132389 19-Sep-2014 20:52
Send private message

National - 48
Labour - 22
Greens - 15
NZ First - 8
Conservative - 4.9
Internet Mana - 1.5
ACT - 0.3
UF - 0.3






4443 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 840

Trusted
Lifetime subscriber

  Reply # 1132395 19-Sep-2014 21:08
Send private message

My second prediction (if Hone wins)

Government: National + NZ first + ACT + UF + Maori





5960 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1793

Trusted

  Reply # 1132398 19-Sep-2014 21:19
4 people support this post
Send private message

Hone and kdc should be thrown out.

I was going to say hung but that's mean.




 


2659 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 374

Trusted

  Reply # 1132399 19-Sep-2014 21:21
One person supports this post
Send private message

Other thing to consider if a govt can't be formed then back to the polls we go

574 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 216


  Reply # 1132403 19-Sep-2014 21:33
One person supports this post
Send private message

TimA: Hone and kdc should be thrown out.

I was going to say hung but that's mean.


Do you by any chance happen to be a part of Young Nats?







2421 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 820

Trusted
Lifetime subscriber

  Reply # 1132404 19-Sep-2014 21:33
One person supports this post
Send private message

National - 45
Labour - 23
Greens - 16
NZ First - 10
Conservative - 4.6
Internet Mana - 1.1 (but Hone doesn't win Te Tai Tokerau)
ACT - 0.2
UF - 0.1 (And Dunne doesn't win Ohariu)

And then we wait 2 weeks for Winston to make his mind up and he will be deputy or finance minister but claim he doesn't want the baubles of office. But I am not sure which party he goes with.





574 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 216


  Reply # 1132405 19-Sep-2014 21:35
Send private message

BarTender: National - 45
Labour - 23
Greens - 16
NZ First - 10
Conservative - 4.6
Internet Mana - 1.1
ACT - 0.2
UF - 0.1

And then we wait 2 weeks for Winston to make his mind up and he will be deputy or finance minister but claim he doesn't want the baubles of office. But I am not sure which party he goes with.


Winston would not get finance minister if he went with National and I doubt Labour would allow it either.







534 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 114


  Reply # 1132406 19-Sep-2014 21:36
6 people support this post
Send private message

National - 100
Labour - 0
Greens - 0
NZ First - 0
Conservative - 0
Internet Mana - 0
ACT - 0
UF - 0




Home ADSL:                                                             School: 
 


2833 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 479


  Reply # 1132407 19-Sep-2014 21:38
One person supports this post
Send private message

Rather than predict percentages you need to predict the number of seats that will be won. Remember unless a party breaks the 5% barrier they need to get a candidate elected before they get any representation in parliament.

That means the likes of the Conservatives and Internet Mana are quite likely to miss out on having any seats.

My predictions on seat numbers are based on recent polls and currently elected parties and their number of elected members.

National .  58
Labour. .   31
Greens. .  14
NZ First..  11
Maori.   .    3
U Future.    1
Act.            1

That leaves one seat in the balance

I see the next government being led by John Key. He can do it with the partners they have now. 

David Cunliffe needs an unhappy alliance of both the Greens and NZ First as well as the Maori party plus the one seat I haven't allocated just to get to 60 seats. You need 61 to govern.

Also I suspect that  NZ First would support the party with the most votes.




Sony Xperia X running Sailfish
Jolla C
Nokia N1
Dell Inspiron 14z i5


908 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 595

Trusted

  Reply # 1132409 19-Sep-2014 21:41
3 people support this post
Send private message

dcole13: National - 100
Labour - 0
Greens - 0
NZ First - 0
Conservative - 0
Internet Mana - 0
ACT - 0
UF - 0



You got it all wrong.

The civillian party are going to be getting 100%

534 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 114


  Reply # 1132412 19-Sep-2014 21:42
Send private message

Andib:
dcole13: National - 100
Labour - 0
Greens - 0
NZ First - 0
Conservative - 0
Internet Mana - 0
ACT - 0
UF - 0



You got it all wrong.

The civillian party are going to be getting 100%


Hm, are Black Power in? I like ALCP tho.




Home ADSL:                                                             School: 
 




4443 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 840

Trusted
Lifetime subscriber

  Reply # 1132413 19-Sep-2014 21:44
Send private message

1. If Conservative is above 5%, NZ first is out of the equation.

2. I have to say a number of people I knew surprisingly went for Conservative. My gut feeling is they will be close to 5%, but does not reach the threshold.

3. I believe if Hone wins, Labour has better chance to form the government.

4. After what John Key did to Winston in 2008 - I am not sure if Winston will pick National. Winston is however unpredictable, so we will see what pans out.





2107 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 527


  Reply # 1132414 19-Sep-2014 21:45
Send private message

I think InternetMana will get 5%

 

Dunno about national or labour though.



4443 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 840

Trusted
Lifetime subscriber

  Reply # 1132416 19-Sep-2014 21:47
Send private message

DjShadow: Other thing to consider if a govt can't be formed then back to the polls we go


And make that day a Public Holiday? tongue-out





 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6
View this topic in a long page with up to 500 replies per page Create new topic

Twitter »

Follow us to receive Twitter updates when new discussions are posted in our forums:



Follow us to receive Twitter updates when news items and blogs are posted in our frontpage:



Follow us to receive Twitter updates when tech item prices are listed in our price comparison site:



Geekzone Live »

Try automatic live updates from Geekzone directly in your browser, without refreshing the page, with Geekzone Live now.



Are you subscribed to our RSS feed? You can download the latest headlines and summaries from our stories directly to your computer or smartphone by using a feed reader.

Alternatively, you can receive a daily email with Geekzone updates.