Predict E(l)ection 2014 & win

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nakedmolerat

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#152213 19-Sep-2014 20:35

Predict the election result #2014.
Rules:
No discussion on policy etc.
You're welcome to post more than 1.

My prediction:

National 42
Labour 30
Green 12
NZ first 8
Conservative 4.8
Mana Internet 3 (Hone lost)
Maori 0.5
Act 0.1
UF 0.1

Government: Labour + Green + NZ first

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6

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#1132381 19-Sep-2014 20:43

1. Me

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DjShadow

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#1132389 19-Sep-2014 20:52

National - 48
Labour - 22
Greens - 15
NZ First - 8
Conservative - 4.9
Internet Mana - 1.5
ACT - 0.3
UF - 0.3

nakedmolerat

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#1132395 19-Sep-2014 21:08

My second prediction (if Hone wins)

Government: National + NZ first + ACT + UF + Maori

Coil

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#1132398 19-Sep-2014 21:19

Hone and kdc should be thrown out.

I was going to say hung but that's mean.

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#1132399 19-Sep-2014 21:21

Other thing to consider if a govt can't be formed then back to the polls we go

solaybro

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#1132403 19-Sep-2014 21:33

TimA: Hone and kdc should be thrown out.

I was going to say hung but that's mean.

Do you by any chance happen to be a part of Young Nats?

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BarTender

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#1132404 19-Sep-2014 21:33

National - 45
Labour - 23
Greens - 16
NZ First - 10
Conservative - 4.6
Internet Mana - 1.1 (but Hone doesn't win Te Tai Tokerau)
ACT - 0.2
UF - 0.1 (And Dunne doesn't win Ohariu)

And then we wait 2 weeks for Winston to make his mind up and he will be deputy or finance minister but claim he doesn't want the baubles of office. But I am not sure which party he goes with.

solaybro

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#1132405 19-Sep-2014 21:35

BarTender: National - 45
Labour - 23
Greens - 16
NZ First - 10
Conservative - 4.6
Internet Mana - 1.1
ACT - 0.2
UF - 0.1

And then we wait 2 weeks for Winston to make his mind up and he will be deputy or finance minister but claim he doesn't want the baubles of office. But I am not sure which party he goes with.

Winston would not get finance minister if he went with National and I doubt Labour would allow it either.

dcole13

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#1132406 19-Sep-2014 21:36

National - 100
Labour - 0
Greens - 0
NZ First - 0
Conservative - 0
Internet Mana - 0
ACT - 0
UF - 0

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Technofreak

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#1132407 19-Sep-2014 21:38

Rather than predict percentages you need to predict the number of seats that will be won. Remember unless a party breaks the 5% barrier they need to get a candidate elected before they get any representation in parliament.

That means the likes of the Conservatives and Internet Mana are quite likely to miss out on having any seats.

My predictions on seat numbers are based on recent polls and currently elected parties and their number of elected members.

National . 58
Labour. . 31
Greens. . 14
NZ First.. 11
Maori. . 3
U Future. 1
Act. 1

That leaves one seat in the balance

I see the next government being led by John Key. He can do it with the partners they have now.

David Cunliffe needs an unhappy alliance of both the Greens and NZ First as well as the Maori party plus the one seat I haven't allocated just to get to 60 seats. You need 61 to govern.

Also I suspect that NZ First would support the party with the most votes.

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Andib

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#1132409 19-Sep-2014 21:41

dcole13: National - 100
Labour - 0
Greens - 0
NZ First - 0
Conservative - 0
Internet Mana - 0
ACT - 0
UF - 0

You got it all wrong.

The civillian party are going to be getting 100%

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dcole13

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#1132412 19-Sep-2014 21:42

Andib:
dcole13: National - 100
Labour - 0
Greens - 0
NZ First - 0
Conservative - 0
Internet Mana - 0
ACT - 0
UF - 0

You got it all wrong.

The civillian party are going to be getting 100%

Hm, are Black Power in? I like ALCP tho.

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nakedmolerat

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#1132413 19-Sep-2014 21:44

1. If Conservative is above 5%, NZ first is out of the equation.

2. I have to say a number of people I knew surprisingly went for Conservative. My gut feeling is they will be close to 5%, but does not reach the threshold.

3. I believe if Hone wins, Labour has better chance to form the government.

4. After what John Key did to Winston in 2008 - I am not sure if Winston will pick National. Winston is however unpredictable, so we will see what pans out.