fibre rollout

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#2159920 13-Jan-2019 08:56

ajw:

Post 2020 mass unbundling will commence.

By who? And how will they fund it? Talk is cheap - so don't just quote me the Vocus / VF announcement again.

Even Spark are highly unlikely to go down the bath of unbundling because even they see the economics don't stack up much like it didn't really stack up in the copper world unless you were likely the providers who did and simply cherry picked areas where they could pick up customers off exchange footprints.

Spark's strategy is one of FWA for lower use users and wholesale UFB for everybody else, and I see VF making slow progress towards this as well.

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#2160545 13-Jan-2019 20:28

sbiddle:

ajw:

Post 2020 mass unbundling will commence.

By who? And how will they fund it? Talk is cheap - so don't just quote me the Vocus / VF announcement again.

Even Spark are highly unlikely to go down the bath of unbundling because even they see the economics don't stack up much like it didn't really stack up in the copper world unless you were likely the providers who did and simply cherry picked areas where they could pick up customers off exchange footprints.

Spark's strategy is one of FWA for lower use users and wholesale UFB for everybody else, and I see VF making slow progress towards this as well.

There are multiple catches with UFB unbundling

- Chorus are required to be able to offer unbundled UFB by 2020 but can set the price, I think ComCom can decide if they want to regulated post 2022.

- UFB is done by FFP, so it isn't a whole exchange area, it is a set block of maybe 200-ish properties. Vocus and Vodafone have about 40% market share, based on the latest stats (and each year it is shrinking along with Spark to the smaller ISPs). I would also say most wholesale customers they have currently will go direct with Chorus as they plan to roll out UFB tail extension nationwide. Meaning any ISP can have 1 handover for the whole country (Chorus UFB area only - still need handovers with other LFC areas). Currently for Chorus UFB you need 5 and the backhaul between them but later this year it will just be 1. Which is were all these wholesales come in.

To do UFB unbundling you also need to buy colo space in the exchange, power and backhaul from Chorus (backhaul could also be from another provider if they have fibre in the exchange) and the hardware for PON.

Vocus sure don't have the money, Vocus AU wanted to sell Vocus NZ to fund there stuff in oz but none of the offers even came close so they didn't end up selling. That to me says that no one thinks they can make much money in NZ internet any longer.

Vodafone are looking at there IPO, and they have a very expensive 5G network to roll out at some stage and they can't use Huawei (I am not sure if they would have if they could)

Aredwood

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#2160742 14-Jan-2019 09:17

And the big problem for an ISP with unbundling - They will have to pay for a Tech to visit each customers house to install a new ONT. Will they be allowed to remove the Chorus ONT or will it have to remain? As removing the Chorus ONT will be a method for the ISP to to achieve customer lock in. So the commerce commission might require that the LFC owned ONT must be left connected and working.

When ADSL was unbundled, at most the ISP only had to courier a new modem to the customer.

sbiddle

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#2160773 14-Jan-2019 10:31

Aredwood: And the big problem for an ISP with unbundling - They will have to pay for a Tech to visit each customers house to install a new ONT. Will they be allowed to remove the Chorus ONT or will it have to remain? As removing the Chorus ONT will be a method for the ISP to to achieve customer lock in. So the commerce commission might require that the LFC owned ONT must be left connected and working.

When ADSL was unbundled, at most the ISP only had to courier a new modem to the customer.

Chorus ONT stays under their proposal - the 2nd fibre at the ETP is patched through to the ITP and a the new SP ONT installed.

jhsol

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#2161927 16-Jan-2019 11:33

Sparks strategy is 5G. Once 5g is in the country Spark will be able to provide Fibre speeds (if not faster) and capacity to end users and be able to claim 100% of the bill rather than having a portion of it going to Chorus.

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#2161929 16-Jan-2019 11:46

jhsol:

Sparks strategy is 5G. Once 5g is in the country Spark will be able to provide Fibre speeds (if not faster) and capacity to end users and be able to claim 100% of the bill rather than having a portion of it going to Chorus.

Faster then Fibre! I don't think so Fibre will always be king over Wireless solutions

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jhsol

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#2161995 16-Jan-2019 13:52

Linux:

jhsol:

Sparks strategy is 5G. Once 5g is in the country Spark will be able to provide Fibre speeds (if not faster) and capacity to end users and be able to claim 100% of the bill rather than having a portion of it going to Chorus.

Faster then Fibre! I don't think so Fibre will always be king over Wireless solutions

John

Sorry, i couldnt tell if you were serious or not. Real world testing of 5G has shown speeds of between 1 and 10Gbps with averages of 2.8Gbps most common. Latency is a theoretical 1ms but until 5G becomes mainstream no one really knows for sure. 4G has latency of 50ms.

Needless to say, 5G is going to compete with home broadband fibre solutions in NZ. Especially if it is shown with speeds faster than 1Gbps and latency 10ms or less as well as matching or beating UFB price points. UFB will always be a fixed price because chorus/govt stipulate the price for resellers. With 5G Spark will control the price from start to finish.

TLDR; Fibre will have competition in 2020 :-)

For more information feel free to read up on

sbiddle

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#2162000 16-Jan-2019 14:07

jhsol:

Sorry, i couldnt tell if you were serious or not. Real world testing of 5G has shown speeds of between 1 and 10Gbps with averages of 2.8Gbps most common.

Yeah nah.

Speeds depend entirely on the amount of spectrum available. If you're going to use the words "real world" you really need some evidence to back that up "real world" is not operator testing in closed trials using massive amounts of spectrum they will never have come launch.

The only real world networks now are the pre 5G (remembering they're not the final 5G spec) US mmWave networks for FWA services that are delivering real world speeds to customers of around 300Mbps - 500Mbps. Verizon pledge the service can deliver up to 1Gbps (which is contended) and demonstated hitting 900Mbps at CES.

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#2162003 16-Jan-2019 14:13

so actual users speeds will be well less than that as has been proven with 4G.

they are just trailing 10GPON fibre at the moment which is 10Gig, not theoretically it is, and has a very low latency

at the moment and in the near future fixed line services will still trump wireless

alasta

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#2162009 16-Jan-2019 14:23

I agree that fibre will always be better than 5G, but I do think that the real world performance of the latter will be more than adequate for many households. I live on my own and for me even 4G FWA is good enough for my needs.

jhsol

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#2162025 16-Jan-2019 14:50

sbiddle:

jhsol:

Sorry, i couldnt tell if you were serious or not. Real world testing of 5G has shown speeds of between 1 and 10Gbps with averages of 2.8Gbps most common.

Yeah nah.

Speeds depend entirely on the amount of spectrum available. If you're going to use the words "real world" you really need some evidence to back that up "real world" is not operator testing in closed trials using massive amounts of spectrum they will never have come launch.

The only real world networks now are the pre 5G (remembering they're not the final 5G spec) US mmWave networks for FWA services that are delivering real world speeds to customers of around 300Mbps - 500Mbps. Verizon pledge the service can deliver up to 1Gbps (which is contended) and demonstated hitting 900Mbps at CES.

Apologies, the "real world testing" sentence could have been phrased better. I thought it might have been clear from the rest of my paragraph that it was purely in a testing phase however I was definitely implying that 5G is only in testing phases, and we wont really know what its going to be like in "real world" scenarios.

Surely what we can all agree on is that it is currently (even at your agreed speeds of 300-500Mbps) beating the 100Mb UFB plans. If Spark can bring this to market and price it at lower than the 100MB UFB plans whilst still making a profit then thats all Spark needs to do. That was the point I was trying to make. IF (and once again only IF) Spark can bring UFB speeds for the same as (or lower than) UFB prices then we all win. Spark gets 100% of the profits, and us as the end consumer get valid competition.

What I disagree on (with the majority of responses here anyways) is that fibre will always be king (i think the original quote is cable is king but I get what you mean lol). Cable is now just too costly to maintain going forward.

I predict in the next 5 years Wireless will be greater than wired, especially when cost is factored in.

EDIT

Unless you are specifically talking about Fibre the technology instead of UFB. I am specifically speaking about Fibre from a UFB perspective that us consumers get for internet @ home (ie 100Mb, 200Mb, 1Gb) and comparign that to 5g that us consumers will (hopefully) get.

But if you are arguing over Fibre as in the technology (ie that connects the country's internet, connects servers up to storage systems) then yes, you are all correct. Wireless will not win on that race.

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quickymart

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#2162055 16-Jan-2019 16:01

Plus data caps on wireless will always be lower.

Tracer

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#2162325 16-Jan-2019 21:45

jhsol:

Unless you are specifically talking about Fibre the technology instead of UFB. I am specifically speaking about Fibre from a UFB perspective that us consumers get for internet @ home (ie 100Mb, 200Mb, 1Gb) and comparign that to 5g that us consumers will (hopefully) get.

Since we're talking about things from the future here, 10 Gb fibre service will be available at home sooner than 5G wireless service, and without the data caps.

Talkiet

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#2162330 16-Jan-2019 21:53

Shall we talk about bandwidth delay product then? I mean if we're going to talk about 10Gbps access links it might be useful to know just how much utility we could extract from them ...

Cheers - N

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#2162334 16-Jan-2019 21:58

jhsol:
Linux:

jhsol:

Sparks strategy is 5G. Once 5g is in the country Spark will be able to provide Fibre speeds (if not faster) and capacity to end users and be able to claim 100% of the bill rather than having a portion of it going to Chorus.

Faster then Fibre! I don't think so Fibre will always be king over Wireless solutions

John

Sorry, i couldnt tell if you were serious or not. Real world testing of 5G has shown speeds of between 1 and 10Gbps with averages of 2.8Gbps most common. Latency is a theoretical 1ms but until 5G becomes mainstream no one really knows for sure. 4G has latency of 50ms.

Needless to say, 5G is going to compete with home broadband fibre solutions in NZ. Especially if it is shown with speeds faster than 1Gbps and latency 10ms or less as well as matching or beating UFB price points. UFB will always be a fixed price because chorus/govt stipulate the price for resellers. With 5G Spark will control the price from start to finish.

TLDR; Fibre will have competition in 2020 :-)

For more information feel free to read up on

https://5g.co.uk/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5G

I am 100% serious and anyone that thinks any different is wrong

Fibre will be king end of capacity end of story

John

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