fibre rollout

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#2162336 16-Jan-2019 22:06

Linux:

I am 100% serious and anyone that thinks any different is wrong

Fibre will be king end of capacity end of story

John

As Chester's old grand daddy used to say, "The less a man makes declarative statements, the less apt he is to look foolish in retrospect."

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I work in the industry and _I_ wouldn't feel comfortable making that statement given the pace of change.

I fondly remember copper being totally maxxed out at 2400, then 4800, then 9600, the 19200, then 33.6, then 56, then ADSL, then ADSL2, then VDSL, then VDSL with special sauce... We now have 100Mbps in real world over copper pairs that were never intended to support more than voice.

Please note all comments are from my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.

gorringS

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#2162342 16-Jan-2019 22:33

I agree with John , Fibre has no ceiling far as speed goes it purely controlled by what LLC have allocated within in there cabinets. Most cabinets across the country presently restricted to a thoughput of 2.5gb bits per second however some cabinet are now getting that limitation increase to 10 gig bits to allow for multi subscribers to have gig bit connection and retain full speed . This scenario will be stepping ground for faster plans that on the horizon to be launch. Presently one big issues is lack of 10gig bit routers and ONT availability at a realistic cost . Im sure by 2020 when 5g is proclaim be launch his issue be solved. Modern AMD mother boards are now shipping with 10gig LAN on board so it only matter of time and LLC will produce 10gig bit plans. Me personally I have 2 1 gigbit connection running of single ONT with revamp port on cabinet with 5gigbit max connection meaning they can still allocate usual number other subscribers without me been effected in any fashion.

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#2162436 17-Jan-2019 10:06

Talkiet:

As Chester's old grand daddy used to say, "The less a man makes declarative statements, the less apt he is to look foolish in retrospect."

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I work in the industry and _I_ wouldn't feel comfortable making that statement given the pace of change.

I fondly remember copper being totally maxxed out at 2400, then 4800, then 9600, the 19200, then 33.6, then 56, then ADSL, then ADSL2, then VDSL, then VDSL with special sauce... We now have 100Mbps in real world over copper pairs that were never intended to support more than voice.

N.

Just glad someone can see what Im trying to say. Glad someone can respect an opinion and still provide a different one without being a megalomaniac.

Linux:
I am 100% serious and anyone that thinks any different is wrong
John

Wow, I despise people like you.

I currently predict that cost will be the biggest limiting factor in 10G becoming mainstream. I base my opinion on the growth of wireless technology vs the growth of desktop cabling over the last 10-15 years and balance it against the cost of this technology and judge it by how mainstream it has become.

From a business perspect, every time i needed to liven up a new site for the business i used to have to go through the lengthy process of ordering a fibre install and then cabling out the place weeks in advance. Now with a 4G router, SDWan and a couple of APs I can now have the site up and running in less than a day. Performance meets all requirements and end users are non the wiser.

From a home perspective you may get some niche min/max IT people that opt for cabling Cat6 throughout their house, but for the majority of NZ, wireless will be the default distribution of data in homes. Wireless technologies already match GB speeds (AC1200 or higher) and the technology is readily available in stores. Its also easy enough for a non technical person to purchase and install. 10GB cabling (and the hardware required) is currently prohibited by cost.

Take a look around at the technology in your house. Everything is wireless by default these days. A family with teenagers now have a laptop each, a mobile phone each. TVs are wireless, printers are wireless, hell even fridges and light bulbs are wireless. This is what I base my prediction on and why I believe wireless will overtake cable in the home. I predict that eSims will become standard in devices and you wont even bother with a home router anymore. Devices will just connect straight to the internet directly. All you will need to do is register your devices with your ISP and it will handle Everything will be in the cloud so you wont even need home storage anymore.

Technology so far is showing that wireless technologies are improving so much that people are going wireless over wired and which is why I stand by my original statement.

jhsol: 5G is going to compete with home broadband fibre solutions in NZ. Especially if it is shown with speeds faster than 1Gbps and latency 10ms or less as well as matching or beating UFB price points.

Edit

Last post from me (on this thread anyway). Ive said my piece, I could be wrong, but thats the whole point of an opinion piece. Im not telling anyone to rely on my opinion, I just wanted to express my opinion and how I see the future unfolding.

gorringS

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#2162457 17-Jan-2019 10:39

I dispise idiots l that simply don't know fact . Southern cross cable that feeds New Zealand with internet is fibre . So why would one think wireless is going achieve something that fibre is proven be best option. In order for 5g network to work what feeds that hmm fibre. Sadly that one thing you missing with comments you making. Yes yet another to thing consider the ultra low data caps they give on wireless plans that cost more that fibre plans because they feed by the mobile networks . I would use total data in less than 2 hrs on any given day. So yes John is correct fibre will always be best option for data/latency.

Talkiet

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#2162458 17-Jan-2019 10:43

gorringS:

I dispise idiots l that simply don't know fact . Southern cross cable that feeds New Zealand with internet is fibre . So why would one think wireless is going achieve something that fibre is proven be best option. In order for 5g network to work what feeds that hmm fibre. Sadly that one thing you missing with comments you making. Yes yet another to thing consider the ultra low data caps they give on wireless plans that cost more that fibre plans because they feed by the mobile networks . I would use total data in less than 2 hrs on any given day. So yes John is correct fibre will always be best option for data/latency.

My food is delivered to the supermarket by a large truck, so why would anyone think a 2008 Corolla is going to achieve something where a large articulated lorry is proven to be the best option?

I'm all for educated discourse, but you're doing the latter without the benefit of the former.

Cheers - N

Please note all comments are from my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.

BarTender

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#2162462 17-Jan-2019 10:57

I love this thread... These last two pages have cracked me up.

Personally I would be very surprised if Wireless overtook Fixed for heavy users. Sure it may become the standard for smaller / lightweight users and wireless datacaps will slowly creep up.

But I can't see a day that Unlimited Wireless plans become commonplace. When customers are shifting 40TB+ per month over fixed I can't see anytime soon that would be realistically an option over wireless due to the real-world limitations on spectrum.

Having worked with @talkiet and knowing the total and peak numbers across both mobile and fixed, and when Spark mobile had ~2.5M customers as per their annual report yet didn't even come close to hitting 5% of the data consumption at peak or daily average of Fixed at 700k customers I think there is a long way to go.

Sure mobile technologies are improving capacity but there is a real world spectrum capacity limits on mobile that just aren't there on Fixed.

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Chorusnz

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#2162468 17-Jan-2019 11:02

From a Chorus point of view when looking at all of the things you want out of network performance fibre will remain top dog. 5g will be awesome for its ability to be used in places where fixed networks can't reach. We'll know a lot more about 10gpon once trials go live https://sp.chorus.co.nz/sites/default/files/files/10GPON%20trial%20infographics.pdf ^DR

Talkiet

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#2162470 17-Jan-2019 11:03

BarTender:

I love this thread... These last two pages have cracked me up.

Personally I would be very surprised if Wireless overtook Fixed for heavy users. Sure it may become the standard for smaller / lightweight users and wireless datacaps will slowly creep up.

But I can't see a day that Unlimited Wireless plans become commonplace. When customers are shifting 40TB+ per month over fixed I can't see anytime soon that would be realistically an option over wireless due to the real-world limitations on spectrum.

Having worked with @talkiet and knowing the total and peak numbers across both mobile and fixed, and when Spark mobile had ~2.5M customers as per their annual report yet didn't even come close to hitting 5% of the data consumption at peak or daily average of Fixed at 700k customers I think there is a long way to go.

Sure mobile technologies are improving capacity but there is a real world spectrum capacity limits on mobile that just aren't there on Fixed.

If you're going to bring logic, experience, relevant information and a clear style of balanced presentation into this then I suggest you just get out now!11!one!

We don't need that rubbish around here :-)

I should note that I intrinsically agree with you, and that I don't think wireless will take over for everyone or all use cases - but I genuinely believe it has a very very good chance of becoming an access option that would suit most users, and we all know that the install experience is light years ahead of any option where contractors have to come and dig up your drive or trample your petunias.

However, Anyone putting forward a one sided argument with bad or no logic, and without the benefit of relevant experience, especially when put in such a forthright manner, they only harm their own message.

Cheers - N

Please note all comments are from my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.

BarTender

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#2162673 17-Jan-2019 17:31

Talkiet: If you're going to bring logic, experience, relevant information and a clear style of balanced presentation into this then I suggest you just get out now!11!one!

We don't need that rubbish around here :-)

I should note that I intrinsically agree with you, and that I don't think wireless will take over for everyone or all use cases - but I genuinely believe it has a very very good chance of becoming an access option that would suit most users, and we all know that the install experience is light years ahead of any option where contractors have to come and dig up your drive or trample your petunias.

However, Anyone putting forward a one sided argument with bad or no logic, and without the benefit of relevant experience, especially when put in such a forthright manner, they only harm their own message.

So really all we are arguing about is what will ultimately be the split between Fixed (UFB) and Wireless customers over the Mobile network. You say above 50% and I say over 30% tell 'em ya dreaming mate.

Since usage is doubling year on year and yes 5G is coming but there is only a certain amount of data that will be able to be squeezed into the same spectrum and the return on investment from deploying more and more microcell leads to diminishing returns.

The same constraints on spectrum don't (really) exist on fibre and faster and faster technology is coming out on Fibre.

Lastly I think that broadband consumption may start to plateau sometime in the next 5 years or so. The UFB rollout will be complete and those that want to move to UFB would have already done it and those that don't can get moved to Wireless off copper as they would typically be sub 100GB per month users anyway. Yes the outliers will always be sucking 40+TB a month but with diminishing returns on 4K vs 8K picture quality and most people already being on UFB who want to be on it and Netflix and Youtube doing an ever improving job of compressing video more effectively I think it will flatten out and a bottom percentage of users will be moved to Wireless where it's cost effective to not pay the wholesale input.

snnet

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#2162681 17-Jan-2019 17:58

I'm just amazed at the movement of 40TB by people, I can't imagine what they're doing with all that data (is it month after month?)

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#2162682 17-Jan-2019 17:59

snnet:

I'm just amazed at the movement of 40TB by people, I can't imagine what they're doing with all that data (is it month after month?)

Sorry... i have too many cat pictures to move around every month...

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Talkiet

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#2162683 17-Jan-2019 18:04

snnet:

I'm just amazed at the movement of 40TB by people, I can't imagine what they're doing with all that data (is it month after month?)

No, they simply have RSS feeds from torrent sites setup to download everything, seed to a certain ratio and then delete... I did the math at some point, even assuming watching 24 hours a day and 16Mbps average bitrate, it would take well over 7 months to watch what they download in a month...

Cheers - N

Please note all comments are from my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.

snnet

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#2162690 17-Jan-2019 18:33

Talkiet:

snnet:

I'm just amazed at the movement of 40TB by people, I can't imagine what they're doing with all that data (is it month after month?)

No, they simply have RSS feeds from torrent sites setup to download everything, seed to a certain ratio and then delete... I did the math at some point, even assuming watching 24 hours a day and 16Mbps average bitrate, it would take well over 7 months to watch what they download in a month...

Cheers - N

That's all it could be, right?! Totally absurd to be moving that kind of data for anything else really. I like hio's explanation too, maybe I could follow suit

Does that "new" copyright law not come into play here? or maybe they're using VPN to hide a bit.. must be a good service if that's the case to keep the bandwidth up

daringpeter

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#2429375 29-Feb-2020 19:27

Hi Guys

I have posted here before for advice on why I should abandon copper for a fibre installation. The general opinion was that ADSL plus Flip's (legacy) plan was cheap and I may as well stick with it....until Chorus create trouble.

Now, I live on a cross-leased section, with the usual RoW. I own both properties. The tenant doesn't want to leave ADSL, like me, she is a pensioner. But perhaps sooner, rather than later, because because Chorus are trying to abandon the copper network by putting prices up, or because I have become obsessed with data, I may have to connect to fibre (runs past my boundary).

It is hard to get anything other than formulaic help ('read our FAQ'). It has many times struck me that I should be able to get the 'free' (paid for by the taxpayer) fibre installation done to maybe the ONT, and left until I request a working electronic connection. Why not? Obviously, the Crown Fibre people can't claim another connection, and maybe Chorus can't get a fee from the ISP (or the taxpayer?) until I want a connection (other than a physical one). But why not? My solution for the tenant would be to get the connection installed, and leave her (and me) with the current copper until we want to move from copper. Does anyone here know why any ISP needs to be involved? Why can't Chorus get paid for the installation without the ISP? Any experience with this sort of situation? Or maybe a good contact in Crown Infrastructure?

Peter

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#2429385 29-Feb-2020 20:07

Because your provider still pays for the install. 95% if providers credit this.

Now a preinstall may be an option for you, but chorus typically target areas for that.

Given how the landscape has changed you may find fibre cheaper.

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