2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2435007 9-Mar-2020 13:37

frankv:
wellygary:

Well here is an interesting outcome of CoVid-19...

After Russia and Saudi Arabia couldn't agree on production reductions to support the price of oil last week, there is now an all out oil war between them and the price of crude fell 20% this morning after a 10% fall on Friday as Saudi said they would pump MORE.....

As at 11am NZD Brent is at $35/bbl and WTI at $32/bbl

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html

I don't see how this is related to covid-19. Unless self isolation has reduced transport demand and therefore oil demand.

Yes that is the reason quoted in the media. Cars in Asia, and global air travel is probably 90% of it, if not all of it

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#2435017 9-Mar-2020 13:50

Italy as at Saturday has 7375 cases, 366 deaths, literally almost one tenth of the global number,s just like that. And 133 of those the day before. 25% of Italy is locked down. It seems like just days ago they has 5 cases. Yes, Italy is much more densely populated than NZ, but look what can happen when it is allowed to get out of control. 5 cases is nothing, 25 is nothing, but if it blows out, thats too many to manage so you can't/don't manage it, even though you want to. No idea what the EU will do, or the US, they lack management capability

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#2435018 9-Mar-2020 13:55

dafman:

I'm booked for three days travel in Aussie in a couple of days. The pragmatist in me says travel to Aus is no different than domestic travel, and in a month or so it will be well and truly out in our local community (probably is now), so life should proceed as per normal. The other part of me is wondering if should stay put?

Is there any indication that that is the case, or it is going to occur? . If the people managing this believe that is likely, even though they have said it is unlikely that we will have widespread community transmissions, why wouldn't they be shutting down the borders now, and preventing travel, like they have in China? The WHO has already said that countries must not allow this to spread within communities. It causes far too many people to need hospitalization, and it kills too many, and that is avoidable.The NZ health system would never be able to cope as we don't have the ICU beds. The problem is time, and not reacting in time, or not nipping it in the bud fast enough. The problem with this particular virus, is the long incubation period before you can shown symptoms, and it spreads silently. If we went to the extreme, we could have closed our borders of incoming people, and not had any cases at all, and no risk of it spreading. The next step was to do what Samoa has done, which is restricting travel from all countries with cases, and not allowing cruise ships to dock. But when they have other things to consider such as the economy etc, but what happens in the economy is largely dictated by how this spreads overseas. We should be learning from the mistakes other countries have made, and the success China has had, as we do have the benefit of being a few weeks behind in time. There does appear to be a lot of misinformation and fake news out there, a lot to do with people not understanding the numbers.

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#2435024 9-Mar-2020 14:06

GV27:

From the RNZ discussion this morning, I think they weren't envisioning all the retired personnel being front-line - more things like helping GP clinics/Healthline with phone evaluations and identifying testing candidates.

The thing is if you are older, would you want to put yourself in that position, even if not frontline, when you are at a far higher risk of dying from it than a younger doctor. Historically a lot of doctors do end dying during epidemics. I went to a historic house at the weekend that was used to treat people during the 1918 flue epidemic, and the house owner who was a doctor died during that. Obviously they didn't have the knowledge and resources we have these days, but doctors in China have also died treating cases for this one.

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#2435025 9-Mar-2020 14:10

mattwnz:

Is there any indication that that is the case, or it is going to occur? . If the people managing this believe that is likely, even though they have said it is unlikely that we will have widespread community transmissions, why wouldn't they be shutting down the borders now, and preventing travel, like they have in China? The WHO has already said that countries must not allow this to spread within communities. It causes far too many people to need hospitalization, and it kills too many, and that is avoidable.The NZ health system would never be able to cope as we don't have the ICU beds. The problem is time, and not reacting in time, or not nipping it in the bud fast enough. The problem with this particular virus, is the long incubation period before you can shown symptoms, and it spreads silently. If we went to the extreme, we could have closed our borders of incoming people, and not had any cases at all, and no risk of it spreading. The next step was to do what Samoa has done, which is restricting travel from all countries with cases, and not allowing cruise ships to dock. But when they have other things to consider such as the economy etc, but what happens in the economy is largely dictated by how this spreads overseas. We should be learning from the mistakes other countries have made, and the success China has had, as we do have the benefit of being a few weeks behind in time. There does appear to be a lot of misinformation and fake news out there, a lot to do with people not understanding the numbers.

100% agree

China has had it for 4 months. Its felt is started in late Nov 2019. Just over 4 months later its now contained, after very early and very aggressive and mammoth quarantines

Italy had

2 on 21 Jan

470 on 26 Feb, about a month later

7375 on 8 March, about 12 days later

Do not under estimate this

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#2435028 9-Mar-2020 14:14

mattwnz:

The next step was to do what Samoa has done, which is restricting travel from all countries with cases, and not allowing cruise ships to dock.

its a bit stronger than that

Samoa are demanding medical certificates from ALL travellers,( regardless of country,)

While those from the following must have self isolated for 14 days before coming the Samoa + then have got a medical cert before they flew,

CHINA,HONG KONG, MACAU, JAPAN, SINGAPORE, THAILAND, SOUTH KOREA, ITALY, IRAN, KUWAIT, TAIWAN, GERMANY SPAIN, FRANCE, BAHRAIN

This is a great big "go away" sign from Samoa, and it will likely kill their tourist economy,

http://www.samoagovt.ws/2020/03/health-travel-advisory-novel-coronavirus-covid-2019-effective-immediately-5/

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neb

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#2435034 9-Mar-2020 14:20

wellygary:
Samoa are demanding medical certificates from ALL travellers,( regardless of country,)

Given that NZ killed one fifth of the population of Samoa due to gross negligence in its handling of the 1918 outbreak (neighbouring American Samoa had zero deaths), I can see why they'd want to be very, very careful about this one. If any country has reason to be wary, it's Samoa.

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#2435037 9-Mar-2020 14:21

wellygary:

mattwnz:

The next step was to do what Samoa has done, which is restricting travel from all countries with cases, and not allowing cruise ships to dock.

its a bit stronger than that

Samoa are demanding medical certificates from ALL travellers,( regardless of country,)

While those from the following must have self isolated for 14 days before coming the Samoa + then have got a medical cert before they flew,

CHINA,HONG KONG, MACAU, JAPAN, SINGAPORE, THAILAND, SOUTH KOREA, ITALY, IRAN, KUWAIT, TAIWAN, GERMANY SPAIN, FRANCE, BAHRAIN

This is a great big "go away" sign from Samoa, and it will likely kill their tourist economy,

http://www.samoagovt.ws/2020/03/health-travel-advisory-novel-coronavirus-covid-2019-effective-immediately-5/

A very wise decision. A breakout in Samoa or any of the Island would be devastating. I hope New Zealand and Australia will provide financial and material aid.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

mattwnz

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#2435039 9-Mar-2020 14:24

neb:
wellygary:

Samoa are demanding medical certificates from ALL travellers,( regardless of country,)

Given that NZ killed one fifth of the population of Samoa due to gross negligence in its handling of the 1918 outbreak (neighbouring American Samoa had zero deaths), I can see why they'd want to be very, very careful about this one. If any country has reason to be wary, it's Samoa.

I understand they also have the problem with measles ATM. I think NZ hold be following Samoas approach now, with the way this is now heading in other countries. In the 21st century, first world countries should be able to nip this in the bud. At the moment I feel we are just delaying the inevitable.

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#2435045 9-Mar-2020 14:32

mattwnz:

I understand they also have the problem with measles ATM. I think NZ hold be following Samoas approach now, with the way this is now heading in other countries. In the 21st century, first world countries should be able to nip this in the bud. At the moment I feel we are just delaying the inevitable.

I believe that financial concerns are heavily influencing NZ Government decisions. I can imagine that there is a continuous stream of emails, phone calls and meetings from and with representatives of such sectors as the tourist industry.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2435046 9-Mar-2020 14:34

I think this thread should be renamed "Let's frighten the hell out of each other". You know, part of the fight against this virus is a mental one, and some people who read this thread regularly will start suffering unnecessary anxiety, which can reduce your resistance and just make things worse for yourself.

If just occasionally, people could write more reassuring posts which explain how NZ's response to this virus is planned to help us all, this would be good. I know some people who are going around as if NZ is already overrun with the virus, when most places don't have any recorded cases at all. They won't go to their normal group meetings or sports events and are flat out cancelling all NZ travel plans. Look, it's too early to do that yet (IMHO)!

Sure, it's good to be prepared, but some better perspectives and less "frightening" posts about what's happening overseas might help some people to cope better with this situation.

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#2435049 9-Mar-2020 14:39

frednz:

I think this thread should be renamed "Let's frighten the hell out of each other". You know, part of the fight against this virus is a mental one, and some people who read this thread regularly will start suffering unnecessary anxiety, which can reduce your resistance and just make things worse for yourself.

If just occasionally, people could write more reassuring posts which explain how NZ's response to this virus is planned to help us all, this would be good. I know some people who are going around as if NZ is already overrun with the virus, when most places don't have any recorded cases at all. They won't go to their normal group meetings or sports events and are flat out cancelling all NZ travel plans. Look, it's too early to do that yet (IMHO)!

Sure, it's good to be prepared, but some better perspectives and less "frightening" posts about what's happening overseas might help some people to cope better with this situation.

I have never seen the power of positive thinking kill a virus. Oh and I am and have been for a couple of decades fighting a serious medical condition and winning, I know all about state of mind.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

wellygary

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#2435051 9-Mar-2020 14:41

Some potentially good news from Korea,

"with 686 new cases detected on Monday, 600 on Tuesday, 516 on Wednesday and 438 on Thursday. Friday's new cases rose slightly to 518.

Aside from Daegu and neighboring North Gyeongsang Province, the number of daily new virus infections in other parts of the country had remained in the 30s over the past few days, the data showed."

"The country's health authorities have checked some 160,000 people since Jan. 20, when South Korea reported its first case of COVID-19. The country is currently testing 9,000 to 10,000 people a day"

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200305010900320

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#2435053 9-Mar-2020 14:44

Prayer, maybe?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

tdgeek

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#2435056 9-Mar-2020 14:45

frednz:

I think this thread should be renamed "Let's frighten the hell out of each other". You know, part of the fight against this virus is a mental one, and some people who read this thread regularly will start suffering unnecessary anxiety, which can reduce your resistance and just make things worse for yourself.

If just occasionally, people could write more reassuring posts which explain how NZ's response to this virus is planned to help us all, this would be good. I know some people who are going around as if NZ is already overrun with the virus, when most places don't have any recorded cases at all. They won't go to their normal group meetings or sports events and are flat out cancelling all NZ travel plans. Look, it's too early to do that yet (IMHO)!

Sure, it's good to be prepared, but some better perspectives and less "frightening" posts about what's happening overseas might help some people to cope better with this situation.

My stance has always been pretty casual, should be fine etc. If you look at my recent post re Italy, yes its fair to say thats a doomer post. But it isnt actually, its just factual figures typed on a post. If we all had a lot of discussion on this and the word "exponential" never needed to be raised, the virus will come and it will go. But unfortunately, the numbers are real, not clickbait or Mr Doomsday, they are real. As you know climate change has a tipping point, where all manner of positive changes are too late, its a runaway problem. This virus is not disimilar, we need to appreciate that. Our Govt is taking a low action and hope on this. It may work out ok, but if they are wrong, all hell will break loose, as it has in Europe. Yes, NZ is not Europe, but its the same virus.

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