2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2435058 9-Mar-2020 14:48

wellygary:

Some potentially good news from Korea,

"with 686 new cases detected on Monday, 600 on Tuesday, 516 on Wednesday and 438 on Thursday. Friday's new cases rose slightly to 518.

Aside from Daegu and neighboring North Gyeongsang Province, the number of daily new virus infections in other parts of the country had remained in the 30s over the past few days, the data showed."

"The country's health authorities have checked some 160,000 people since Jan. 20, when South Korea reported its first case of COVID-19. The country is currently testing 9,000 to 10,000 people a day"

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200305010900320

Great news. I read that Canada is or will be testing 10,000 a day, the US is in the hundreds. I can see that ending badly.

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#2435059 9-Mar-2020 14:48

FineWine:

Beccara:

Big jump in numbers today outside of China but again most are the Cruise ship, We're seeing nearly 10% of the ships population infected now.

IMO quarantining the passengers on that ship was a huge mistake. Mainly due to the enclosed air conditioning system and the close proximity of everyone. I mean having 3500 people in close proximity to each other is inherently hazardous at the best of times. Most ducted air conditioning systems is still a shared air environment, looping from one cabin/area to the next. So removing all passengers to a land-based quarantine where air is not recirculated would most definitely be safer. At the moment can it be proven recirculated air is not the vector to spreading the virus, I mean the daily count of those on board the Diamond Princess is growing.

In a follow-on concerning the above: Coronavirus: Failures on the Diamond Princess shadow another cruise ship outbreak

One of my partners sisters & husband (he has 7 sisters and 2 brothers) were due to travel on the next Diamond Princess cruise but that was cancelled due to the entire ship having to have a top to bottom decontamination rub down. They have been given a cruise credit till end of 2021.

And while all this is happening another sister & 3 friends, who are all in their seventies, are on the the Sun Princess billed as a seven-week Indian Ocean Odyssey.

Well received this email 19 Feb:

One more day at sea, and looking forward to our tour in Madagascar.

Madagascar – Thursday Feb 13. The trip that didn’t happen.

We were all gathered in Legends bar, paid our Euros to the organiser, and waited for the all clear to go to our tender. This wasn’t to be, as the Authorities on land decided we had been in Singapore and Thailand less than 14 days ago, so just in case someone had gone ashore and contracted the Corona Virus, they would not allow anyone off the ship.

Then this email 7 Mar:

Sunday 1st March – Reunion Island

We docked in Reunion yesterday to be met by an angry mob who barricaded the Port gates! Apparently some idiotic DJ on their local radio announced that we had 2 cases of coronavirus on board....totally untrue. So some of the locals got angry and started the blockade. Some of the ship’s officers went out to see what the problem was and then had stones and rocks thrown at them. The road had been covered with large rocks to stop any vehicles. Of course a television crew were on site to report it all. The police were called and the protesters then started a big fire. So then the fire brigade arrived. It was bedlam! The police gassed the demonstrators but they kept it up all day. Meanwhile we had got off the ship and were boarding shuttle buses to go into the towns on the island . So we had to go back onto the ship! The Captain negotiated with the authorities to allow us to exit through a gate further away. So that’s what we did about an hour later.

However, we got into the bus and waited for at least half an hour before we were told there were protesters at the gates. They were throwing stones at the first bus load of passengers, and the police were there with riot shields and tear gas. It appeared that the buses that were paid for were going out a different gate, so we bought a ticket, and the bus just drove straight through. I don’t know what they export other than vanilla, but there are lots of seriously big cranes and lots of containers.

Monday 2nd March - Mauritius – NOT HAPPENING

The Captain announced that the officials in Port Louis were declining us entry. Very disappointing, two of the places I most wanted to visit have been the ones we couldn’t go ashore. We have been given a $250 credit for “Disruption”, and $40.36 for the Port Tax from Mauritius. They also refunded the bus ticket for Reunion Island.

They have all arrived back in Fremantle safely where she will be staying with the above sister & husband for two weeks. She then returns home to Auckland and then she is going north during our winter to Bali, 02 July to 30 August, already booked with airfare paid. Bali is virus free so far, hope it stays so.

And then this lovely article for all you Gym Bunnies: Gyms and coronavirus: What are the risks?

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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#2435075 9-Mar-2020 15:06

Just in from my GP via the Manage My Health app:

From: Mount Medical Centre

Date: 09 Mar 2020 02:23 p.pm

Subject: Corona Virus Phone Number 08003585453

Message: If you are phoning to request an appointment and are experiencing any flu like symptoms including fever, sore throat, cough or shortness of breath, please let our receptionist know at the time of booking. If you suspect Corona Virus please call healthline 08003585453

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

wellygary

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#2435077 9-Mar-2020 15:09

FineWine:

One of my partners sisters & husband (he has 7 sisters and 2 brothers) were due to travel on the next Diamond Princess cruise but that was cancelled due to the entire ship having to have a top to bottom decontamination rub down. They have been given a cruise credit till end of 2021.

This is all about image and marketing,

They could probably just take the boat to a nice dry climate like the Persian gulf and park it up with no crew on for a month with all the doors and windows open and it would end up being as clean as it will be after the "rub down"

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#2435079 9-Mar-2020 15:14

MikeB4:

frednz:

I think this thread should be renamed "Let's frighten the hell out of each other". You know, part of the fight against this virus is a mental one, and some people who read this thread regularly will start suffering unnecessary anxiety, which can reduce your resistance and just make things worse for yourself.

If just occasionally, people could write more reassuring posts which explain how NZ's response to this virus is planned to help us all, this would be good. I know some people who are going around as if NZ is already overrun with the virus, when most places don't have any recorded cases at all. They won't go to their normal group meetings or sports events and are flat out cancelling all NZ travel plans. Look, it's too early to do that yet (IMHO)!

Sure, it's good to be prepared, but some better perspectives and less "frightening" posts about what's happening overseas might help some people to cope better with this situation.

I have never seen the power of positive thinking kill a virus. Oh and I am and have been for a couple of decades fighting a serious medical condition and winning, I know all about state of mind.

While it doesn't directly,

anything that boosts the immune system can have the potential to enhance killing of virus,

anything that suppresses, have the potential to suppress.

now whether positive energy boosts or stress suppresses it's probably not known, but nothing is impossible. placebo and nocebo would come very close to positive and negative energy. and they actually have real effects.

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#2435081 9-Mar-2020 15:15

FineWine:

Sunday 1st March – Reunion Island

We docked in Reunion yesterday to be met by an angry mob who barricaded the Port gates! Apparently some idiotic DJ on their local radio announced that we had 2 cases of coronavirus on board....totally untrue. So some of the locals got angry and started the blockade. Some of the ship’s officers went out to see what the problem was and then had stones and rocks thrown at them. The road had been covered with large rocks to stop any vehicles. Of course a television crew were on site to report it all. The police were called and the protesters then started a big fire. So then the fire brigade arrived. It was bedlam! The police gassed the demonstrators but they kept it up all day. Meanwhile we had got off the ship and were boarding shuttle buses to go into the towns on the island . So we had to go back onto the ship! The Captain negotiated with the authorities to allow us to exit through a gate further away. So that’s what we did about an hour later.

However, we got into the bus and waited for at least half an hour before we were told there were protesters at the gates. They were throwing stones at the first bus load of passengers, and the police were there with riot shields and tear gas. It appeared that the buses that were paid for were going out a different gate, so we bought a ticket, and the bus just drove straight through. I don’t know what they export other than vanilla, but there are lots of seriously big cranes and lots of containers.

And then you have ladies fighting over toilet paper in Oz. This is important stuff. Ignorance-based panic is a bigger threat than the virus itself and may be harder to contain. Once it starts, there is no controlling it.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2435082 9-Mar-2020 15:15

tdgeek:
Italy as at Saturday has 7375 cases, 366 deaths

Ummmm, that's pretty close to a five percent death rate - 4.963% to be more precise, but by my arithmetic that's uncomfortably close to 5%

FIVE PERCENT?
😟

Edit: correctly attribute figures to @tdgeek

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#2435083 9-Mar-2020 15:17

Rikkitic:

Prayer, maybe?

I've been doing that for weeks now, but looking at spaghetti stock prices plummet and other things has shattered my faith in the FSM's power to intervene. He works in mysterious ways indeed - a country's fondness for noodly things correlates almost perfectly with severity of the epidemic. I'm truly at risk of losing my faith.

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#2435084 9-Mar-2020 15:18

PolicyGuy:

Italy as at Saturday has 7375 cases, 366 deaths

Ummmm, that's pretty close to a five percent death rate - 4.963% to be more precise, but by my arithmetic that's uncomfortably close to 5%

FIVE PERCENT?
😟

couple of things - there are the 7004 cases that may be dying, so it could be 100%, or there may be another 1 million not tested because they don't have 1 million test kits and 100,000 lab workers, which lowers the death rate to 0.03 percent

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#2435085 9-Mar-2020 15:22

PolicyGuy:

Italy as at Saturday has 7375 cases, 366 deaths

Ummmm, that's pretty close to a five percent death rate - 4.963% to be more precise, but by my arithmetic that's uncomfortably close to 5%

FIVE PERCENT?
😟

Its sorta new there. They added 133 to get to 266 the day before, so I imagine that the case count isnt aligned with death count. Having said that, the death count should lag, in which case all the new cases includes victims that have not yet succumbed, which would align the two numbers, but increase the mortality rate. I read here that Italy has a relatively high elderly population. Maybe more victims as care isnt coming soon enough or at all, as I think @Fred99 alluded to with China. Italians are very outgoing, there's always a social gathering and pasta going on somewhere, that won't help

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#2435093 9-Mar-2020 15:29

tdgeek:

Its sorta new there. They added 133 to get to 266 the day before, so I imagine that the case count isnt aligned with death count. Having said that, the death count should lag, in which case all the new cases includes victims that have not yet succumbed, which would align the two numbers, but increase the mortality rate. I read here that Italy has a relatively high elderly population. Maybe more victims as care isnt coming soon enough or at all, as I think @Fred99 alluded to with China. Italians are very outgoing, there's always a social gathering and pasta going on somewhere, that won't help

Here's the most recent update from the Italian ministry of Health , it is the same as policyguy's numbers

http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_0_file.pdf

Its google translate is here

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.salute.gov.it%2Fportale%2Fp5_11.jsp

The final column "Tamponi" is mistranslated as "pads" it should be swabs or tests.... which is a really interesting number given its well less than a third of the total tests made in South Korea, which has a comparable case count,

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#2435098 9-Mar-2020 15:34

This is quite a good NZ article on this subject today https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/103961/keith-woodford-says-new-zealand-has-act-quickly-more-travel-restrictions-if-it

tdgeek

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#2435100 9-Mar-2020 15:36

wellygary:

tdgeek:

Its sorta new there. They added 133 to get to 266 the day before, so I imagine that the case count isnt aligned with death count. Having said that, the death count should lag, in which case all the new cases includes victims that have not yet succumbed, which would align the two numbers, but increase the mortality rate. I read here that Italy has a relatively high elderly population. Maybe more victims as care isnt coming soon enough or at all, as I think @Fred99 alluded to with China. Italians are very outgoing, there's always a social gathering and pasta going on somewhere, that won't help

Here's the most recent update from the Italian ministry of Health , it is the same as policyguy's numbers

http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_0_file.pdf

Its google translate is here

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.salute.gov.it%2Fportale%2Fp5_11.jsp

The final column "Tamponi" is mistranslated as "pads" it should be swabs or tests.... which is a really interesting number given its well less than a third of the total tests made in South Korea, which has a comparable case count,

Cheers

PoilcyGuy stole my numbers! Copied from my post actually :-) I heard China is sending stuff to help out other affected countries, perhaps SK had ahead start there, but no idea. Certainly every health system will differ, some able to react sooner, but those two seem to be doing very admirably I feel.

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#2435105 9-Mar-2020 15:43

tdgeek:

PoilcyGuy stole my numbers! Copied from my post actually :-)

I did, and I botched the quote so that the figures were not properly attributed.

Apologies, and the attribution is now corrected

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#2435106 9-Mar-2020 15:43

FineWine:

And then this lovely article for all you Gym Bunnies: Gyms and coronavirus: What are the risks?

Can't read it, have to subscribe so can't be that important a health message.

Off to gym I go, just making sure wipe equipment down, and wash hands well when finished.

Living Life normally at moment, just washing hands lot more often and trying to keep fit.

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