2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2435376 9-Mar-2020 20:58

No pun intended, but this virus must be killing Fox News.

They love to scare their viewers, and a pandemic keeps old retirees glued to the screen.

They also love bashing all forms of socialism, and letting the invisible hand of the economy choose the winners and losers. Most Fox viewers firmly believe only with unfettered individual self-interest, freedom of production, and consumption are the best interest of society, as a whole, are fulfilled.

But panicked people only care about their own self interest. Society be damned. Which leads to hoarding, price gouging, and shortage of materials for people who are actually sick, or selflessly caring for the sick.

The differences in health care based on wealth actually make the virus more effective. If a sick young busboy takes a bus to work at a restaurant, because he can't afford to get tested, or take the time off, society pays the price.

Fox News viewers demand to know everything that's be said by the President. But I've heard complaints from US hedge fund managers that Trump wipes out billions of dollars from funds every time he talk about the virus.

It sucks to be Fox News.

freitasm

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#2435377 9-Mar-2020 21:03

Release from New Zealand Government:

Cabinet today approved the development of a Business Continuity Package to help support the economy through the disruption caused by COVID-19.

“New Zealand is well-placed to respond to COVID-19. We have been running surpluses and our net debt position at 19.5% of GDP is well below what we inherited, and well below other countries,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson says.

“We’ve also got ahead of this, through the $12 billion New Zealand Upgrade Programme of road, rail, health and school infrastructure investment around the country.

“Government Ministers have been in regular contact with businesses and industry groups as we work together to respond to the impacts of COVID-19. We have already taken action to support businesses and workers, and we are now in a position to announce the next steps in response to this rapidly changing situation.”

The Business Continuity Package includes:

a targeted wage subsidy scheme for workers in the most adversely affected sectors.
training and re-deployment options for affected employees; and
working with banks on the potential for future working capital support for companies that face temporary credit constraints;
As part of the package:

The Treasury and IRD have been directed to develop tax policy options in line with the goal of reducing the impact for affected businesses, to support businesses to maintain operational continuity.
The Treasury and MSD have been directed to develop policy options to support households to maintain incomes and labour market attachment.
The detail of this package is now being worked through. It will be discussed again at the Cabinet COVID-19 committee on Wednesday, and the Government expects to be in a position to make further detailed announcements next week.

At all stages, the Government will be engaging with business groups and industry representatives, to make sure the Business Continuity Package meets their targeted needs.

Grant Robertson will be making a speech on Thursday at a Wellington Chamber of Commerce event, expanding on the Government’s approach.

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Fred99

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#2435383 9-Mar-2020 21:15

I think the RBNZ is making a statement tomorrow. They're talking of "unconventional" measures. Last time that meant LVR restrictions.

Batman

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#2435387 9-Mar-2020 21:22

Fred99:

I think the RBNZ is making a statement tomorrow. They're talking of "unconventional" measures. Last time that meant LVR restrictions.

most likely an OCR cut

Tinkerisk

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#2435388 9-Mar-2020 21:28

And always keep in mind: "Life is life-threatening and in the vast majority of all cases ends in death." 🤧😷

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

Fred99

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#2435390 9-Mar-2020 21:35

Batman:

Fred99:

I think the RBNZ is making a statement tomorrow. They're talking of "unconventional" measures. Last time that meant LVR restrictions.

most likely an OCR cut

Yes - but I doubt "just" an OCR cut. Productive business needs to be supported - not rent-seeking.

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Fred99

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#2435393 9-Mar-2020 21:39

Tinkerisk:

And always keep in mind: "Life is life-threatening and in the vast majority of all cases ends in death." 🤧😷

This is true - apart from the "vast majority" part - which is definitely unreasonably over-optimistic

frankv

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#2435400 9-Mar-2020 22:15

Fred99:

Tinkerisk:

And always keep in mind: "Life is life-threatening and in the vast majority of all cases ends in death." 🤧😷

This is true - apart from the "vast majority" part - which is definitely unreasonably over-optimistic

The exceptions are well documented.

wellygary

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#2435401 9-Mar-2020 22:24

Batman:

Fred99:

I think the RBNZ is making a statement tomorrow. They're talking of "unconventional" measures. Last time that meant LVR restrictions.

most likely an OCR cut

Nope,

this is long scheduled research document, it would have passed without interest without COVID and the current meltdown,

The market conclusion is that the RBNZ is running low on bullets, so will use them sparingly, so any moves are likely to be on scheduled, ( its intersting to note on the US fed moved out of sequence, all the other central bank cuts in the last week have been at scheduled meetings)

The following is from a BNZ research note this morning,

"Note that on Tuesday the RBNZ will let all and sundry know what its thoughts are on unconventional tools. A few weeks ago, this looked like a fairly boring pronouncement, as the economy appeared set to building up enough momentum to reduce the possibility of their use to near zero. How things have changed! And, indeed, it is the unconventional rather than the conventional that, generally, looks an increasing likelihood in the current environment.

We will thus be looking at this with great interest though we are quick to point out that there will be nothing in this announcement with regard to the likelihood of their use.

The release of this paper has been scheduled for some time and it is designed to lay out a framework rather than a course of action.

Note also, the RBNZ has said it will not discuss monetary policy at this time so the announcement should not be market moving

but there is always the risk that markets will glean something from the Bank’s body-language"

Scott3

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#2435402 9-Mar-2020 22:26

Batman:

most likely an OCR cut

While likely, that is considered conventional.

Assume something else stacked on top. QE? Negative OCR? extended liquidity operations? forward guidance?

Fred99

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#2435403 9-Mar-2020 22:30

frankv:

Fred99:

This is true - apart from the "vast majority" part - which is definitely unreasonably over-optimistic

The exceptions are well documented.

What? In a zombie movie - or the bible?

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tdgeek

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#2435413 10-Mar-2020 06:52

NZ sharemarket doing better than others, Govt measures seem well thought out, supporting earners and businesses. The expected reduced fuel at the pump is helpful.China going back to work. As with the last GFC we should fare better than most, and after a recession it always bounces back. What will happen if in a few months, containment is happening? Confidence. While a recession has been forecasted for a while now, this dip/correctoon is virus induced, and that wont last forever (cross fingers and toes)

MikeB4

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#2435425 10-Mar-2020 07:26

tdgeek:

NZ sharemarket doing better than others, Govt measures seem well thought out, supporting earners and businesses. The expected reduced fuel at the pump is helpful.China going back to work. As with the last GFC we should fare better than most, and after a recession it always bounces back. What will happen if in a few months, containment is happening? Confidence. While a recession has been forecasted for a while now, this dip/correctoon is virus induced, and that wont last forever (cross fingers and toes)

You might say the NZSX is doing better but I have lost over $18K in the last two weeks. I am not panicking and will ride it out. This will take quite a while to show a sustained recovery and the virus outbreak is still in its infancy.

I shudder to think what my wife's Kiwi Saver has lost.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

tdgeek

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#2435427 10-Mar-2020 07:34

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

NZ sharemarket doing better than others, Govt measures seem well thought out, supporting earners and businesses. The expected reduced fuel at the pump is helpful.China going back to work. As with the last GFC we should fare better than most, and after a recession it always bounces back. What will happen if in a few months, containment is happening? Confidence. While a recession has been forecasted for a while now, this dip/correctoon is virus induced, and that wont last forever (cross fingers and toes)

You might say the NZSX is doing better but I have lost over $18K in the last two weeks. I am not panicking and will ride it out. This will take quite a while to show a sustained recovery and the virus outbreak is still in its infancy.

I shudder to think what my wife's Kiwi Saver has lost.

Its paper money unless you need it now. It will recover, it always does. Invariably to new highs

cshwone

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#2435429 10-Mar-2020 07:35

MikeB4:

I shudder to think what my wife's Kiwi Saver has lost.

Surely it hasn’t actually lost anything unless you actually draw down the KiwiSaver

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