2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2435496 10-Mar-2020 10:07

MikeB4:
tdgeek:

ALL the population in Italy are now in lockdown, more to come

Any links? I can only find need about northern Italy and that folks who don't Oney the lock down there face prosecution.

It was a Newshub alert on my phone Mike

here we go

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/03/italy-to-be-entirely-locked-down-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

tdgeek

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#2435498 10-Mar-2020 10:10

GV27:

We are clearly past the point of a pandemic. The failure to declare one is not a great reflection on WHO.

Its to avoid panic they say. Yeah. The world is rife with information. The most reaction if they decared a pandemic will probbaly be "oh ok". Bizarre

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#2435501 10-Mar-2020 10:14

wellygary:

tdgeek:

ALL the population in Italy are now in lockdown, more to come

Although its not quite clear how strict "lockdown" is,

There are reports that travel for work is to be permitted, but its not clear if that is regular work, or in special situations...

Seems so, yes. Its a good move. It will heavily reduce gatherings, and that will cause the virus to have a much harder time being transmitted.

MikeB4

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#2435503 10-Mar-2020 10:17

GV27:

We are clearly past the point of a pandemic. The failure to declare one is not a great reflection on WHO.

Inline with the six stages of a pandemic the World has not yet reached a pandemic stage according to definition. We are around stage four to five.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

MikeB4

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#2435504 10-Mar-2020 10:19

tdgeek:

here we go

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/03/italy-to-be-entirely-locked-down-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Newshub and their dramatic headlines.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

GV27

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#2435505 10-Mar-2020 10:23

MikeB4:

GV27:

We are clearly past the point of a pandemic. The failure to declare one is not a great reflection on WHO.

Inline with the six stages of a pandemic the World has not yet reached a pandemic stage according to definition. We are around stage four to five.

I'm curious at what point we actually reach a pandemic though. There is clearly community transmission across the globe, we still have airplanes flying and travelers spreading different strains. How monumentally stuffed will things need to get before the WHO 'pandemic' button is pushed, given most nations are now activating those plans anyway?

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tdgeek

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#2435507 10-Mar-2020 10:27

GV27:

I'm curious at what point we actually reach a pandemic though. There is clearly community transmission across the globe, we still have airplanes flying and travelers spreading different strains. How monumentally stuffed will things need to get before the WHO 'pandemic' button is pushed, given most nations are now activating those plans anyway?

Seems black and white to me.

Phase 1: A virus in animals has caused no known infections in humans.
Phase 2: An animal flu virus has caused infection in humans.
Phase 3: Sporadic cases or small clusters of disease occur in humans. Human-to-human transmission, if any, is insufficient to cause community-level outbreaks.
Phase 4: The risk for a pandemic is greatly increased but not certain.
Phase 5: Spread of disease between humans is occurring in more than one country of one WHO region.
Phase 6: Community-level outbreaks are in at least one additional country in a different WHO region from phase 5. A global pandemic is under way.

Gordy7

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#2435508 10-Mar-2020 10:27

FineWine:

... snip ....

Our household has been using the cheaper option of a hose bidet, like they use throughout Asia, for well on 25 years. We then use 2 or 3 segments of toilet paper to pat dry. It then also doubles as a skid mark or splatter cleaner as well, as opposed to the toilet brush that is one of the worst harbinger of germs in that little room. Best hygienic thing ever.

@Finewine

I have often considered a bidet hose sprayer after using them around the middle east where the water temperature is a lot higher in winter.

Is the colder water temperature spay in NZ something you get used to? Need a heater? :-)

Gordy

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wellygary

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#2435509 10-Mar-2020 10:28

GV27:

I'm curious at what point we actually reach a pandemic though. There is clearly community transmission across the globe, we still have airplanes flying and travelers spreading different strains. How monumentally stuffed will things need to get before the WHO 'pandemic' button is pushed, given most nations are now activating those plans anyway?

The last pandemic was the H1N1 outbreak is 2009, its killed an estimated 100-400,000 ppl,

- I don't think we are quite there yet... China is looking very contained, Korea appears to be getting contained,

Italy and Iran are serious concerns, and the US might be very soon...

MikeB4

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#2435512 10-Mar-2020 10:32

GV27:

I'm curious at what point we actually reach a pandemic though. There is clearly community transmission across the globe, we still have airplanes flying and travellers spreading different strains. How monumentally stuffed will things need to get before the WHO 'pandemic' button is pushed, given most nations are now activating those plans anyway?

One has to keep in mind there is considerable alarmist click bait headlines and stories in the press. I believe they hold a large responsibility for the panic that we are seeing. If there needs to be any form of lock down here its the press that should muffled. Of course I don't believe we should gag the press but they do need to show a lot more professionalism and responsibility.

Read the WHO website for a balanced view of what is going on or our own MOH website.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

Batman

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#2435513 10-Mar-2020 10:37

MikeB4:

GV27:

We are clearly past the point of a pandemic. The failure to declare one is not a great reflection on WHO.

Inline with the six stages of a pandemic the World has not yet reached a pandemic stage according to definition. We are around stage four to five.

I don't know what rock you guys live under but the United Nations is a political puppet show.

Don't believe me?

Taiwan has no voice?

Does NATO stop Russia bullying people?

Saudi Arabia on the human rights council?

WHO is not your light in shining armour protecting the world health. I never expected them to have any role in the pandemic other than clocking up business class travel miles.

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GV27

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#2435514 10-Mar-2020 10:41

tdgeek:

Phase 5: Spread of disease between humans is occurring in more than one country of one WHO region.
Phase 6: Community-level outbreaks are in at least one additional country in a different WHO region from phase 5. A global pandemic is under way.

Those things seem to be pretty obviously happening (Italy, Iran, France, Australia) etc.

Yes, there is severe sensationalism, but the ability of a command-control economy with an authoritarian state apparatus like China to 'stop the spread' used measures that would be unfathomable in the Western world i.e. locking people in their homes and shutting down a population centre bigger than NZ's entire population. I feel like this is getting lost here.

MikeB4

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#2435515 10-Mar-2020 10:43

@Batman thanks for the wide angled insult on folks intelligence

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

wellygary

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#2435516 10-Mar-2020 10:47

GV27:

the ability of a command-control economy with an authoritarian state apparatus like China to 'stop the spread' used measures that would be unfathomable in the Western world

Let's see what happens in Italy, and whether liberal democratic citizens are prepared to accept the new restrictions - I Think they will....

Fred99

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#2435519 10-Mar-2020 10:49

wellygary:

GV27:

I'm curious at what point we actually reach a pandemic though. There is clearly community transmission across the globe, we still have airplanes flying and travelers spreading different strains. How monumentally stuffed will things need to get before the WHO 'pandemic' button is pushed, given most nations are now activating those plans anyway?

The last pandemic was the H1N1 outbreak is 2009, its killed an estimated 100-400,000 ppl,

- I don't think we are quite there yet... China is looking very contained, Korea appears to be getting contained,

Italy and Iran are serious concerns, and the US might be very soon...

The H1N1/09 pandemic fizzled out, probably because cross-immunity limited the R0, and/or the virus mutated to become a less virulent strain as it spread, or they simply overestimated the severity - possibly because the initial age distribution of severe cases seemed more like the 1918 pandemic strain as it was affecting young healthy people - that being the fear of what a repeat of 1918-20 would look like.

Covid-19 has far greater pandemic potential. It's very dangerous comparing it to H1N1/09 in terms of expectation of how a pandemic will progress and the death toll.

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