Scott3:

 

Although I have heard of the Sydney lock down being called lock-down lite, this is kinda worrying for New Zealand. Indicates a decent Delta outbreak here will take a harsh (L3 or L4) lockdown to get on top of, and suggestets that we would be unlikely to get on top of it in under 3 weeks, meaning any decent delta outbreak is going to be economically expensive...

 

It shows the truly massive implications we'd face here, especially with our vaccination rates still being so much lower than Australia for 1st dose which is at least going to be offering them some additional protection. What is very clear is that a L3 lockdown with exactly the same rules and guidelines that we had here previously would not stop spread. Even L4 would need additional measures particularly around mask use, physical contact and physical distancing and even workplaces with distancing are not necessarily safe with spread in air conditioning systems.

The scary fact is that in Sydney we're seeing entire families are being infected in households, along with everybody they are interacting with indoors such as extended family members. Without naming and shaming any particular ethnic groups we know that here in NZ during previous lockdowns that there were multiple issues particularly in South Auckland where the concept of bubbles was not followed, and when you've got so many instances of very large families living in homes and significant risk factors already present a Delta breakout in Auckland right now has the potential to be very bad.

The Roche report out yesterday showed massive failings in February, and I'm not sure if we've really learned lessons from that yet (even though one of the key findings was that they had failed to learn any lessons from past reports into past outbreaks).