2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2758291 11-Aug-2021 07:06

not sure if that's the news you wanted but here goes

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical

Batman

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#2758292 11-Aug-2021 07:07

"UK’s daily death toll at highest level since March while over 75% of adults now fully jabbed"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/aug/10/coronavirus-live-news-china-india-arkansas?page=with:block-611296098f089093df87a17c#block-611296098f089093df87a17c

sbiddle

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#2758298 11-Aug-2021 07:15

What is going to be interesting is to see whether there appears to be any difference in infection & death rates in fully vaccinated people between the different vaccine types - and between AZ / Pfizer / Moderna in particular.

I could see a lot of irony if after all the trashing by the US and EU that we saw a scenario where say the AZ actually offers better protection!

Fred99

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#2758306 11-Aug-2021 07:53

Batman:

"UK’s daily death toll at highest level since March while over 75% of adults now fully jabbed"

The case fatality rate in the UK has dropped from about 2% to about 0.3%

Most of those deaths are unvaccinated.

The Guardian's headline is irresponsible. They've cherry picked a point in time (the end of March) just when their huge "second wave" death toll had declined, to make a stupid comparison.

Fred99

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#2758312 11-Aug-2021 08:13

sbiddle:

The government is great at putting their hands up in the air and saying things are too hard - they've done this with pretty much every difficult issue they've had to deal with in the last few years, and in many ways we're seeing this very thing happen again with MIQ right now. There are fixes that should have been implemented months ago that might possibly happen at some point in the future.

Thanks for the unbalanced political rant to start the day.

You forgot to mention that while "putting their hands up in the air and saying things are too hard" they also managed to implement policy "on the fly" which has been overall very successful - and has certainly saved the lives of many tens of thousands of our people.

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#2758316 11-Aug-2021 08:20

Scotland, similar population to here has had 10,000 deaths

From the article today on the Skegg report

The report also says that the elimination strategy - defined as zero tolerance for new cases, not full eradication - has resulted in huge health and economic benefits to New Zealand, comparing the country to Scotland where more than 10,000 people from a similarly sized population have died.

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#2758347 11-Aug-2021 08:44

Stranger than fiction ...

BBC News - I Am Legend screenwriter dismisses anti-vax claims based on film's plot

today

One of the writers of the sci-fi film I Am Legend has clarified its fictional nature amid rumours Covid-19 vaccines would turn people into zombies.

The 2007 film, starring Will Smith, is about a failed attempt to genetically re-engineer measles, killing 99% of the world's population.

Those who survive the infection turn into mutant vampiric creatures.

Claims that something similar would happen to people receiving Covid jabs have been circulating on social media. ...

Responding to the article, Akiva Goldsman, 59, who co-wrote the screenplay based on a 1954 novel of the same name, tweeted: "Oh. My. God. It's a movie. I made that up. It's. Not. Real." ...

I Am Legend is not the only film used by activists to spread misinformation about Covid and vaccines. Other films such as Children of Men and The Matrix have appeared in similar memes and posts.

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#2758350 11-Aug-2021 08:59

Batman:

not sure if that's the news you wanted but here goes

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical

Lending support to the herd immunity issue with Delta, Israeli data (below) show that the proportion of people testing positive more than 20 days after their second dose is almost the same as the proportion of people who have had two doses of Pfizer vaccine**. Applies across all age bands. That is, the vaccine appears to be having very little if any impact on the chance of being infected. There may be some compounding factors (vaccinated people being less cautious?) but that is unlikely to much affect the results; eg. bearing in mind that in the case of the say 60+ age group, 90%+ of those testing positive had been fully vaccinated more than 20 days ago. Also given that this applies across all age groups (at least for 20 years and up); ie. including the 80-89, and 90+ age groups. Unlikely many of them are being 'less cautious' given the current rampant virus situation in Israel.

** There is a slight mismatch in the data as the vaccinated proportion includes people who had their second dose less than 21 days ago. But in the case of Israel, that is a very small component. Excluding them would tilt the comparison less favourably in terms of vaccine effectiveness in preventing inflection (smaller at risk group).

Note: Under 20's not shown as the age groups used for them in the two datasets are not compatible.

wellygary

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#2758364 11-Aug-2021 09:24

Buried in the Skegg report

No kids able to travel easily in the initial border reopening, ( they [and their families] would still be required to do 14 days MIQ

27th July letter:

10. You have also asked which travellers departing New Zealand might be eligble for reduced quarantine requirements when this system is eventually introduced. Apart from the requirement to be fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, we believe the main criterion should be the country or countries to be visited or transited through. At present a person who has spent a fortnight in Brazil or India, for example, would pose a greater risk than someone who has visited a low-risk country.

We understand that the Ministry of Health have been developing a system for classifying the risk associated with different countries on an ongoing basis. The reduced quarantine scheme could start with people who have visited low-risk (or medium- and low-risk) countries for a limited period – say up to one month.

"11. Because children are currently not eligible for vaccination, we suggest that the scheme should initially be confined to vaccinated adults. Depending on experience, the arrangement could later be extended to include family groups where all the adults have been fully vaccinated."

The group also they earlier recommended rebranding NZ's "elimination" strategy with something in Te reo

10th June Letter:

"24. The advisory group recommends that the Government, after appropriate consultation, should choose a new name in Te Reo Māori, to reflect the unique approach of Aotearoa New Zealand to this pandemic virus. Such a name could provide clarity in identifying our strategy for dealing with outbreaks originating from international travellers, in order to prevent the establishment of endemic disease."

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/reports/Independent-Advisory-Groups/Strategic-COVID-19-Public-Health-Advisory-Group-Advice-to-Minister-Verrall-June-2021.pdf

Fred99

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#2758372 11-Aug-2021 09:34

DS248:

Lending support to the herd immunity issue with Delta, Israeli data

Not that it means that it's wrong, but Israeli data is an outlier.

But anyway - "herd immunity" against a coronavirus is and always has been at best wishful thinking, at worst a political ploy.

wellygary

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#2758387 11-Aug-2021 09:42

Fred99:

DS248:

Lending support to the herd immunity issue with Delta, Israeli data

Not that it means that it's wrong, but Israeli data is an outlier.

But anyway - "herd immunity" against a coronavirus is and always has been at best wishful thinking, at worst a political ploy.

But on the other hand it is a continual encouragement for people to get vaccinated, because the efficacy of vaccines in reducing Severe illness, hospitalisation or death are still very good..

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Fred99

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#2758439 11-Aug-2021 09:43

A reasonable and not too technical article / discussion paper from the UK, which attempts to answer the question about the longer term:

Can we predict the limits of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their phenotypic consequences?

Provides a broad estimate of likelihood and impact of scenarios as well as discussion on "what could we do?"

PDF file : https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf

Fred99

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#2758441 11-Aug-2021 09:50

wellygary:

But on the other hand it is a continual encouragement for people to get vaccinated, because the efficacy of vaccines in reducing Severe illness, hospitalisation or death are still very good..

Yep - reduced efficacy against infection does not mean equivalent reduced protection against death.

If you do get infected, you're ~20x less likely to die.

I guess if you wear a seatbelt in a car, you're only about twice less likely to die, but most sane people wear seatbelts and don't bother to question how sensible that is. Insane people hunt for data and of course find out that someone, somewhere couldn't undo their seatbelt when they ended up submerged in their car in a lake - and then conclude that seatbelts cause drownings.

Technofreak

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#2758459 11-Aug-2021 10:12

Fred99:

sbiddle:

The government is great at putting their hands up in the air and saying things are too hard - they've done this with pretty much every difficult issue they've had to deal with in the last few years, and in many ways we're seeing this very thing happen again with MIQ right now. There are fixes that should have been implemented months ago that might possibly happen at some point in the future.

Thanks for the unbalanced political rant to start the day.

You forgot to mention that while "putting their hands up in the air and saying things are too hard" they also managed to implement policy "on the fly" which has been overall very successful - and has certainly saved the lives of many tens of thousands of our people.

I think Steve is on the money with his comment.

Please remind me what Covid policy they implemented on the fly that has saved all those lives?. Everything they did was a reaction to what was happening and copied what was being done elsewhere. I'd hardly call that policy and certainly not on the fly, earth shattering or proactive, nothing worth crowing about. They did what anyone would have expected of them.

The MIQ system is a mess there is no denying that. The booking system is a shambles. They've been offered help from booking system experts to fix it but have spurned that help. There's regularly been 2000 unallocated beds each day and we keep getting told space is tight in MIQ. Until recently it was possible to see these numbers but now access to that information has been blocked. Rather than the transparency this government promised this is another example of their opaqueness.

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#2758467 11-Aug-2021 10:29

Technofreak:

Please remind me what Covid policy they implemented on the fly that has saved all those lives?. Everything they did was a reaction to what was happening and copied what was being done elsewhere. I'd hardly call that policy and certainly not earth shattering or proactive, nothing worth crowing about.

I think the fact we have so far being able to keep going without an avalanche of deaths - like in Scotland, already mentioned, is kind of a big deal. Yes, the policies were a reaction but that's because there was no plan anywhere for the kind of pandemic we've seen.

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