2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2438393 15-Mar-2020 08:57

Batman:

He didn't imply any of that.

He's just exteralizing his feelings which is important and we are privileged to be part of his support group.

I sympathise with GT and others here directly affected

If it goes on too long, you'll see tourism businesses laying off staff, self-employed operators going bust and all sorts. The self-employed ones get no sick pay etc either if they catch it.

Seems to me that goes on too long is related to the latest restrictions. These restrictions are there to minimise the effects that he stated. Tourism, unemployment, sick days, etc. Those are already unavoidable, but its better to endure short term pain than a much greater long term pain. How I took his post is that goes on too long as a comment against the latest restrictions not about the virus. I think that's a fair comment.

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#2438394 15-Mar-2020 09:02

MikeB4:

I feel the Government should be talking to the banks regarding mortgage holidays and possible interest free government loans to cover any arrears that may occur for folks that are out of work as a result of this crisis.

Robertson has had talks with the banks, and while he did advise some details, it was also over the banks supporting their customers. The wording inferred to me that it may be any manner of support. The banks did seem to be well on board. My gut feel is that Kiwis will pull together as has happened in past disasters.

Fred99

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#2438395 15-Mar-2020 09:02

The figures from Italy are showing the same/similar gender imbalance in mortality as was apparent in Wuhan, also a difference in diagnosed infection rate. More cases identified in men (yet there will be more women aged 60+ in the community), and when infected, men are more likely to die - about 2/3 more likely.

The imbalance in Wuhan seemed to correlate with the very high number of smokers amongst Chinese men - and very low number of smokers amongst women. I don't believe that's the case in Italy where smoking rates are much lower overall, and there's far less difference in smoking rate in men and women. Unless perhaps there's a correlation between ex-smokers (who quit long ago), a prior imbalance in smoking by gender (possible I guess - and probably true for many countries incl NZ, I think 30 years ago more men tended to smoke, and when they did, they probably smoked more). However it seems quite likely that the imbalance isn't to do with smoking - or at least it's not the main reason.

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#2438396 15-Mar-2020 09:06

I'm waiting for the business assistance package - but the biggest cashflow commitments for the month are on Friday (like most businesses) and three days notice is pretty nerve-wracking.

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#2438397 15-Mar-2020 09:07

tdgeek:

Maybe just having 6 cases is luck, but we are far more protected now.

I suspect we have significantly more than six cases, with the low official number simply the consequence of the very limited/targeting testing to date.

The travel restrictions will be helpful in slowing the spread down, but don't make the mistake of thinking they will contain it. We have Covid-19 in the country and it will spread widely. Not if, but when, and how fast.

Our main focus now needs to be containment - ie. social distancing, banning large events, targeted school/area close downs. We need to do this to try and minimise our health system being overloaded from an early peak. And look out for, and after, our elderly as they are most vulnerable.

And memo to the PM: The government own a TV and radio station - regular public health information and advice segments would go a long way in helping educate the public.

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#2438398 15-Mar-2020 09:18

Sport Related, The Wellington Hurricanes have just posted on Facebook that the season is suspended now.

Just thinking also, the V8 Supercars event at Hampton Downs next month will likely be postponed or cancelled as a result

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#2438399 15-Mar-2020 09:18

eracode:
Geektastic:

My client has cancelled her trip. That's about $30k worth of hotels and activities, food, fuel, transport etc etc that won't now get spent and we are just a small boutique operator. The big guns will be cancelling more than that per day, every day.

If it’s not being too nosey, interested to know in broad terms what your role is in this. Are you a tour operator, guide, transport provider or something like that?

Our company organises boutique private tours for (principally) photographers from overseas which are guided personally by me.

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#2438401 15-Mar-2020 09:19

dafman:

I suspect we have significantly more than six cases, with the low official number simply the consequence of the very limited/targeting testing to date.

The travel restrictions will be helpful in slowing the spread down, but don't make the mistake of thinking they will contain it. We have Covid-19 in the country and it will spread widely. Not if, but when, and how fast.

Our main focus now needs to be containment - ie. social distancing, banning large events, targeted school/area close downs. We need to do this to try and minimise our health system being overloaded from an early peak. And look out for, and after, our elderly as they are most vulnerable.

If we have significant more than 6 cases, I would have expected new cases daily, which I actually was. Sure, we can go ahead and carry out the measures you suggest, I would have no problem with that, although personally, I wouldn't. We would also need to remove pubic transport, force anyone who can work from to to do that, so that the crowded CBD is less so. 1 person per elevator etc. There are many issues to manage its not just a large event. Buy I think thats all too soon. Every case we have is imported. I would have thought that in the many many weeks this has gone on, we would have "hope its just the flu" people going to get checked, but that hasn't happened. More than ever, anyone with a flu like issue would be super concerned and get medically checked.

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#2438404 15-Mar-2020 09:24

Tectonic: How the Government's coronavirus bombshell will send shock waves through the economy

I think this is irresponsible. The effects of the virus in NZ is already being felt, nothing to do with yesterdays measures. Its like it was all pretty good, but after yesterday, all of a sudden, shockwaves will happen, They are already happening. Tourists aren't coming here, already news on that well before now, and the effects. Same with exports of marine catches.

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#2438406 15-Mar-2020 09:29

Fred99:

The imbalance in Wuhan seemed to correlate with the very high number of smokers amongst Chinese men - and very low number of smokers amongst women. I don't believe that's the case in Italy where smoking rates are much lower overall, and there's far less difference in smoking rate in men and women. Unless perhaps there's a correlation between ex-smokers (who quit long ago), a prior imbalance in smoking by gender (possible I guess - and probably true for many countries incl NZ, I think 30 years ago more men tended to smoke, and when they did, they probably smoked more). However it seems quite likely that the imbalance isn't to do with smoking - or at least it's not the main reason.

Lol i was attending a respiratory physician conference where the lead speaker was an italian professor. he was a chain smoker.

https://www.ozy.com/acumen/why-do-italian-doctors-smoke-so-much/86237/

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#2438407 15-Mar-2020 09:31

tdgeek: Tectonic: How the Government's coronavirus bombshell will send shock waves through the economy

I think this is irresponsible. The effects of the virus in NZ is already being felt, nothing to do with yesterdays measures. Its like it was all pretty good, but after yesterday, all of a sudden, shockwaves will happen, They are already happening. Tourists aren't coming here, already news on that well before now, and the effects. Same with exports of marine catches.

I don't think you can overstate the effect of this. Whatever tourism businesses that were marginal before are basically done now.

However, I think the bigger shock will come from the macro-economic picture, with huge parts of Europe closed for business and America getting closer to Italy's trajectory for spread. The global money machine slowing down will have ramifications for almost literally everything.

Against that backdrop, the tourism changes PM Ardern has announced are only have the effects that are going to come anyway - it's just giving us control over it (and because it's the Govt doing it, increasing the chance of assistance with the economic slowdown transition).

In ten days the RBNZ has an OCR announcement, hard to pick anything but a massive cut at the moment.

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#2438408 15-Mar-2020 09:42

Batman:

Fred99:

The imbalance in Wuhan seemed to correlate with the very high number of smokers amongst Chinese men - and very low number of smokers amongst women. I don't believe that's the case in Italy where smoking rates are much lower overall, and there's far less difference in smoking rate in men and women. Unless perhaps there's a correlation between ex-smokers (who quit long ago), a prior imbalance in smoking by gender (possible I guess - and probably true for many countries incl NZ, I think 30 years ago more men tended to smoke, and when they did, they probably smoked more). However it seems quite likely that the imbalance isn't to do with smoking - or at least it's not the main reason.

Lol i was attending a respiratory physician conference where the lead speaker was an italian professor. he was a chain smoker.

https://www.ozy.com/acumen/why-do-italian-doctors-smoke-so-much/86237/

This from 2009 study in Italy:

The smoking prevalence overall was 23.5% (27.9% among males and 19.3% among females).

The gender imbalance is far smaller than in China where ~65% of men smoke, and hardly any women smoke.

The article you linked is "interesting" perhaps, but not really relevant.

tdgeek

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#2438409 15-Mar-2020 09:44

GV27:

tdgeek: Tectonic: How the Government's coronavirus bombshell will send shock waves through the economy

I think this is irresponsible. The effects of the virus in NZ is already being felt, nothing to do with yesterdays measures. Its like it was all pretty good, but after yesterday, all of a sudden, shockwaves will happen, They are already happening. Tourists aren't coming here, already news on that well before now, and the effects. Same with exports of marine catches.

I don't think you can overstate the effect of this. Whatever tourism businesses that were marginal before are basically done now.

However, I think the bigger shock will come from the macro-economic picture, with huge parts of Europe closed for business and America getting closer to Italy's trajectory for spread. The global money machine slowing down will have ramifications for almost literally everything.

Against that backdrop, the tourism changes PM Ardern has announced are only have the effects that are going to come anyway - it's just giving us control over it (and because it's the Govt doing it, increasing the chance of assistance with the economic slowdown transition).

In ten days the RBNZ has an OCR announcement, hard to pick anything but a massive cut at the moment.

I agree with all that. My point was that the media state that the announcement yesterday has changed everything. It hasn't. Everything bad that has happened to date has already happened and the more many bad things will happen, irregardless of yesterdays announcement.

The measures yesterday may well reduce internal disruption caused by Covid-19 spiralling out of control within NZ. The rest, and it will be big, is the global recession that we will have to bear.

OCR is currently 1% ? Not sure how that going to 0.5% would help much, we already used up that help :-) The Govt needs to target support to affected businesses/individuals, can't afford to throw money everywhere. It won't be an easy fix, the downturn will be here a long time. China getting back to production and allowing imports will be a big help

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#2438413 15-Mar-2020 09:53

GV27:

In ten days the RBNZ has an OCR announcement, hard to pick anything but a massive cut at the moment.

Probably - but like elsewhere we have created a global liquidity trap where there's not enough room to move interest rates to stimulate demand.

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#2438415 15-Mar-2020 09:57

Has anybody read or heard anything about what happens if a traveller who arrives into the country from tomorrow but attempts to fly back out again before the 14 day self isolation period is up?

Would they get stopped at the border?

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