2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2766629 25-Aug-2021 18:25

tdgeek:

NSW has settled down, 800 per day. But its hard to correlate that to us or anyone as there lockdown was a joke, /horsebolted, so its a different animal. Plus now they advocate forget the numbers just get vaccinated.

919 today, but there's no way a few days data shows whether or not they've "flattened the curve".

They need to. They've got 645 hospitalised, 113 in ICU, 40 on ventilators. With one more new case number doubling - which was happening every 8 days or so - they'd be on the path to inevitably exceeding ICU capacity.

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#2766631 25-Aug-2021 18:25

DS248:

The initial reason for plotting the data was Bloomfield's (repeated) claim that the growth in numbers was "not exponential".

As I (and now you) said, it is too early to tell (but yes the current trend is )

Comparison with NSW was an afterthought. Interesting though.

Stats are great, BUT. If cases rise from 1 to 4 that's massive, but it's only 4. But its also 400%. Its easy to get huge % from a low denominator, the % the last few days is not exponential. It's linear. If we had no lockdoen or a very lite lockdown, it would most certainly remain exponential despite a higher denominator. Thats what Covid Bell Curves do. I don't care about our Covid Bell Curve when its starts at 1, when there is no lockdown, I care about it once incubation and lockdown align.

tdgeek

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#2766633 25-Aug-2021 18:33

mattwnz:

Last time there were certain activities held that prolonged the lockdown, and resulting in new infection clusters appearing after lockdown . I think they are worried that will occur again reading between the lines.

I agree. Covid fatigue shouldn't be happening here yet. But in 2020 it was the few but newsworthy flouters, today they seem more populous. The Church gathering was a bit unlucky, totally legit and allowed, but wrong place wrong time. Amongst a very social community. I felt for them today in the presser what Dr A mentioned. We are either the team of 5 million or we are racist bashing Pasifika or we are flouting at rivers. We need to get a grip. I guess the next negative thing us Kiwis latch onto is bagging Aucklanders. I jest with any Pom mate about whinging poms, we need to look in the mirror. Told him that.

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#2766634 25-Aug-2021 18:35

Fred99:

919 today, but there's no way a few days data shows whether or not they've "flattened the curve".

They need to. They've got 645 hospitalised, 113 in ICU, 40 on ventilators. With one more new case number doubling - which was happening every 8 days or so - they'd be on the path to inevitably exceeding ICU capacity.

Ah, it seems they have hung around 800+ for a few days, might be 790 tomorrow or maybe 990. I think the curve is history there now? Vaccinate, that will solve everything?

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#2766636 25-Aug-2021 18:39

tdgeek:
1. Is 41 to 48 to 62 exponential?

Based on those 3 numbers and only those 3 numbers,

Yes

DS248

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#2766637 25-Aug-2021 18:41

tdgeek:

DS248:

...

Yes, just like in NSW and QLD

NSW has settled down, 800 per day. But its hard to correlate that to us or anyone as there lockdown was a joke, /horsebolted, so its a different animal. Plus now they advocate forget the numbers just get vaccinated.

NSW 917 for yesterday.

As I said, it will be very interesting to see our numbers over the next few days.

Yes, I expect (hope) they will start dropping off per QLD.

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#2766638 25-Aug-2021 18:49

DS248:

NSW 917 for yesterday.

As I said, it will be very interesting to see our numbers over the next few days.

Yes, I expect (hope) they will start dropping off per QLD.

I expect so. We need to know what are pre lockdown cases. Those will be exponential but also historic. Expected. IMO unimportant. What happens with cases that occur and were infected from lockdown is what matters.

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tdgeek

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#2766639 25-Aug-2021 18:54

Batman:
tdgeek:

1. Is 41 to 48 to 62 exponential?

Based on those 3 numbers and only those 3 numbers,

Yes

With a R0 value of 5, hard to see that. Especially when all of those three numbers will likely be pre lockdown infections. Uninhibited with an R0 of 5. When you have a base of 0 stats can say anything you like.

Oblivian

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#2766647 25-Aug-2021 19:25

Looks like the media attention called for a change. And it has been made

Fishing and whitebaiting

At Alert Level 4, recreational fishing and whitebaiting is not allowed, except for Māori customary fishing and food gathering. If you are fishing or whitebaiting for this reason, make sure you:

keep it local and stick to your household bubble
do not use a boat or go into the water to fish
keep 2 metres away from others
do not do anything that may expose you to danger, or require rescue services.

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#2766659 25-Aug-2021 20:05

10th school implicated, numerous new locations.

to be honest i find it hard to make sense of those listed locations to be of any use. hopefully people are not a tool like me can use the list and self isolate

""Test immediately and on or around day 5 after last exposure and continue to stay at home until you receive a negative day 5 test result.""

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-student-at-otahuhu-college-tests-positive-locations-of-interest-also-include-aut-student-accommodation-and-wellington-supermarket/LM6HVUMWFMKAZOWVNYDJKR6NW4/

ezbee

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#2766703 25-Aug-2021 20:48

Healthcare appears to be the limit, equipment may be easier to get than workers.

Victoria records 45 new local COVID-19 cases, workers flying in to bolster hospital network
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-25/victoria-melbourne-covid-cases-pfizer-vaccine-available/100404804

""
Victoria will fly in 350 medical staff from overseas to ease the pressure on its weary health system, as doctors warn hospital staffing plans are urgently needed to prepare for the next phase of the pandemic.
""
Medical workers remain exempt from most bans and between March 20 last year and July 31 this year, 2,096 exemptions were approved for medical workers travelling to Australia.
""

Oblivian

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#2766712 25-Aug-2021 21:00

Valid to some here

Police want times/details of the A.V drops

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-had-an-anti-vax-pamphlet-tell-police/WMYX3J4A44BKG5EX77T7YBWTHY/

Geektastic

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#2766727 25-Aug-2021 21:33

Why is it unsafe to fish or whitebait unless you're exercising Maori customary rights?!

There's no logic to that at all. It's either safe or it isn't: the reason you're doing it doesn't alter that at all.

Scott3

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#2766728 25-Aug-2021 21:35

tdgeek:

Scott3:

Actual order is here:

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2021/0210/latest/whole.html#LMS536774

Politicians & covid-19 website seems to often either over simplify, or get it outright wrong. Police can only enforce the order, not what politicians say at press conferences...

You will see under section 16 (e), "other recreation" is allowed, given the listed conditions are met.

Thanks

16e

to undertake exercise or other recreation if—

(I) it is done in an outdoor place appropriate for that kind of exercise or recreation that is readily accessible (including by using their vehicle) from their home or place of residence; and

(ii) it is done in compliance with the requirements that relate to physical distancing (see clause 17) and the prohibition against gathering in outdoor places (see clause 21); and

(iii) it does not involve swimming, surfing, scuba-diving, water-based activities involving boating, sailing boats, motorised craft, or motorised equipment, hunting in motorised vehicles, tramping, or flying manned aircraft; and

(iv) it does not involve any other activities that expose the participant to danger or may require search and rescue services:

Whitebaiting is covered. You are setting nets in the water, and white poles. In a flowing river.

I think that is quite a stretch.

With 16 e (iii), you omitted to bold two words which impact the meaning: "water-based activities involving boating". Clearly shore based white-baiting / fishing isn't covered under this clause.

16 e (iv) is a super vague catch all. The reality is that any activity exposes the participant to risk, and my require search and rescue services. I could be struck by lighting in my walk to the park, or end up needing rescued from a giant soak hole that opens up. One could validly argue that whitebaiting / shore fishing has a higher risk profile, based on past incidents, but the question at what level of odds this should kick in is one for the lawyers / courts... Clearly parliament didn't intend for the clause to prevent my park walk due to lighting risk... It's possible the police wouldn't want to enforce a clause where the threshold isn't clearly defined.

I note whitebaiting / fishing had been added to the covid-19 web-page as a not allowed activity for the general public. Wonder if we will see to order changed to add this explicitly like swimming, surfing & scuba diving.

[edit] - note that section 16 (f) "Māori customary rights to fishing and food" explicitly allows fishing & food gathering subject to conditions. Identially worded clauses (iii) and (iv) to section 16 (e) are used, so it seems that those clauses were not intended to block the likes of fishing from shore. - Assume there will be an order change at some point to cover recreational fishing.

Scott3

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#2766731 25-Aug-2021 21:41

Geektastic: Why is it unsafe to fish or whitebait unless you're exercising Maori customary rights?!

There's no logic to that at all. It's either safe or it isn't: the reason you're doing it doesn't alter that at all.

The order explicitly allows "Limited customary purposes"

Looks like the government want's to prohibit recreational fishing and white-baiting without impacting on the practices they have already decided to explicitly allow.

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