2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2776738 12-Sep-2021 10:43

vexxxboy:
Oblivian:

I can't help but think there is still some very active inter mingling family clusters going on. There's no way these people should be still fronting up this late postive with no known link or apparent LoI.

Either there is (and they are lying or very forgetful) or it's still rampant somewhere and people aren't doing all they can like level 4 is meant to, to stop it spreading.

People are the host. People are the problem (despite words that the virus is the problem). People are the solution.

the info is the person at Middlemore was a gang member and he wasnt telling the police anything . I doubt very much that the gangs have shut down their drug operations and are still selling and delivering around Auckland and i doubt very much they are telling authorities where they have been. you can see the problem.

Ah. Team of 5 million almost beat delta. But they forgot about the gangs of Auckland. smh

MadEngineer

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#2776751 12-Sep-2021 11:03

sbiddle:

A couple of quite interesting things I read and watched today -

First up the weekly CDC report which has some pretty revealing data showing Pfizer vs Moderns vs Janssen performance. It really does show how superior Moderna is against Delta - 95% effectiveness against hospitalisation for Moderna, 80% for Pfizer, and 65% for Janssen over the June - August period. So much recent data is really showing that Pfizer is certainly not the gold standard vaccine we were once lead to believe it was. This really is starting to show flaws in NZ's strategy of only opting for a single vaccine because everybody is now exposed in the same way to the shortcomings.

Second is a great ABC Australia documentary about how they lost the battle against Delta, something that should be a wakeup call for those in NZ who are just assuming we are going to beat it here and be back to zero cases in the next few weeks https://youtu.be/M9MPXCpyCnY

Good video. [size=1]Quoting something from four pages back? Worth it [/size]

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

ezbee

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#2776804 12-Sep-2021 11:47

Australia shows we should just give up ?
Our level 4 is nothing like Australian restrictions, nothing like the amount of mixing, no browsing Bunnings etc.

Gangs just mean it takes a bit longer, certainty activities are reduced under level 4, its bending R value.
Gangs and misery a match made in hell. Evangelicals with Motorcycles and more dodgy activities if you will.
An extra week and it may look quite different.

I think the rest of the country will have a say in Auckland giving up, they will not want to join us.
So do they want to give up on their level 2 or future level 1 with no Covid ?

Independent South Island ?

tdgeek

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#2776829 12-Sep-2021 12:06

I think its going quite ok. Peaked around 90 cases, many of which were pre lockdown and self infected in a closed household. Always get some form of real CT, but the numbers have all rolled back. The infectious in the community % is now getting very high, but the volume is low. 10 of those in a city of 1.7 million, when L4 is in place will still continue to choke the virus as it struggles to find hosts. I hear that surveillance testing is now a thing? They need to ramp that up as the people arent testing much now. The problem and reason for a long tail is that some people become high hanging fruit. but even then, lockdown helps that.

The next 7 days will tell more

tdgeek

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#2776830 12-Sep-2021 12:09

ezbee:

I think the rest of the country will have a say in Auckland giving up, they will not want to join us.
So do they want to give up on their level 2 or future level 1 with no Covid ?

Independent South Island ?

Thats a tricky topic. Same applies in reverse if the outbreak was in Wellington. We dont really want to drop to a situation of annoyed Aucklanders (rightly so) and cocky everyone else.

heavenlywild

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#2776836 12-Sep-2021 12:18

A number of random people turning up at Middlemore tells me one thing: Delta is spreading and we are only seeing the tip of the ice berg.

I don't want to sound like a pessimist but it doesn't look good.

Testing is good only if the right people get tested.

There's many reasons why people don't. They are afraid of police due to their backgrounds, no money for fuel, need to work, worried about testing positive and not being able to work, no rego... etc.

Ge0rge

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#2776837 12-Sep-2021 12:22

heavenlywild: A number of random people turning up at Middlemore tells me one thing: Delta is spreading and we are only seeing the tip of the ice berg.

I don't want to sound like a pessimist but it doesn't look good.

The waste water testing results, fortunately, tell a different story.

Samsung

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GV27

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#2776843 12-Sep-2021 12:51

Ge0rge:

The waste water testing results, fortunately, tell a different story.

Worth remembering how far this outbreak got before the waste-water picked it up in the first place.

Oblivian

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#2776847 12-Sep-2021 13:01

We don't like Sunday standups

I feel a teacher telling off ahead again

Oblivian

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#2776858 12-Sep-2021 13:29

Turns out less tellings off, more reassurance of closing loops

I notice KFC has taken a different line this time. (Not wanting same media attention?)

No in store purchases other than ore-order online and watch for the number. (Perhaps no face to face) Drive through at some stores only and pickup. Vs next door at maccas being rather packed.

GV27

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#2776866 12-Sep-2021 13:44

That was a rollercoaster of a presser:

We have unlinked cases of concern and 40 new exposure events, but there's no widespread transmission in the community.

Honestly I need a traffic light system at this point, but I have a feeling we won't be back to L3 before October.

tdgeek

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#2776869 12-Sep-2021 13:54

Bloomfield said of 16 sub-clusters, there are only 3 that could possibly see further transmission outside of households etc.

As long as good testing is maintained, it would help officials confirm there weren't ongoing chains of transmission.

He said they know a lot more than they did yesterday morning and they will know a lot more tomorrow morning.

At last now they arent spending a lot of time of huge numbers of contacts, now its the same time on what appears to be a very low number of investigative paths. A large spider web vs potentially 3 bits at the end of the web

ezbee

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#2776873 12-Sep-2021 13:58

When you have Families of 9 or 10, do you count unlinked cases or unlinked clusters ?
Looks like an extra week and see the progression.

Well it does look like Middlemore, indeed all Hospitals and Urgent Doctors etc would be good testing surveillance sites.
If they would just do the responsible thing and test everyone that comes in ?
With saliva testing this should be much easier ?

Wastewater testing certainly, and making that more finer grained to cope with trickier delta.

Better cheaper Rapid Tests are needed, some of the better USA ones are $25 USD or so for two which is too high.
Very low cost UK one that you can get free on request in UK is Ok for pulling out most infective, but misses a lot apparently
It would change how we deal with pandemic with high vaccination rate and good rapid tests, that we can afford.

The U.S. Needs an Operation Warp Speed for Rapid COVID-19 Testing
https://time.com/6096528/operation-warp-speed-covid-19-testing/

Of course what we can do now is vaccinate, and vaccinate, I have some work on relative in this area, gently pushing that along.
Having not turned into a magnetic tool holder myself.

DS248

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#2776929 12-Sep-2021 14:08

Quick update on chart comparing the decay of cases (Delta under L4) vs previous outbreaks here and in AU (QLD = Delta, NZ Aug20 and Vic Jun20, pre-Delta under ~L3)

Early days but current downward trend appears be occurring at almost exactly the same exponential decay rate as those earlier outbreaks.

If we continue to follow this trend, there will still be 5 cases/day on average. And 2 weeks beyond that, still 2/day on average.

At least a further two weeks before Auckland out of L4, with at least a further two in L3?

(all assuming it does not flare up again per NSW Jun21 & Vic Aug21).

Note: Again, left my original centre red line there for now but will probably remove it in future. Added blue line with same slope as the others 'eye-balled' to fit the current downward trend.

mattwnz

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#2776934 12-Sep-2021 14:27

GV27:

Ge0rge:

The waste water testing results, fortunately, tell a different story.

Worth remembering how far this outbreak got before the waste-water picked it up in the first place.

Wouldn't it have been picking up cases in MIQ anyway. IMO this as always a flaw. They reckon it leaked from MIQ about 5 days before it was picked up.

One of the problems seems to be that contact tracing is too slow, not that these unknown cases aren't linked to existing the clusters. We have to remember that some people have bad memories. There will be flouters etc too. It is the main reason we couldn't trust people to self isolate at home, and required returning travelers to go into MIQ, as too many didn't and contributed to the first outbreak.

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