2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2776936 12-Sep-2021 14:38

mattwnz: They reckon it leaked from MIQ about 5 days before it was picked up.

Cool story, bro. If you've got anything to back that up, there's a Ministry of Health and a regional Public Health Service that would love to hear from you.

mattwnz

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#2776937 12-Sep-2021 14:39

ezbee:

Australia shows we should just give up ?
Our level 4 is nothing like Australian restrictions, nothing like the amount of mixing, no browsing Bunnings etc.

Gangs just mean it takes a bit longer, certainty activities are reduced under level 4, its bending R value.
Gangs and misery a match made in hell. Evangelicals with Motorcycles and more dodgy activities if you will.
An extra week and it may look quite different.

I think the rest of the country will have a say in Auckland giving up, they will not want to join us.
So do they want to give up on their level 2 or future level 1 with no Covid ?

Independent South Island ?

It would be like giving up in a race with the finish line in sight. I do think the MOH or goverenmtn should be giving a lot more details about these cases, so the public knows why they are occurring. Is it due to privacy?

mattwnz

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#2776938 12-Sep-2021 14:40

Ge0rge:
mattwnz: They reckon it leaked from MIQ about 5 days before it was picked up.

Cool story, bro. If you've got anything to back that up, there's a Ministry of Health and a regional Public Health Service that would love to hear from you.

That is what one of the experts said in the media based on the timeline of the first case and the other cases that then got detected, and then the genome being traced back to a case who returned from Oz who was in MIQ. Look it up. It couldn't have been much longer because then there would have been cases in hospital earlier.

Batman

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#2776946 12-Sep-2021 15:03

DS248:
If we continue to follow this trend, there will still be 5 cases/day on average. And 2 weeks beyond that, still 2/day on average.

At least a further two weeks before Auckland out of L4, with at least a further two in L3

The only graph that matters is the one printed on PM's A3 paper tomorrow given to her by the Advisers.

Is decision day tomorrow 4pm?

Batman

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#2776956 12-Sep-2021 15:08

Essential worker flies out of Akl to holiday home

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300404801/covid19-live-auckland-couple-crossed-border-and-flew-to-wanaka-for-holiday-20-new-community-delta-cases-in-auckland

Handle9

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#2776957 12-Sep-2021 15:09

mattwnz:
Ge0rge:

Cool story, bro. If you've got anything to back that up, there's a Ministry of Health and a regional Public Health Service that would love to hear from you.

That is what one of the experts said in the media based on the timeline of the first case and the other cases that then got detected, and then the genome being traced back to a case who returned from Oz who was in MIQ. Look it up. It couldn't have been much longer because then there would have been cases in hospital earlier.

You're somewhat missing the point.

Fred99

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#2776960 12-Sep-2021 15:14

sbiddle:

As somebody who still spends probably 10-15 hours every week reading research papers on Covid I have also read plenty of criticisms of the paper.

I suggest you stop wasting your time.

You also don't know anything about me - so keep your opinions to yourself about my "expertise" or lack of it. I am very careful to not misrepresent myself as an authority.

You regularly trigger my BS detector in this forum with your political bias, whether you deliberately or ignorantly posted your antivax comments doesn't matter. That simple fact that you did does.

It was a very dumb assertion, stating something as fact when the paper is full of obvious flaws - some of which had been covered already in the comments, but you failed to even acknowledge any of that.

It's serious bullsh*t to be spreading here. Disappointing in the least.

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Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

GV27

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#2777016 12-Sep-2021 15:26

Batman: Essential worker flies out of Akl to holiday home

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300404801/covid19-live-auckland-couple-crossed-border-and-flew-to-wanaka-for-holiday-20-new-community-delta-cases-in-auckland

Astonishing. Hopefully there is no diversion, discharge without conviction or name suppression.

sbiddle

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#2777021 12-Sep-2021 15:35

Fred99:

It's serious bullsh*t to be spreading here. Disappointing in the least.

OK so the Immunisation Advisory Centre advise for vaccinations and health professionals is all lies and should be retracted?

We've had 32 cases here as of latest CARM reporting and a single death. It is a very serious issue.

cshwone

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#2777027 12-Sep-2021 15:45

Edited due formatting issues with table I attempted to post from https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-25.asp

There have been 11000 adverse reports to the vaccine and the 32 quoted above and in the table for Myocarditis/pericarditis isn't really that significant. You could look at the classes and numbers and pick say, Haemorrhage with 45 instances reported and say that is very very serious too.

Fred99

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#2777031 12-Sep-2021 16:04

sbiddle:

OK so the Immunisation Advisory Centre advise for vaccinations and health professionals is all lies and should be retracted?

All vaccines carry some risks, and side effects are common.

Medsafe/MoH, US CDC, NHS etc are monitoring incidence of that (and other side effects) and their advice is consistent, ie:

Yes. CDC continues to recommend that everyone aged 12 years and older get vaccinated for COVID-19. The known risks of COVID-19 illness and its related, possibly severe complications, such as long-term health problems, hospitalization, and even death, far outweigh the potential risks of having a rare adverse reaction to vaccination, including the possible risk of myocarditis or pericarditis.

Last thing anybody needs is someone pretending to be an authority because they read "lots of papers" actively undermining a global public health response by spreading FUD. It's just bloody stupid.

Put a sock in it. Please.

sbiddle

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#2777044 12-Sep-2021 16:22

cshwone:

Edited due formatting issues with table I attempted to post from https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-25.asp

There have been 11000 adverse reports to the vaccine and the 32 quoted above and in the table for Myocarditis/pericarditis isn't really that significant. You could look at the classes and numbers and pick say, Haemorrhage with 45 instances reported and say that is very very serious too.

To determine whether something is of concern, the number of cases need to be looked at in the comparison to usual number of background occurances of an issue. For many of the reported issues the numbers simply aren't out of the ordinary - so don't raise any concerns.

Earlier on this year when we started seeing blood clotting issues with AZ many experts weren't concerned and many downplayed the issue until the numbers of cases simply became so great that it became clear there was an issue.

We know that first concerns about this originated from Israel where the number of cases of myocarditis particularly in males under 30 saw a sharp increase earlier in the year from usual averages which is why this is now disclosed in the safety data. We know here in New Zealand that there are normally around 100 reported incidents of myocarditis per year, so need to really see a total number at the end of the year to see if we have had a significant jump in occurances.

Geektastic

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#2777048 12-Sep-2021 16:31

GV27:
Batman: Essential worker flies out of Akl to holiday home

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300404801/covid19-live-auckland-couple-crossed-border-and-flew-to-wanaka-for-holiday-20-new-community-delta-cases-in-auckland

Astonishing. Hopefully there is no diversion, discharge without conviction or name suppression.

I'd give them 5 years no parole as an example.

cshwone

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#2777054 12-Sep-2021 16:43

sbiddle:

cshwone:

Edited due formatting issues with table I attempted to post from https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-25.asp

There have been 11000 adverse reports to the vaccine and the 32 quoted above and in the table for Myocarditis/pericarditis isn't really that significant. You could look at the classes and numbers and pick say, Haemorrhage with 45 instances reported and say that is very very serious too.

To determine whether something is of concern, the number of cases need to be looked at in the comparison to usual number of background occurances of an issue. For many of the reported issues the numbers simply aren't out of the ordinary - so don't raise any concerns.

Earlier on this year when we started seeing blood clotting issues with AZ many experts weren't concerned and many downplayed the issue until the numbers of cases simply became so great that it became clear there was an issue.

We know that first concerns about this originated from Israel where the number of cases of myocarditis particularly in males under 30 saw a sharp increase earlier in the year from usual averages which is why this is now disclosed in the safety data. We know here in New Zealand that there are normally around 100 reported incidents of myocarditis per year, so need to really see a total number at the end of the year to see if we have had a significant jump in occurances.

You are really coming across badly here. Yes there are adverse effects to any vaccine but given the number that have been administered in our tiny corner of the globe those numbers are really quite insignificant against the overall population size never mind the world at large. As Fred99 said in his quote from the CDC the risks of not being vaccinated far outweigh the risks of being vaccinated.

All you are really doing is spreading fear wrapped up in a pseudo scientific manner.

Fred99

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#2777064 12-Sep-2021 16:51

sbiddle:

To determine whether something is of concern, the number of cases need to be looked at in the comparison to usual number of background occurances of an issue. For many of the reported issues the numbers simply aren't out of the ordinary - so don't raise any concerns.

Earlier on this year when we started seeing blood clotting issues with AZ many experts weren't concerned and many downplayed the issue until the numbers of cases simply became so great that it became clear there was an issue.

We know that first concerns about this originated from Israel where the number of cases of myocarditis particularly in males under 30 saw a sharp increase earlier in the year from usual averages which is why this is now disclosed in the safety data. We know here in New Zealand that there are normally around 100 reported incidents of myocarditis per year, so need to really see a total number at the end of the year to see if we have had a significant jump in occurances.

If that's a half-baked attempt to back away from your comment:

"Pfizer in kids is still risky business, especially with the Pfizer myocarditis issue which is a very real problem in boys."

I'm unconvinced.

I really think you should stop trying to outwit experts - and put a sock in it.

For example, the background incidence of myocarditis you cite as "around 100" is probably not true. That's possibly the number "hospitalised".

FWIW I know the person who was (AFAIK) the first case of myocarditis attributed to mRNA vaccine in NZ (this was about 4 months ago. He wasn't hospitalised. He had minor symptoms, when I spoke to him about two weeks after it was diagnosed, he was feeling fine / fully recovered without any interventional treatment, enjoying a beer. The major inconvenience / annoyance to him was being told to "take it easy" when he had things he wanted to do.

I refrained from sharing that anecdote here months ago, firstly because it's statistically meaningless, but mainly because it's fodder for anti-vaxx trolls.

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