2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2780629 19-Sep-2021 14:07

On2or3wheels:

The media/PM confirmed my theory, families have been mingling. Some of this could of course be around looking after children but something will have to change or we'll never get out of this until everyone is fully vaccinated.

That was my feel. BUT when they say its less of an issue I agree wth that. L4 is the reason why those transmissions would stay in the home(s) Id rather catch it from my Aunty paying a clandestine visit, than mysteriously. IMO that reduces significantly the real dangers in Auckland.

GV27

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#2780630 19-Sep-2021 14:07

I'm starting to think more and more this a strategic breather to preserve the effectiveness of lockdowns with the general public.

In some ways it makes sense. There's a huge spending rush post-lockdown, people would have time to shore up their businesses, etc.

I think we'll get a huge caveat on this L3, which is 'use this time wisely'.

tdgeek

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#2780632 19-Sep-2021 14:11

GV27:

I'm starting to think more and more this a strategic breather to preserve the effectiveness of lockdowns with the general public.

In some ways it makes sense. There's a huge spending rush post-lockdown, people would have time to shore up their businesses, etc.

I think we'll get a huge caveat on this L3, which is 'use this time wisely'.

If mingling households are the cause, as stated here just now, that explains a lot. The "real" cases may well be very low single digits. The "we expect more cases due to households" Ive heard in the last 4 or 5 days, clearly knew this mingling was a problem.

Oblivian

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#2780633 19-Sep-2021 14:14

Yeah. Is my thoughts also when I mentioned previously 3 is now 4 with click and collect (and other rules) anyway so quite status quo (if actually adhered to)

In which case there would likely need to be some changes to ensure it stays that way. No doubt. Potential slimming down on what can open/is considered to be able to trade with CnC and so on. Staff operating those businesses not able to follow standard bubble mixing and so forth.

Obviously in-home person to person transfer is the chronic cause here when you are less likely to avoid others, not follow strict hygiene and so on.

Whilst in public settings, that still remains fairly front and centre between 3/4 (and for some even in 2 given our requirements)

Geektastic

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#2780634 19-Sep-2021 14:18

I was reading today of the vaccine measures now in place in Italy.

Anyone thinking we are being draconian here should have a look. Essentially, no vaccine, no anything. You can attend Mass and go shopping. That is it. No trains or planes. No restaurants or pubs. No sports events or cultural museum visits. And no going to work.

"On Thursday, Draghi's government of national unity issued a new decree extending 'Il Green Pass' to the entire workforce: 23 million Italians. This will come into effect on 15 October.

The unvaccinated have already been banned since 6 August from most indoor public places such as bars, restaurants and gyms, plus many outdoor ones such as football stadiums and the Colosseum. And since 1 September from planes, ferries, inter-regional trains and coaches, plus universities (staff and students) and schools (staff only). The vaccine has been compulsory for health workers since April."

The Spectator

mattwnz

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#2780648 19-Sep-2021 14:33

On2or3wheels:

The media/PM confirmed my theory, families have been mingling. Some of this could of course be around looking after children but something will have to change or we'll never get out of this until everyone is fully vaccinated.

I couldn't believe my ears when I heard that, and although many of us probably suspected it, they have been aware of this. Each time a bubble breaks, it resets the 14 day clock. The problem is that many of these would likely be in lower social economic areas with lots of people living in each household, and many will be essential workers who need to work, because there has been no government helicopter payments to help everyone. They need to get a lot tougher IMO with larger fines. $4k fines for leaving level 4 IMO is a wet bus ticket when compared to NZ house prices which now average 1 million dollars. If they drop to level 3 on monday, I think many people will not be happy.

Even with high vaccination our health system wouldn't cope, hospitals struggled this year with just winter illnesses. They announced some funding today, but nothing for hospitals and increasing capacity.

mattwnz

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#2780650 19-Sep-2021 14:40

heavenlywild: Personally it's a sign from the govt that this can't be eliminated unless we lock down for months on end.

It's to buy time so more people can get the jab before cases inevitably rise.

Under level 3 cases will rise if we still haven't eliminated it and it doesn't seem we can even by next Tues.

It can be, as they have eliminated delta in China and Taiwan, but there are too many flouters by the looks of it that keep resetting the 14 day clock. NZs health system can't cope with this winters illnesses, and is struggling with just this latest outbreak in Auckland, requiring extra staff from other parts of NZ. The unvaccinated, as well as breakthrough cases will put a huge strain on resources.

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mattwnz

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#2780652 19-Sep-2021 14:43

tdgeek:

GV27:

I'm starting to think more and more this a strategic breather to preserve the effectiveness of lockdowns with the general public.

In some ways it makes sense. There's a huge spending rush post-lockdown, people would have time to shore up their businesses, etc.

I think we'll get a huge caveat on this L3, which is 'use this time wisely'.

If mingling households are the cause, as stated here just now, that explains a lot. The "real" cases may well be very low single digits. The "we expect more cases due to households" Ive heard in the last 4 or 5 days, clearly knew this mingling was a problem.

Which means level 4 hasn't been adhered to by some people. So it isn't a case of Delta being too hard to eliminate, but flouters letting the team of 5 million down. But I guess the media won't focus on this.

GV27

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#2780653 19-Sep-2021 14:48

mattwnz:

Which means level 4 hasn't been adhered to by some people. So it isn't a case of Delta being too hard to eliminate, but flouters letting the team of 5 million down. But I guess the media won't focus on this.

The police helicopter has been out almost every night out here under lockdown. It is out every night when there isn't a lockdown. At some point you are going to get into the part of the community that generally don't give a damn about the community and do what they want when they want. And then the game is over.

ezbee

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#2780657 19-Sep-2021 14:57

No update on LOI's showing last update 18th, so maybe have to wait till tomorrow ?

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/contact-tracing-covid-19/covid-19-contact-tracing-locations-interest

martyyn

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#2780665 19-Sep-2021 15:12

Oblivian:

Yeah. Is my thoughts also when I mentioned previously 3 is now 4 with click and collect (and other rules) anyway so quite status quo (if actually adhered to)

My fear would be if it turned out to be anything like it was around here. L3 was L1 but with the shops closed, certainly not L4 with click and collect.

There was very little mask usage and people we're congregating and mixing everywhere.

Mask usage has been far better under L2 and I assume that's because people have gotten used to wearing them at work and in the shops. But L3 was very much like a holiday rather than a Covid Level.

Oblivian

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#2780668 19-Sep-2021 15:19

martyyn:

My fear would be if it turned out to be anything like it was around here. L3 was L1 but with the shops closed, certainly not L4 with click and collect.

There was very little mask usage and people we're congregating and mixing everywhere.

Mask usage has been far better under L2 and I assume that's because people have gotten used to wearing them at work and in the shops. But L3 was very much like a holiday rather than a Covid Level.

Grant you that. There was also a similar and sudden 'FREEDOOMMMMM!!' like change in chch. Less passing like ships on the footpath and so one. Obviously the relief of not going to likely be pinged for travelling. I nearly got collected during 3 many a time from cars diving into carparks I was walking in to pass others on the footpath taking it up (while clearly being different bubbles out for a walk discussing their week)

If an undetected case had made it outside Akl. We would likely be in a similar boat.

On2or3wheels

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#2780670 19-Sep-2021 15:21

tdgeek:

That was my feel. BUT when they say its less of an issue I agree wth that. L4 is the reason why those transmissions would stay in the home(s) Id rather catch it from my Aunty paying a clandestine visit, than mysteriously. IMO that reduces significantly the real dangers in Auckland.

Umm, probably not. If the houses are mixing to look after children it's probably because someone is going to work. It was confirmed by the PM that there has been transfer within essential work places, just not supermarkets.

Scott3

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#2780673 19-Sep-2021 15:29

Interesting press conference

To me what matters is:

Overall case numbers: Proxy to hospital load in 10 or so days time.
Number of unlinked cases: Proxy for undetected community transmission.
Number of people with exposure events or as NSW report in the community / not isolation for their infectious period: Proxy to future spread.

2 is staying stubbornly above zero.

3 is really important. It is reported on with one days lag via the MOH press release. 6 (30%) of yesterdays reported cases were infectious in the community. The day before that was 11 (68%). Again well above zero.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/24-community-cases-covid-19-more-50000-vaccines-administered-yesterday

The dialog that it has a long tail, but we are nearly on top of it doesn't really align with the metrics. Seems to be setting up for a drop to level 3.

The way I see it, is that we can't keep going like this, it's not fast enough to eliminate for Auckland's pachents.

I see too main routes forward:

Go up to level 5. 1 week only. Super strict lockdown. No leaving the house for exercise or recreation. Plus much fewer workplaces allowed to open. No distribution centers packing air fryers, no lunchbox factories, No production of non-perishables where more than 1 week is held in stock. Crazy push on testing. Massive push on enforcement (should be pritty easy to enforce if there is a 24/7 ban on being in public other than supermarket, pharmacy, testing & medical trips, and essential work). Make it clear that afterwards we are dropping to level 3 regardless of what happens. Delta moves fast, might be enough to get on top of it given how close we are.
Drop to level 3, hope for the best, but accept that failing to eliminate is likely.

heavenlywild: Tomorrow is the official start of the end of elimination.

I'm somewhat glad. Cases will increase but more people will be motivated to get the jab.

It seems pritty clear that it is not going to be official. The press conference today made it pritty clear that the officials want to push the narrative that we have pretty much got this under control, and we no longer need level 4 to continue to have cases drop in an environment with decent vaccination. Numbers don't quite align with this.

I suspect the officials have decided to keep pushing the narrative of success and just see what happens over the next fortnight. If we do eliminate they bask in success. If not, they can say oh well, we tried, and now we need to live with the virus like NSW and victoria have decided to do. But by this stage the cat is out of the bag and there is no going back.

Saying we are going to give up on elimination tomorrow would go down very poorly with 2/3rds of NZ's population who are currently living in relative freedom with no detected covid-19 in their communities.

mattwnz

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#2780690 19-Sep-2021 16:03

On2or3wheels:
tdgeek:

That was my feel. BUT when they say its less of an issue I agree wth that. L4 is the reason why those transmissions would stay in the home(s) Id rather catch it from my Aunty paying a clandestine visit, than mysteriously. IMO that reduces significantly the real dangers in Auckland.

Umm, probably not. If the houses are mixing to look after children it's probably because someone is going to work. It was confirmed by the PM that there has been transfer within essential work places, just not supermarkets.

This is why helicopter payments were needed along with paymentsto those who are close contacts in certain households. . A lot of people who are essential workers can't afford not to go to work. I think they needed to do a lot more with this. It isn't logical for Auckland to drop a level and if it does, it won't have learnt from the error that was made last time when they dropped to level 3 too early. NZ has no choice currently apart from elimination due to low vaccinations and a poor health system that has had years of under investment. We don't have the luxury of a good health system like most countries have, who can afford to live with the virus circulating in the community. This is why some of the experts have said that NZ needs vaccination rates in the high 90s. .

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