2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2439256 16-Mar-2020 13:44

MikeB4:

@ResponseMediaNZ I am aware of that, however New Zealand does not have a bottomless pit of financial reserves. The government for now has a surplus of circa $7Billion and a debt level of circa 19% GDP but that will change rapidly. The government simply cannot support every business and in my opinion should concentrate on keeping the essential industries and services running and those business that support them. EG transport, energy, communications, health etc. Sadly there will be business casualties as with any deep recession and the government has safety nets in place to assist individuals.

Your opinion, I dont agree at all. Thats fine. I have no idea why we are having a BCP tomorrow. DHB doesnt need to tell us what theirs is, neither does Genesis or Mainfreight. I thought we lived in a social welfare country, and where the small businesses are actually a far greater part of our economy than the corporates in terms of the economy. And no its not about giving free cash to every business, its about helpong out, in various ways, some business sectors that have been affected by the virus

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#2439259 16-Mar-2020 13:49

eracode:

dogstar001:

Think the big question which will be answered over the next couple of weeks is will we start to see internal community spread of the virus.

The WHO is already classifying NZ as a country that has ‘local transmission’ (i.e. internal community spread).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200313-sitrep-53-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=adb3f72_2

I understand the local transmission case is already known,. It was apparently a family member in the house that contracted it from someone who had come back from Iran or Italy. I don't believe the family member who gave it to them was counted in the official numbers as they had recovered by the time they were tested.

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#2439261 16-Mar-2020 13:55

@tdgeek social welfare is about individuals and families it's not about supporting businesses. There will be big demands in vote social welfare and health over the next 6 moths plus that will drive our surplus into deficit. The governments debt will rise and GDP will plummet as result the financial pot will become less and less. The priority will be health, welfare and essential services. This is a similar scenario that played out in the 80s with the huge industry reforms and huge job loses.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2439263 16-Mar-2020 13:57

GV27:

Community transmission is a case that cannot be tied back to an established case; e.g. one where someone has it but with no connection to anyone who has traveled. I am not aware if we have had that but it is a safe bet that we probably do.

Im sure we may well do, although as Frankv said we maybe should have seen them in ED by now

When we have 8 cases, and no visible comunity transmission its a nice feeling. Not smugness, but a realisation that we are doing a lot right, even though some of these werent always doing their bit right. We all know we all get CT, and when that happens, it will change everything. But at least we will know that we have 99.9% shut off imports. Thats one gate we almost will not need to worry about soon

Alert just came up, yippee. MoH will deport anyone not complying.

EDIT If no satisfactory isolation plans, deported on the next flight

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#2439264 16-Mar-2020 13:57

The government may either borrow or do quantitative easing or have another idea.

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#2439265 16-Mar-2020 14:02

tdgeek:

GV27:

Community transmission is a case that cannot be tied back to an established case; e.g. one where someone has it but with no connection to anyone who has traveled. I am not aware if we have had that but it is a safe bet that we probably do.

Im sure we may well do, although as Frankv said we maybe should have seen them in ED by now

When we have 8 cases, and no visible comunity transmission its a nice feeling. Not smugness, but a realisation that we are doing a lot right, even though some of these werent always doing their bit right. We all know we all get CT, and when that happens, it will change everything. But at least we will know that we have 99.9% shut off imports. Thats one gate we almost will not need to worry about soon

Alert just came up, yippee. MoH will deport anyone not complying.

With all these people who have flooded in in the last few days, I wouldn't be surprised if we get at least some cases in a week or two. If I was an employer and had someone who had returned to the country in the last few days and they aren't self isolating, then I am not sure I would want to take the risk of the other staff contracting it off them. The politicians who returned from Australia are self isolating even though they legally don't have to. So I wonder why they think that is wise thing to do, when they didn't require it of the general public?

We don't know how many people are actually ll with it, but the illness is very mild, and they don't require. I think they should really ramp up the testing now, so they can be preemptive on it. With this move, no new cases should come into the country, as long as self isolation is followed correctly. So apart from those people who are already in the country who have it, all other new cases will be local transmission.

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#2439266 16-Mar-2020 14:03

MikeB4:

@tdgeek social welfare is about individuals and families it's not about supporting businesses. There will be big demands in vote social welfare and health over the next 6 moths plus that will drive our surplus into deficit. The governments debt will rise and GDP will plummet as result the financial pot will become less and less. The priority will be health, welfare and essential services. This is a similar scenario that played out in the 80s with the huge industry reforms and huge job loses.

Ok, we can cancel the BCP and watch businesses go broke due to an Act of God event. Its about the employees. The point is, these employees will lose their jobs and join your social welfare individuals. Do we want to pay the dole to them, or should we pay a smaller amount, a wage subsidy to keep them employed? Why did we do this with the Kaikoura earthquake? Why did we do this for Whaakari?

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#2439267 16-Mar-2020 14:03

eracode:

dogstar001:

Think the big question which will be answered over the next couple of weeks is will we start to see internal community spread of the virus.

The WHO is already classifying NZ as a country that has ‘local transmission’ (i.e. internal community spread).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200313-sitrep-53-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=adb3f72_2

Only between members of the same family though, patients 2 & 4 are living in same house. As are patients 3 & 5.

No one has received the infection from an unknown community source. Which is a very good thing.

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#2439268 16-Mar-2020 14:08

mattwnz:

With all these people who have flooded in in the last few days, I wouldn't be surprised if we get at least some cases in a week or two. If I was an employer and had someone who had returned to the country in the last few days and they aren't self isolating, then I am not sure I would want to take the risk of the other staff contracting it off them. The politicians who returned from Australia are self isolating even though they legally don't have to. So I wonder why they think that is wise thing to do, when they didn't require it of the general public?

Not really flooded in over the last few days. Those that were returning Saturday, Sunday Monday Tuesday etc came in Sunday. They arent bonuses. Any employer should have their own plans , my one does, it was slightly stronger than what MoH was from memory.

Extra cautious. Set an example.

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#2439272 16-Mar-2020 14:12

mattwnz:

The government may either borrow or do quantitative easing or have another idea.

Oh for sure. They've already said they're going to borrow. They do need to be careful though, our debt:GDP ratio is okay - better than Aus, UK, USA etc etc. But our GDP is probably going to shrink for a while - and unless there's a miraculous recovery then we're headed for long-term pain.

Everybody else is wanting to borrow and/or print money too - all at the same time. That could become a very big problem.

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#2439274 16-Mar-2020 14:15

tdgeek:

Ok, we can cancel the BCP and watch businesses go broke due to an Act of God event. Its about the employees. The point is, these employees will lose their jobs and join your social welfare individuals. Do we want to pay the dole to them, or should we pay a smaller amount, a wage subsidy to keep them employed? Why did we do this with the Kaikoura earthquake? Why did we do this for Whaakari?

We can do it for regional incidents like Kaikoura earthquake but COVIC-19 is a nationwide incident. Are you prepared to pay 50%/60%/70% tax to fund this. We had a welfare and health budget at circa $47Billion before COVID-19 that has a possibility of doubling. Ask yourself where is that money to come from? how is it going to be funded? The government is going to have difficulty arranging offshore loans to meet this need as the demands for loans will be high in a market of diminishing available fiscal resources.

A measure I would support is the government offering limited guarantees for business to arrange emergency lines of credit.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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dogstar001

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#2439276 16-Mar-2020 14:19

Further once there is an infection or several infections from an unknown community source. Things will decline quickly.

Expect closed bars, restaurants & night clubs. Super market shelves will empty.

Schools will follow a few weeks after as the virus spreads. Things will grind to a halt.

A good move by the government would be strick enforcement of the self isolation. I personally don't think using the army would even be a bad option. This will give

the appearance of seriousness and help keep police resources freed up.

tdgeek

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#2439284 16-Mar-2020 14:36

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Ok, we can cancel the BCP and watch businesses go broke due to an Act of God event. Its about the employees. The point is, these employees will lose their jobs and join your social welfare individuals. Do we want to pay the dole to them, or should we pay a smaller amount, a wage subsidy to keep them employed? Why did we do this with the Kaikoura earthquake? Why did we do this for Whaakari?

We can do it for regional incidents like Kaikoura earthquake but COVIC-19 is a nationwide incident. Are you prepared to pay 50%/60%/70% tax to fund this. We had a welfare and health budget at circa $47Billion before COVID-19 that has a possibility of doubling. Ask yourself where is that money to come from? how is it going to be funded? The government is going to have difficulty arranging offshore loans to meet this need as the demands for loans will be high in a market of diminishing available fiscal resources.

A measure I would support is the government offering limited guarantees for business to arrange emergency lines of credit.

Im not suggesting we pay everyones wages. COVID-19 is an Act of God as were Whaakari and EQ's. But anyway, if its better to pay the full dole thats ok with me, probably easier to manage as well as being more costly. But please dont think I am in favour of handouts to business. They are social welfare funds for the employees, that are out of a job no fault of theirs or the employers. Will tax be raised to 70% to fund this? I'm not really sure. These are employees that are unemployed, so they will all get the dole, they will all be standard BAU unemployment payments.

There will be other measures thats already been sorted with the banks.

MikeB4

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#2439291 16-Mar-2020 14:39

@tdgeek This makes no sense "COVID-19 is an Act of God as were Whaakari and EQ's."

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2439293 16-Mar-2020 14:42

dogstar001:

Further once there is an infection or several infections from an unknown community source. Things will decline quickly.

Expect closed bars, restaurants & night clubs. Super market shelves will empty.

Schools will follow a few weeks after as the virus spreads. Things will grind to a halt.

A good move by the government would be strick enforcement of the self isolation. I personally don't think using the army would even be a bad option. This will give

the appearance of seriousness and help keep police resources freed up.

This is why IMO they should really ramp up testing now, so we catch cases locally, and it can be used as a sample spread to gauge the situation.

Looks like the fine in Australia for not self isolating properly is $13000 Oz. So I would expect a fine of $15,000 in NZ if not higher if they introduce one.

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