2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 1766 | 1767 | 1768 | 1769 | 1770 | 1771 | 1772 | 1773 | 1774 | 1775 | 1776 | ... | 2422

Mad Scientist
29760 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2782103 22-Sep-2021 12:11

MikeB4:
Buster:

Some years I don't get a cold anyway, but "can confirm" I haven't had a cold or cough this year or last.

I have not had a cold or Flu for several years. I have the Flu vaccine every year and have done so for years. There is a strict rule at our home, if you are sick or been near sick folk don't visit and this has been in place for years. We have sanitiser at the door and have done so way prior Covid 19.

If you have young children that is not possible. Their friends are always sick. There is about a 100% chance that one of their friends are sick at any one time and a 99% chance their parents won't keep them at home, rather they will partake in every activity they are scheduled for. Something about what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Hear it every day.

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2782110 22-Sep-2021 12:41

I heard one expert says some time ago that schools could become a reservoir for the virus, especially if many aren’t vaccinated.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2782128 22-Sep-2021 13:22

From the presser today:

Hipkins said they're not giving up on getting back down to zero cases, that's why Auckland is still in level 3. That's what everyone is striving for.
"It is still within reach."
Moving to level 3 doesn't mean they're not still pursuing elimination.
Hipkins said they're well-positioned in level 3 to continue the road down to zero.

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2782136 22-Sep-2021 13:33

Not keen to spend weeks and weeks on end unable to see family if it's because we're waiting for gangs and other such stunning examples of humanity to suddenly follow lockdown rules. What is the plan when they inevitably don't?

Oblivian

7296 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#2782142 22-Sep-2021 13:50

Not just bad peoples

Yesterdays mention was elaborated on. That's a LOT of large household or group meetups if it is based on only 20%!

Speaking to the AM Show this morning, Bloomfield admitted there "clearly has been some interaction between households that has led to some of these new cases".

"I dare say that wouldn't be unique," Bloomfield said.

Defending level 3 as "very strict", Bloomfield said that authorities still expected dozens more cases to emerge despite shifting down alert levels at midnight yesterday.

"We know Delta spreads quite liberally inside households. These are household members or very close contacts, who are now isolating and we just know from the sort of conversion rate somewhere between 10 and 20 per cent, that over the next couple of weeks about 50 or 60 of them are likely to come through."

If it wasn't unique in 4. Imagine 3 where it inherently becomes 'back to normal with outside shopping' to some people.

Scott3

3963 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2782153 22-Sep-2021 14:22

Fred99:

From the presser today:

Hipkins said they're not giving up on getting back down to zero cases, that's why Auckland is still in level 3. That's what everyone is striving for.
"It is still within reach."
Moving to level 3 doesn't mean they're not still pursuing elimination.
Hipkins said they're well-positioned in level 3 to continue the road down to zero.

I was amused that Hipkins cut in quickly for that answer to a question directly addressed to Bloomfield.

Bloomfield subsequent answer was carefully worded. Repeating the not giving up on zero line, but mentioning there was a risk we don't get there.

A lot of spin going on from the Ministers.

But to be fair, it is exactly how I would be spinning the situation if I was a minister. There is not much positive to come out of publicly giving up on zero cases at the moment, even if that is the likely outcome.:

There is a chance we get lucky and do get to zero. That would be great for everybody.
Even if we don't have any chance of getting to zero cases we still need to buy time with low case numbers, continued public buy in of zero target is the best way to do this. Gives us time to get a lot more vaccination done, and for the start of summer (when hospitals are traditionally less busy) to roll around before cases get out of hand. If we gave up:
- Many would start ignoring level 3 rules, causing a higher R0 value, meaning no chance of getting to zero, and bringing the peak of our outbreak sooner than otherwise
- Would upset 2/3rds of the population who are living with no detected covid-19 under level 2. Growing case numbers in Auckland mean a leaks to the regions are inevitable over time.
- Would bring calls from Auckland to go to level 2 given we are accepting endemic covid-19 and case numbers are currently low.
- Would bring calls from the 20,000+ people who missed out on the MIQ lottery to get rid of MIQ given that we are accepting Endemic covid-19
- Calls for the domestic MIQ requirements to keep the south island Covid-19 free.

All up, objectively better to wait 2 - 4 weeks to see how the numbers are panning out before changing the official position regarding endemic covid-19. But that does mean a heap of spin

tdgeek

29740 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2782157 22-Sep-2021 14:32

Yes, I picked up on that, Chris H took that over quickly.

It must be frustrating for everyone involved. level 4 lockdown works. Its a 100% solution. Virus starved, game over

BUT it need high compliance otherwise you are emptying a boat taking on 1 litre of water with a 1 litre cup

The large part of Auckland that are probably complying very very well, probably dont need to as its not there, it's in the south, where compliance is lax. Knowing all that they still have to be positive

Equinox IT

Cloud spending continues to surge globally, but most organisations haven’t made the changes necessary to maximise the value and cost-efficiency benefits of their cloud investments. Download the whitepaper From Overspend to Advantage now.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2782160 22-Sep-2021 14:42

Fred99:

From the presser today:

Hipkins said they're not giving up on getting back down to zero cases, that's why Auckland is still in level 3. That's what everyone is striving for.
"It is still within reach."
Moving to level 3 doesn't mean they're not still pursuing elimination.
Hipkins said they're well-positioned in level 3 to continue the road down to zero.

TBH, in the long term getting back to zero would risk creating another a gilded cage for NZ.....and the rest of the world is a much different place to a year ago,

Unless NZ wants to really become a MIQ hermit kingdom we need to move beyond "any case of COVID in the community is a national disaster" if not now then at some point.... the rest of the world has now moved to "living with the disease" including many parts of OZ...

BUT, this will require a huge change in public messaging from the government that I am not sure they want to take that step yet... people will die from COVID even is a highly vaccinated population...

This is from Portugal the current leader in vaccinations...

"Over the past two weeks, Portugal has confirmed an average of 1200 COVID-19 cases and roughly nine deaths per day. About 500 COVID-19 patients are in hospital, roughly 100 of whom are in intensive care."

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-covid-vaccine-rate-in-portugal-tops-80-per-cent-leading-to-declaration-of-victory-against-the-virus/ff64aae9-81d3-4695-ad3c-48f8114c120b

Portugal has a population of ~10 million, with a fully vaxxed pop of 8.6 million, ( around 1 million of the pop are kids under 12) so its pretty much 95% eligible pop vaccinated

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2782165 22-Sep-2021 14:56

I'm in a Level 2 location but will support the efforts to get back to zero Covid cases in the community.

Level 4 in Auckland should have been enough to do it by now. We're only as good as the weakest link. There are too many weak links.

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2782166 22-Sep-2021 14:57

wellygary:

BUT, this will require a huge change in public messaging from the government that I am not sure they want to take that step yet... people will die from COVID even is a highly vaccinated population...

Yes, far better just to lead the country around by the short and curlies with short term, constantly-extending lock-downs because you're 'not ready to change the messaging'.

Sometimes being a leader is about making difficult choices and having difficult conversations.

People shouldn't have to watch for subtle differences between senior public servants and crown ministers to find out what is actually going on with the response.

frankv

5680 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2782167 22-Sep-2021 14:57

Scott3:

Fred99:

From the presser today:

[quoted]Hipkins said they're not giving up on getting back down to zero cases, that's why Auckland is still in level 3. That's what everyone is striving for.
"It is still within reach."
Moving to level 3 doesn't mean they're not still pursuing elimination.
Hipkins said they're well-positioned in level 3 to continue the road down to zero.

[/quoted]

A lot of spin going on from the Ministers.

There is a chance we get lucky and do get to zero. That would be great for everybody.

An asymptomatic case can now spread it to not just their family, but also to their workmates, who will spread it to *their* families. So I'd say there's now a large probability that there will be another outbreak. I guess we should be glad that gang members generally don't have workmates to spread to.

So whilst the chance of elimination is not zero, I think we're in Lotto odds of that. I guess I'm still pursuing a Lotto win. But I wouldn't say it was in reach until my 6th number came up.

tdgeek

29740 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2782169 22-Sep-2021 15:01

wellygary:

"Over the past two weeks, Portugal has confirmed an average of 1200 COVID-19 cases and roughly nine deaths per day. About 500 COVID-19 patients are in hospital, roughly 100 of whom are in intensive care."

Portugal has a population of ~10 million, with a fully vaxxed pop of 8.6 million, ( around 1 million of the pop are kids under 12) so its pretty much 95% eligible pop vaccinated

Sobering news. If we achieve that vaccine level, we could expect 600 cases a day and 4.5 deaths per day, just extrapolating those numbers

JPNZ

1542 posts

Uber Geek

#2782171 22-Sep-2021 15:06

wellygary:

Unless NZ wants to really become a MIQ hermit kingdom we need to move beyond "any case of COVID in the community is a national disaster" if not now then at some point.... the rest of the world has now moved to "living with the disease" including many parts of OZ...

BUT, this will require a huge change in public messaging from the government that I am not sure they want to take that step yet... people will die from COVID even is a highly vaccinated population...

This is the main point IMHO. Even if we get back to Zero, there will be other outbreaks it will come back to New Zealand if not 2021 then definitely 2022.

Panasonic 65GZ1000, Onkyo RZ730, Atmos 5.1.2, AppleTV 4K, Nest Mini's, PS5, PS3, MacbookPro, iPad Pro, Apple watch SE2, iPhone 15+

DS248

1691 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2782174 22-Sep-2021 15:08

wellygary:

...

Portugal has a population of ~10 million, with a fully vaxxed pop of 8.6 million, ( around 1 million of the pop are kids under 12) so its pretty much 95% eligible pop vaccinated

Where are these stats from?

According to https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/portugal/ and several other sources, total vaccines vaccines given was 15,550,992 (figure last reported by the Portuguese government on 14 Sept).

Even if all were double vaccinated, that would be only 7.8m, or ~77% of the total population. Perhaps 86% of the eligible population?

I do see sources saying 86% had a first dose & 81% two doses, but these are clearly of the eligible population.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=isr&areas=aus&areas=nzl&areas=jpn&areas=prt&areas=sgp&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2782178 22-Sep-2021 15:24

DS248:

wellygary:

...

Portugal has a population of ~10 million, with a fully vaxxed pop of 8.6 million, ( around 1 million of the pop are kids under 12) so its pretty much 95% eligible pop vaccinated

Where are these stats from?

According to https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/portugal/ and several other sources, total vaccines vaccines given was 15,550,992 (figure last reported by the Portuguese government on 14 Sept).

Even if all were double vaccinated, that would be only 7.8m, or ~77% of the total population. Perhaps 86% of the eligible population?

I do see sources saying 86% had a first dose & 81% two doses, but these are clearly of the eligible population.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=isr&areas=aus&areas=nzl&areas=jpn&areas=prt&areas=sgp&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1

Portugal is also using the J+J single dose vaccine, so some don't need double dosing ( yet)

the ourworldindata site lists their counts as 82% fully and 87% partial using total population counts, ( not eligible) as of 14th Sept...

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=AUS~AUT~BEL~CAN~CHE~CHL~COL~CZE~DEU~DNK~ESP~EST~FIN~FRA~GBR~GRC~HUN~IRL~ISL~ISR~ITA~JPN~KOR~LTU~LUX~LVA~MEX~NLD~NOR~NZL~POL~PRT~SVK~SVN~SWE~TUR~USA~CRI

1 | ... | 1766 | 1767 | 1768 | 1769 | 1770 | 1771 | 1772 | 1773 | 1774 | 1775 | 1776 | ... | 2422