2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2782259 22-Sep-2021 18:08

mattwnz:

But they could get tougher with those areas, and provide financial support to them. Many are under huge stress to work. I think they put certain suburbs in parts of Oz into more strict lockdowns. South Australia and Queensland appear to have effectively eliminated Delta, so it is possible, and likewise China are still elimination Covid, rather than relying on vaccines. IMO we need to ensure that the rest of NZ keeps it eliminated, and work on Auckland like it is it's own state.

Thats a political statement. As in, easy to say, harder to do.

neb

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#2782281 22-Sep-2021 18:38

Not sure if this was better here or in the Dumbest Headlines thread, but:

Argentina to lift almost all Covid restrictions as cases and deaths fall

Please select from the following three options for the followup headline in two weeks' time:

1. "Argentina reimposes restrictions as Covid cases soar".

2. "Argentina reimposes restrictions as Covid cases soar".

3. "Argentina reimposes restrictions as Covid cases soar".

If it wasn't all so predictable:

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#2782284 22-Sep-2021 18:54

neb: Not sure if this was better here or in the Dumbest Headlines thread, but: Argentina to lift almost all Covid restrictions as cases and deaths fall Please select from the following three options for the followup headline in two weeks' time: 1. "Argentina reimposes restrictions as Covid cases soar". 2. "Argentina reimposes restrictions as Covid cases soar". 3. "Argentina reimposes restrictions as Covid cases soar". If it wasn't all so predictable:

There's an election in November and the government got spanked in the primary election by the right wingers promising to end restrictions.

In a democracy the people get what they want, even when that is dumb.

mattwnz

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#2782289 22-Sep-2021 19:12

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

The one thing they aren't saying is what happens when/if vaccination starts to lose it's affect. We are likely going to need boaster shots, and many people may not get those. IMO they don't seem to be looking too far into the future, or if they are, it is not being communicated to us. Elimination at least gives NZ far more choices IMO.

Thats speculation, not helpful. It would be nice to look into the future, but last tine I looked, it was unknown. While we can bag our horrible response, as is often the case here, we can learn from what others have failed to do. Its called "buying time"

No it isn't, look at Israel who are ahead of NZ. Elimination is what allows us to buy time and see how the virus tracks around the world.

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#2782380 22-Sep-2021 22:17

Informative article here about Israel's data on vaccine effectiveness and how the raw data dosen't give the whole story.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

Even though 60% of hospitalisations are vaccinated the efficacy against severe disease by age group is pretty well 90% or better with, the exception on the 80-89 age group which was about 81%.

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tdgeek

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#2782400 23-Sep-2021 06:49

mattwnz:

No it isn't, look at Israel who are ahead of NZ. Elimination is what allows us to buy time and see how the virus tracks around the world.

Yes it is speculation "We are likely going to need boaster shots, and many people may not get those. IMO they don't seem to be looking too far into the future, or if they are, it is not being communicated to us."

We are holding out wth elimination. Eagerly watching Pfizer under 12 trials, so as to maximise population vaccination. The push is 90%+, and under 12's and under 5's as these trials evolve. The mantra is jab jab jab, so its speculation that many people may not get booster shots. As to looking too far into the future, no, thats false. The future isnt known yet, which is why holding out with elimination will buy time so we can assess when data is found, not before its found. The more information you have, the better choices can be chosen.

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#2782403 23-Sep-2021 07:19

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126447133/covid19-what-would-a-90-per-cent-vaccination-rate-mean-for-new-zealand

Short story is, no matter what the vaccination level is, extensive measures will still be needed. Get vaccination level high and maintain masks, scanning, isolation, only vaccinated travellers allowed in etc. There will be cases, so ease the measures after cases ease, not before.

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Fred99

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#2782404 23-Sep-2021 07:42

Consistent message from the start of the pandemic: "Test test test"

Auckland test numbers now : ~4,000 a day

NSW test numbers : ~ 130,000 a day

tdgeek

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#2782406 23-Sep-2021 07:49

A positive and handy finding, for the future

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300413719/covid19-vaccinated-pregnant-peoples-protection-passes-to-babies-study-shows

On2or3wheels

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#2782445 23-Sep-2021 09:14

Technofreak:

Informative article here about Israel's data on vaccine effectiveness and how the raw data dosen't give the whole story.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

Even though 60% of hospitalisations are vaccinated the efficacy against severe disease by age group is pretty well 90% or better with, the exception on the 80-89 age group which was about 81%.

There's actually quite a positive spin placed on this article considering 515 were in hospital at the time of this article, & there were/are still restrictions in place.
Israel has about the same population as us. Could NZ cope with an additional 515 continually in hospital on top of normal numbers. There's probably a good chance that we have more New Zealanders at risk with underlying health conditions as well.

Edit: Now there's 726 in hospital.

On2or3wheels

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#2782457 23-Sep-2021 09:19

tdgeek:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126447133/covid19-what-would-a-90-per-cent-vaccination-rate-mean-for-new-zealand

Short story is, no matter what the vaccination level is, extensive measures will still be needed. Get vaccination level high and maintain masks, scanning, isolation, only vaccinated travellers allowed in etc. There will be cases, so ease the measures after cases ease, not before.

So 20,000 people typically catch the flu in NZ each year. In Israel approx 8,000 a day are still catching covid (from worldometer), & that's with restrictions in place. That doesn't really compare.

Edit: Also to cherry pick a country (Denmark) that might be currently doing the best in the world & say we'll turn out like them is risky & stupid.

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#2782464 23-Sep-2021 09:32

Fred99:
Consistent message from the start of the pandemic: "Test test test"

Auckland test numbers now : ~4,000 a day

NSW test numbers : ~ 130,000 a day

No no no, Donald (and probably sidekick Scotty) said if you stop testing the number of cases drop. They is probably a testy subject though.

tdgeek

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#2782467 23-Sep-2021 09:42

On2or3wheels:

tdgeek:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126447133/covid19-what-would-a-90-per-cent-vaccination-rate-mean-for-new-zealand

Short story is, no matter what the vaccination level is, extensive measures will still be needed. Get vaccination level high and maintain masks, scanning, isolation, only vaccinated travellers allowed in etc. There will be cases, so ease the measures after cases ease, not before.

So 20,000 people typically catch the flu in NZ each year. In Israel approx 8,000 a day are still catching covid (from worldometer), & that's with restrictions in place. That doesn't really compare.

OK, lets talk India, doesn't work there either. Ireland and Denmark were mentioned which are better comparisons to NZ. However, the point was, to maintain tight restrictions as you bed in a high level of vaccinations, then ease as seems fit. Most other countries are vaccinating at the same time as opening up, hence epidemics of the unvaccinated

On2or3wheels

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#2782471 23-Sep-2021 09:51

tdgeek:

hence epidemics of the unvaccinated

The article above about Israel, was about the vaccinated still ending up in hospital as well. Yes it's lower numbers of course.

I've forgotten the numbers but I did read somewhere the number of immunocompromised & people with co-morbidities in NZ. I'm sure it was over 6% from memory.

Fred99

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#2782473 23-Sep-2021 10:06

MikeB4:
Fred99:

Consistent message from the start of the pandemic: "Test test test"

Auckland test numbers now : ~4,000 a day

NSW test numbers : ~ 130,000 a day

No no no, Donald (and probably sidekick Scotty) said if you stop testing the number of cases drop. They is probably a testy subject though.

Here they're herding cats - trying to get vaccination rates up, testing up, reducing dissent / non-compliance with sensible controls to limit transmission, trying to keep everybody as happy as possible, banking on the concept that as a nation we'll put our red socks on and show the world how it's done.

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