2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2439692 17-Mar-2020 07:51

tdgeek:

Batman:

due to virus spread, decisions made today will only reveal results in 15 days.

if in 2 weeks we find self isolation didn't work (non compliance) we are stuffed.

5.5 days is the median

Covid-19 started in late November

Official 31 December

We blocked China around January 26

There has been ample time for mass community transmission. Self isolation didnt commence 15 days ago

incorrect. virus was not as widespread globally 5.5 - 15 days ago.

the incoming flights yesterday have a much larger risk compared to 5.5-15 days ago.

the incoming flights today have a much larger risk compared to yesterday.

the incoming flights tomorrow have a much larger risk compared to today.

incoming flight in 5.5 days you can guarantee will spark a cluster outbreak. 100%.

frednz

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#2439693 17-Mar-2020 07:57

gzt: The UK herd immunity thing sounds like PR spin from a consultant. There is no evidence that this is an official UK policy recommended by anyone at all that I can see.

I certainly hope that "herd immunity" doesn't become an official UK policy, but it has been suggested by the UK's chief scientific advisor and the health minister, as discussed below:

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/nz-scientists-horrified-at-herd-immunity-strategy/ar-BB11gwlL?ocid=spartandhp

From the above:

The idea of herd immunity and elderly people self-isolating for several months has been described as an experiment on a massive scale
While New Zealand’s borders close, the United Kingdom’s approach to Covid-19 has scientists horrified.

A strategy of herd immunity, coupled with isolation for vulnerable people, has been touted by the UK's chief scientific advisor and the health minister.

The approach has led to Singapore adding the UK to a list of countries whose arrivals will receive a strict 14-day stay-at-home notice. One Singaporean official described the UK as having “abandoned any measure to constrain or restrain the virus”.

… The suggestion of a herd immunity strategy for Covid-19 was met with horror by University of Auckland associate professor Helen Petousis-Harris. “At what cost? Throwing people under the train? There are younger people getting seriously ill as well.”

There is no vaccine for Covid-19. To achieve herd immunity, a large number people would have to catch the virus and recover. If vulnerable people self-isolate, at some point, theoretically, they would be safe because the virus would no longer be spreading.
Vallance estimated around 60 percent of the UK’s population - roughly 40 million people - would need to catch the disease to achieve herd immunity.

tdgeek

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#2439694 17-Mar-2020 07:59

Batman:

incorrect. virus was not as widespread globally 5.5 - 15 days ago.

the incoming flights yesterday have a much larger risk compared to 5.5-15 days ago.

the incoming flights today have a much larger risk compared to yesterday.

the incoming flights tomorrow have a much larger risk compared to today.

Every day since late November all that applied. How many people arriving today are there compared to any day last week? Marginally higher riskj each day, massively less arrivals. You forgot to comment on my communty transmission comment

Tinkerisk

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#2439695 17-Mar-2020 07:59

- We have the first victim in town (out of >1.8 million inhabitants).

- The fish-market (an institutional event where you can buy everything but fresh fish on Sunday early morning) has closed for the first time since 300 years in history.

- The 831st Harbour Birthday has been cancelled for this year.

- Every shop not relevant for people's supply will be closed in Germany.

- Cultural life is shut down in the whole country.

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Batman

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#2439696 17-Mar-2020 08:02

tdgeek:

Batman:

incorrect. virus was not as widespread globally 5.5 - 15 days ago.

the incoming flights yesterday have a much larger risk compared to 5.5-15 days ago.

the incoming flights today have a much larger risk compared to yesterday.

the incoming flights tomorrow have a much larger risk compared to today.

Every day since late November all that applied. How many people arriving today are there compared to any day last week? Marginally higher riskj each day, massively less arrivals. You forgot to comment on my communty transmission comment

community transmission probably requires a super spreader probably moving around in a dense microlocation.

guarantee we will get one of those on a flight coming in next week.

Batman

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#2439697 17-Mar-2020 08:02

tdgeek:

Batman:

incorrect. virus was not as widespread globally 5.5 - 15 days ago.

the incoming flights yesterday have a much larger risk compared to 5.5-15 days ago.

the incoming flights today have a much larger risk compared to yesterday.

the incoming flights tomorrow have a much larger risk compared to today.

Every day since late November all that applied. How many people arriving today are there compared to any day last week? Marginally higher riskj each day, massively less arrivals. You forgot to comment on my communty transmission comment

i don't know. any webcams in AKL airport?

tdgeek

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#2439698 17-Mar-2020 08:06

Batman:

tdgeek:

Every day since late November all that applied. How many people arriving today are there compared to any day last week? Marginally higher riskj each day, massively less arrivals. You forgot to comment on my communty transmission comment

i don't know. any webcams in AKL airport?

Try the carpark. Empty as at last nights news

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Batman

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#2439699 17-Mar-2020 08:08

i don't know. shut border now or shut down the country in 15 days.

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#2439700 17-Mar-2020 08:08

Corona is hitting different places quite differently.

Philippines has basically gone into lock down.
That quite likely will have an affect on many businesses and homes here...

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tdgeek

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#2439701 17-Mar-2020 08:09

Batman:

community transmission probably requires a super spreader probably moving around in a dense microlocation.

guarantee we will get one of those on a flight coming in next week.

150,000 cases, probably now 160,000, arent from super spreaders

After months of potential, and no known CT cases, you will guarantee one from next weeks arrivals? Ok

Geektastic

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#2439702 17-Mar-2020 08:10

So with the progress of the various lock downs etc all my work for the next six months has been cancelled. I look forward to receiving my government assistance. He said, tongue firmly in cheek.

I’ve sent supermarket vouchers to my elderly mother in the UK as a show of support. She certainly doesn’t need the money but she’s paranoid about online shopping so I thought she could experience it safely and see that the sky won’t fall, as shortly she may have no choice.

I also pointed out to her that if she dies, I’ll be more or less unable to attend her funeral unless it’s streamed online!

GV27

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#2439714 17-Mar-2020 08:16

tdgeek:

After months of potential, and no known CT cases, you will guarantee one from next weeks arrivals? Ok

I suspect you are right, but I'm reminded of the US rest-home that went back and tested residents who died in February for Covid19 and found it was probably what killed them.

tdgeek

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#2439717 17-Mar-2020 08:21

GV27:

tdgeek:

After months of potential, and no known CT cases, you will guarantee one from next weeks arrivals? Ok

I suspect you are right, but I'm reminded of the US rest-home that went back and tested residents who died in February for Covid19 and found it was probably what killed them.

That was batmans comment. IMHO if we closed to borders to all non NZ nationals and residents, we are well placed here. We can focus on our own land and not be bothered with what the airport throws at us. There will be CT and there probably already has been, but it hasnt shown up at ED's and doctors. The virus can infect us all here, but our processes appear to make it difficult for it to get traction, thats my positive.

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#2439721 17-Mar-2020 08:31

Batman:

UK now in lockdown

Eh, not really. It's a suggested lockdown rather than mandated. Pubs are still open.

Tinkerisk

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#2439722 17-Mar-2020 08:36

Geektastic: I also pointed out to her that if she dies, I’ll be more or less unable to attend her funeral unless it’s streamed online!

Hey, Winston! She has a 75% chance NOT to die!

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