2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2790612 6-Oct-2021 15:00

Batman:

they say one thing and do the opposite.

No. Some people just don't listen.

For the record, Hipkins did say today that he can't rule out a return to level 4 - if and as circumstances demand.

I'll bookmark this post - because if and when that did happen, you'll probably say "but they said no more level 4".

They haven't.

This seems to be an ongoing problem, not understanding what "elimination" meant, not understanding that things must be adapted to meet changing circumstances - when there's still no possible way to know how endemic covid will roll out.

wellygary

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#2790613 6-Oct-2021 15:00

Batman:

banner on nzherald

There is only one daily update from the Ministry of Health,

So the only way it could be moving between those updates is if the Herald are extrapolating a future figure based on recent vaccination rates and publishing an hourly "forecast" between the official data updates,

Batman

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#2790615 6-Oct-2021 15:12

Fred99:

Batman:

they say one thing and do the opposite.

No. Some people just don't listen.

For the record, Hipkins did say today that he can't rule out a return to level 4 - if and as circumstances demand.

I'll bookmark this post - because if and when that did happen, you'll probably say "but they said no more level 4".

They haven't.

This seems to be an ongoing problem, not understanding what "elimination" meant, not understanding that things must be adapted to meet changing circumstances - when there's still no possible way to know how endemic covid will roll out.

maybe the story has changed, or maybe i don't get what they're saying

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/10/covid-19-auckland-move-back-to-level-4-very-unlikely-despite-warning-of-hospitalisations-and-deaths-around-christmas.html

mattwnz

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#2790616 6-Oct-2021 15:24

Fred99:

Batman:

they say one thing and do the opposite.

No. Some people just don't listen.

For the record, Hipkins did say today that he can't rule out a return to level 4 - if and as circumstances demand.

I'll bookmark this post - because if and when that did happen, you'll probably say "but they said no more level 4".

They haven't.

This seems to be an ongoing problem, not understanding what "elimination" meant, not understanding that things must be adapted to meet changing circumstances - when there's still no possible way to know how endemic covid will roll out.

They can pretty much do what they want if conditions dictate it as it is a moving target. Watching the press conference today I think some people still don't understand the difference between elimination and eradication. My understanding is that they are still using the elimination strategy, but the PM said that it is unlikely they will get back down to zero cases. This is despite the media saying elimination is over, which IMO is not good messaging. We still need people following level 3 until vaccinations are high enough to flatten the curve and 'suppress cases'. The PM said that vaccination is showing to cut transmission by about 50%, which is not great. Otherwise we risk becoming another Victoria. But Victoria have ben in lockdowns for nearly a year, whereas NZ lockdowns have been 2-3 months in total.

Fred99

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#2790617 6-Oct-2021 15:24

Batman:

maybe the story has changed, or maybe i don't get what they're saying

Maybe you don't.

The story is very consistent and clear to me - no (return to) level 4 planned, but can't be excluded if circumstances demand.

The next thing I expect cynics may say is "well they're not defining those circumstances".

I guess they can't, could be localised exponential case growth, could be full ICU's.

The next thing I expect cynics may ask is "well how full do ICU's have to be?"

I guess that depends on how fast they're filling, how fast they're emptying, and what projections for cases needing ICU are at the time.

The next thing I expect cynics may say is "see - they don't know what they're doing and don't have any plans".

Batman

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#2790620 6-Oct-2021 15:29

wellygary:

Batman:

banner on nzherald

There is only one daily update from the Ministry of Health,

So the only way it could be moving between those updates is if the Herald are extrapolating a future figure based on recent vaccination rates and publishing an hourly "forecast" between the official data updates,

banner just went from 20.4 to 20.2 !

i think you might be right, just some extrapolation algorithm

meanwhile ... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-mayor-calls-for-north-island-lockdown-says-its-too-hard-to-contain-in-waikato/DLNJYCBBV4BJOKQHCBHMEZBKPI/

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Batman

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#2790622 6-Oct-2021 15:33

mattwnz:

They can pretty much do what they want if conditions dictate it as it is a moving target. Watching the press conference today I think some people still don't understand the difference between elimination and eradication. My understanding is that they are still using the elimination strategy, but the PM said that it is unlikely they will get back down to zero cases. This is despite the media saying elimination is over, which IMO is not good messaging. We still need people following level 3 until vaccinations are high enough to flatten the curve and 'suppress cases'. The PM said that vaccination is showing to cut transmission by about 50%, which is not great. Otherwise we risk becoming another Victoria. But Victoria have ben in lockdowns for nearly a year, whereas NZ lockdowns have been 2-3 months in total.

whatever it is, i'm confused as heck as to what they're saying.

afaik the most current strategy is elimination and zero tolerance, trying not to lockdown but will if needed.

someone confirm this is the current strategy, because all i saw on the news last night was reopening in 3 phases phase 1 already started

wellygary

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#2790623 6-Oct-2021 15:33

Fred99:

Batman:

they say one thing and do the opposite.

No. Some people just don't listen.

For the record, Hipkins did say today that he can't rule out a return to level 4 - if and as circumstances demand.

I'll bookmark this post - because if and when that did happen, you'll probably say "but they said no more level 4".

They haven't.

This seems to be an ongoing problem, not understanding what "elimination" meant, not understanding that things must be adapted to meet changing circumstances - when there's still no possible way to know how endemic covid will roll out.

Hipkins also stated verbatim today that "We aren't moving away from elimination"

..... The fog of war continues to encompass everything that was once clear...

Oblivian

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#2790624 6-Oct-2021 15:43

So you remember that 100 person limit at a venue right...

*Poof*

https://covid19.govt.nz/activities/events-and-entertainment/#events-and-entertainment-at-alert-level-2

At Alert Level 2, there are no restrictions on the number of people that can attend an event at a venue, for example at a stadium, cinema, theatre or conference venue — as long as everyone can safely stay 1 metre apart.

This includes indoor and outdoor event facilities, and both ticketed and non-ticketed events.

I can see why media asked about all the changes last 24hrs.

Surely that is a Phase2 pre-release boo-boo

Fred99

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#2790625 6-Oct-2021 15:46

wellygary:

Hipkins also stated verbatim today that "We aren't moving away from elimination"

..... The fog of war continues to encompass everything that was once clear...

Put yourself in his shoes, with many people still not understanding what "elimination" actually means, with some sectors of the community frustrated by and already not adhering to L2/3 conditions, with 1/2 the population vaccinated and presumably feeling less threatened by the possibility of catching covid.

Herding cats is hard enough already, telling the morons that "elimination" isn't still the target will be highly damaging to the chance of delivering a very well managed exit from lockdown.

KrazyKid

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#2790627 6-Oct-2021 15:48

I'm hoping it says out of the South Island until end of November.

I'm guessing it will stay out of the South Island until the beginning of November

I wouldn't be surprised to see SI cases in October though :(

The plan has to be local lockdowns as it spreads to slow the advance until the end of November when we get close to 90% double vax.
Then it's that new from of level 3 where there shops are open, rapid testing is happening and case numbers start climbing.

If we are lucky they will get a handle on the local cases and be able to move in & out of level 3 in some places.

Personally if you have medical appointments you want to keep/make I would see about bringing them forward if I could.

In many ways we are lucky, School holidays and the summer will act as barriers to slow infection rates while the last of the reluctant people get vaccinated Dec - Jan.

This could have been happening in at the start of winter.

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GV27

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#2790629 6-Oct-2021 15:51

Oblivian:

So you remember that 100 person limit at a venue right...

*Poof*

https://covid19.govt.nz/activities/events-and-entertainment/#events-and-entertainment-at-alert-level-2

At Alert Level 2, there are no restrictions on the number of people that can attend an event at a venue, for example at a stadium, cinema, theatre or conference venue — as long as everyone can safely stay 1 metre apart.

This includes indoor and outdoor event facilities, and both ticketed and non-ticketed events.

I can see why media asked about all the changes last 24hrs.

Surely that is a Phase2 pre-release boo-boo

Wasn't this announced Monday?

wellygary

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#2790631 6-Oct-2021 15:54

Oblivian:

So you remember that 100 person limit at a venue right...

*Poof*

https://covid19.govt.nz/activities/events-and-entertainment/#events-and-entertainment-at-alert-level-2

At Alert Level 2, there are no restrictions on the number of people that can attend an event at a venue, for example at a stadium, cinema, theatre or conference venue — as long as everyone can safely stay 1 metre apart.

This includes indoor and outdoor event facilities, and both ticketed and non-ticketed events.

That was announced for the rest of the country on Monday as a bit of a reward when they announced the "Picnic and beach passes" for Auckland....

It will be interesting to see if it gets taken up by big event venues... technically you could probably have ~33%-50% capacity at really big seated venues like sports grounds or theatres...

Fred99

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#2790632 6-Oct-2021 15:55

GV27:

Wasn't this announced Monday?

Yeah - I thought so.

But probably better IMO if it was eased later - in conjunction with rollout of the "vaccine passport".

Oblivian

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#2790634 6-Oct-2021 16:03

GV27:

Wasn't this announced Monday?

Not quite. It was still 'working with the sector and would advise in advance of any changes'

Which is why some venues have been taken by surprise after putting off public this week.

The seated and separated rule will provide the safety we need. This will also apply to other events spaces, and we’ll issue guidance on this. Because social gatherings do not use the seated and separated rule, the limit of 100 will continue to apply for these

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