2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2790694 6-Oct-2021 17:38

Rikkitic:

JPNZ:

Just a quick question for anyone..

If cases keep increasing and spreading south how inclined do you think the Government will be to move back to Level 4?

Only if the hospitals overflow and people are dying in the corridors. Decisions are not based on what might be best, but on what the population will put up with. There would be very little acceptance of a return to level 4 at this stage.

Yip. "Living with the virus" doesn't mean no restrictions, it means ongoing and changing restrictions.

GV27

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#2790703 6-Oct-2021 18:02

Handle9:

Yip. "Living with the virus" doesn't mean no restrictions, it means ongoing and changing restrictions.

Wild how we're suddenly a lot more pragmatic about this after this week for some reason.

I've always hated that phrase anyway. We're living with the virus now. Even when it wasn't circulating, we were still having to work around it.

Handle9

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#2790705 6-Oct-2021 18:08

GV27:

Handle9:

Yip. "Living with the virus" doesn't mean no restrictions, it means ongoing and changing restrictions.

Wild how we're suddenly a lot more pragmatic about this after this week for some reason.

I've always hated that phrase anyway. We're living with the virus now. Even when it wasn't circulating, we were still having to work around it.

It's always been dog whistle to make it all sound easy and non-threatening.

Having the virus in the community and dealing with the consequences is more accurate but not as nice for TV

TeaLeaf

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#2790711 6-Oct-2021 18:20

Handle9:

No they are all different. There is no practical way to load new data onto your passport RFID chip.

A QR code is just a link. The one on my vaccine passport app here changes every 5 minutes, I guess to prevent fraud.

Agggh very cool. Thanks for that. I thought part of the purpose of a passport chip was so they could add data to it, I didnt realise it was a one way thing.

Id imagine as we get closer to opening up, some stage between 2022 and 2024 lol (sorry I jest, well not some time 2022 I hope), we will be in a better place to align with others some stage closer to when Int border open so I "assume"/hope they are thinking ahead?

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#2790712 6-Oct-2021 18:23

watching the news - they have changed the vaccination 2nd dose wait period from 6 weeks to 3 weeks

Oblivian

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#2790713 6-Oct-2021 18:25

Batman:

watching the news - they have changed the vaccination 2nd dose wait period from 6 weeks to 3 weeks

Should jump on the NZ health youtube for the train home or something and watch if you can't make the lunch pressers. It's where the 6pm news comes from ;)

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=265423&page_no=1856#2790563

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#2790714 6-Oct-2021 18:26

Rikkitic:

JPNZ:

Just a quick question for anyone..

If cases keep increasing and spreading south how inclined do you think the Government will be to move back to Level 4?

Only if the hospitals overflow and people are dying in the corridors. Decisions are not based on what might be best, but on what the population will put up with. There would be very little acceptance of a return to level 4 at this stage.

yes i think this is the correct answer.

been thinking - if they were going to go back to level 4, you'd think that as covid is now spreading 100s of kms north and south of AKL, now would be the time to go to level 4.

since they are not going to level 4 with the cases spreading, why would they wait until cases have spread all around the country to go back to level 4.

second -

6 weeks of level 4 from 1 case in AKL ended up nowhere - so going back to level 4 because cases are all over the country, is unlikely to get cases to zero, it will be to keep the hospital corridors clear as you've put it

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mattwnz

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#2790721 6-Oct-2021 18:42

Clover Park resident says lockdown breaches are ‘out of control’

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-democracy-reporting/300424666/covid19-clover-park-resident-says-lockdown-breaches-are-out-of-control

I kind of wonder at what stage they decided to be so lax with enforcing the lockdown and the flouting, especially considering there are far bigger fines coming. It just seems bizarre, because what is the point of the larger fines, if not being used as a punishment for flouting? Now we are going to be 'living with the virus', and using suppression, Vaccination is just one of the tools. Masks and physical distancing, as well as scanning for contact tracing will likely be the future for at least the next few years to various degrees.

Handle9

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#2790722 6-Oct-2021 18:46

mattwnz:

Clover Park resident says lockdown breaches are ‘out of control’

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-democracy-reporting/300424666/covid19-clover-park-resident-says-lockdown-breaches-are-out-of-control

I kind of wonder at what stage they decided to be so lax with enforcing the lockdown and the flouting, especially considering there are far bigger fines coming. It just seems bizarre, because what is the point of the larger fines, if not being used as a punishment for flouting? Now we are going to be 'living with the virus', and using suppression, Vaccination is just one of the tools. Masks and physical distancing, as well as scanning for contact tracing will likely be the future for at least the next few years to various degrees.

Off you go with your camera and fines book then.

tdgeek

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#2790724 6-Oct-2021 18:48

Fred99:

JPNZ:

Just a quick question for anyone..

If cases keep increasing and spreading south how inclined do you think the Government will be to move back to Level 4?

Probably not inclined at all, purpose of L4 was "elimination" - that hasn't worked. L3 would be what I'd expect until vaccination rates are higher, then I expect we'll be in a level 2 situation, but dependant on actual hospital capacity, tighter lockdowns may be required.

Its not increasing. 19 one day 30 the next. Many are exited household contacts as distinct from randoms.

tdgeek

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#2790725 6-Oct-2021 18:50

wellygary:

There has been a marked uptick in the numbers booking first jabs,

It dropped right away last week (less than ~5K for 3 days in a row), its now perked up to 12K on Monday and 17K yesterday...

At 17K a day, its 3 weeks to hit 90% vax and booked....

The best motivation for jabs and tests is an outbreak. That's quite ironic. To avoid the outbreak you test, vaccinate and comply. We seem to do that in reverse.

tdgeek

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#2790729 6-Oct-2021 18:57

JPNZ:

Its been moving within gang circles for weeks now even during level 4 in Auckland. The government are powerless to stop those who don't even obey the law let alone lockdowns.

Not sure about weeks, but the Govt is powerless, as they dont control the outbreak, they manage it. If the people dont comply, you get where we are now, which is why I gave up last week. But Im ok with that, the unvaccinated will continue to pile up the numbers (exagerated by close contacts so dont buy into that too much) and as humans are, we will ignore it until an outbreak, the jabs will be massive. Which will help matters.

mattwnz

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#2790730 6-Oct-2021 18:59

Handle9:

mattwnz:

Clover Park resident says lockdown breaches are ‘out of control’

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-democracy-reporting/300424666/covid19-clover-park-resident-says-lockdown-breaches-are-out-of-control

I kind of wonder at what stage they decided to be so lax with enforcing the lockdown and the flouting, especially considering there are far bigger fines coming. It just seems bizarre, because what is the point of the larger fines, if not being used as a punishment for flouting? Now we are going to be 'living with the virus', and using suppression, Vaccination is just one of the tools. Masks and physical distancing, as well as scanning for contact tracing will likely be the future for at least the next few years to various degrees.

Off you go with your camera and fines book then.

Considering the billions of dollars lockdowns have cost, and the flouting just resetting the lockdown clock, it makes little sense that we didn't enforce lockdowns like they are in South Australia and Queensland where they got rid of delta. What's there point of the government increasing the fines, when they haven't brought them in yet and not enforcing the rules to prevent flouting. Instead IMO it can give some the message to people, of why bother. If hospital admissions rise too much, and we don't reach very high vaccination rates, I can see the government may have no choice but for more strict suppression measures, like they are planning for winter in the UK. I think they may ditch the level system, as level 1 is now pretty much impossible. Even though the South Island think they should be at level 1.

tdgeek

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#2790731 6-Oct-2021 19:00

Fred99:

No. Some people just don't listen.

For the record, Hipkins did say today that he can't rule out a return to level 4 - if and as circumstances demand.

I'll bookmark this post - because if and when that did happen, you'll probably say "but they said no more level 4".

They haven't.

This seems to be an ongoing problem, not understanding what "elimination" meant, not understanding that things must be adapted to meet changing circumstances - when there's still no possible way to know how endemic covid will roll out.

Best post ever

Summarised in two words be adapted

tdgeek

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#2790734 6-Oct-2021 19:05

mattwnz:

They can pretty much do what they want if conditions dictate it as it is a moving target. Watching the press conference today I think some people still don't understand the difference between elimination and eradication. My understanding is that they are still using the elimination strategy, but the PM said that it is unlikely they will get back down to zero cases. This is despite the media saying elimination is over, which IMO is not good messaging. We still need people following level 3 until vaccinations are high enough to flatten the curve and 'suppress cases'. The PM said that vaccination is showing to cut transmission by about 50%, which is not great. Otherwise we risk becoming another Victoria. But Victoria have ben in lockdowns for nearly a year, whereas NZ lockdowns have been 2-3 months in total.

Maybe that might happen, but we need to follow the math not the emotions or FB

30 cases, no issue. Many to follow are contacts, no issue. 45 I think they said today.

Elimination or eradication? Neither. Hold the cases by suppression until vaccine reach 90%. 97% of all cases this time around are unvaccinated. So, vaccination is the tool going forward.

Math, not emotions and complaints.

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