2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2801360 26-Oct-2021 13:44

GV27:

tdgeek:

75 and 4 cases. But I'd say testing has plummetted over the long weekend, so 79 cases might be rather high

Vax numbers wayyyy down also.

I'd say so. Disappointing.

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#2801374 26-Oct-2021 13:53

on the positive side - recall that NSW opened up right at the peak of their cases when they freshly vaccinated over 80% of their population with the first dose. we were all saying they were going to go kaput.

in fact their cases only kept coming down despite opening up

so perhaps our freshly administered vaccine is really keeping this under control.

NOT eliminating, but under control

time will tell

tdgeek

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#2801384 26-Oct-2021 14:17

Batman:

on the positive side - recall that NSW opened up right at the peak of their cases when they freshly vaccinated over 80% of their population with the first dose. we were all saying they were going to go kaput.

in fact their cases only kept coming down despite opening up

so perhaps our freshly administered vaccine is really keeping this under control.

NOT eliminating, but under control

time will tell

Hard to know. As they vax hard, the unvaccinated reduce so cases probably reduce, and spread from vaccinateds is less, so less spread. Ideally you want 98% vaccinated then open up, but if you open up early you accept more deaths, but the same effect applies

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#2801388 26-Oct-2021 14:23

What might happen in Australia ?
Robust vaccination certificates and measures to limit mixing and travel of unvaccinated will help ?

Hopefully more considered approach will do better than UK
You have your freedom day and cases seem to go down.
Maybe its that a lot of people take the freedom to stay home.
Maybe its summer and people are mostly able to avoid poorly ventilated indoor situations.

Cases keep dropping steeply and victory is declared, then people who have been hunkering down have to come out.
Schools and various other activities accelerate. General approbation for masks grows its over.
Overseas trips for holidays start to end as Autumn arrives.
Suddenly cases are going up , that ok hospitalizations are not going up.
More freedom, and hospitalizations start trending up and cases more steeply.
What about Christmas ! Winter !

It has been noted in some articles that amount of mask wearing in UK has been lower than many parts of Europe.
Pandemics are a multivariable mix of virus capabilities, behaviors of the host and countermeasures.
Pandemics seem to move in waves, and was that drop due to your measures ?

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#2801396 26-Oct-2021 14:48

time will tell.

keep an eye on NSW, and Vic.

Vic and NZ are basically following what NSW did, generically speaking.

Vic cases are starting to drop, and they are about to reopen.

so watch these 2 guys and we should follow closely. barring health system implosion. (eg if our most at risk are the 20% unvaccinated etc etc)

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#2801399 26-Oct-2021 14:56

If it went under the radar... Looking better than last week when announced.

Only 1 DHB left to hit 90% firsts. Central went over. Hopefully they all follow up. As there's still a way to go for 2nds

DHB / Total 1st / % 1st / remaining 1st to 90 / 2nd / % 2nd / remaining to 90 / pop

Waitemata 475,288 90% 0 403,225 77% 70,253 526,087
Auckland 395,070 93% 0 343,631 81% 37,931 423,958
Counties Manukau 423,476 88% 11,020 355,419 74% 79,077 482,773

There was a number of youth on the independant drive that was on the news over the weekend. A few 'I just couldn't be bothered' mixed with some 'once I realised it was going to probably be needed to get into some bars and stuff..'

There were 708 first jabs administered to residents in the Counties Manukau DHB area yesterday, meaning the area still sits on an 88 per cent first-vaccination rate and still needs about 11,000 more jabs to get to 90 per cent.

Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson confirmed earlier today that officials expect Counties Manukau to hit the 90 per cent first vaccination target within the week - meaning second doses across Counties Manukau and the region's two other DHBs should be complete by the end of November.

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#2801402 26-Oct-2021 15:06

Batman:
on the positive side - recall that NSW opened up right at the peak of their cases when they freshly vaccinated over 80% of their population with the first dose. we were all saying they were going to go kaput.

in fact their cases only kept coming down despite opening up

so perhaps our freshly administered vaccine is really keeping this under control.

NOT eliminating, but under control

time will tell

I doubt it based on a story a few days ago which warned that the percentage of people testing positive in some areas was high. So this is likely the more tests done , the more cases they will find. Vaccination may start to have an effect, but it doesn't prevent spread. Some vaccinated people who may have covid instead may have no symptoms and not get tested. So imo the numbers become inaccurate as more people get vaccinated and testing positive will either be unvaccinated, or vaccinated with symptoms.

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#2801404 26-Oct-2021 15:11

So we all become zombies to the virus ;p

It's fine. 5g makes me happy :)

tdgeek

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#2801407 26-Oct-2021 15:19

mattwnz:

I doubt it based on a story a few days ago which warned that the percentage of people testing positive in some areas was high. So this is likely the more tests done , the more cases they will find. Vaccination may start to have an effect, but it doesn't prevent spread. Some vaccinated people who may have covid instead may have no symptoms and not get tested. So imo the numbers become inaccurate as more people get vaccinated and testing positive will either be unvaccinated, or vaccinated with symptoms.

Agree with that. Vaccination does help spread as its less viral. But as the vaccinated move on and dont get tested you wont see them, and when plenty of unvaccinated are positive, thats expected as freedom day now, the epidemic of the unvaccinated will take over. Assuming that most are 18-30, the only real metric we need to watch will be hospital beds. While continuing to push the hesitant

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#2801411 26-Oct-2021 15:27

Batman:

time will tell.

keep an eye on NSW, and Vic.

Vic and NZ are basically following what NSW did, generically speaking.

Vic cases are starting to drop, and they are about to reopen.

so watch these 2 guys and we should follow closely. barring health system implosion. (eg if our most at risk are the 20% unvaccinated etc etc)

Yip, I have a funny feeling that if NSW ( and then VIC) turn out Ok - and NZ gets 90-95% DD , big chunks of the "traffic light" system will be quietly dropped, - with the explanation that they are not needed because we did so well with the vax uptake....

Nothing in NZ is going to change until the end of Nov Cabinet decision and a lot can change over that time

- It might have all gone very pear shaped, but might be a lot better....

Batman

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#2801413 26-Oct-2021 15:28

Oblivian:

If it went under the radar... Looking better than last week when announced.

Only 1 DHB left to hit 90% firsts. Central went over. Hopefully they all follow up. As there's still a way to go for 2nds

DHB / Total 1st / % 1st / remaining 1st to 90 / 2nd / % 2nd / remaining to 90 / pop

Waitemata 475,288 90% 0 403,225 77% 70,253 526,087
Auckland 395,070 93% 0 343,631 81% 37,931 423,958
Counties Manukau 423,476 88% 11,020 355,419 74% 79,077 482,773

There was a number of youth on the independant drive that was on the news over the weekend. A few 'I just couldn't be bothered' mixed with some 'once I realised it was going to probably be needed to get into some bars and stuff..'

There were 708 first jabs administered to residents in the Counties Manukau DHB area yesterday, meaning the area still sits on an 88 per cent first-vaccination rate and still needs about 11,000 more jabs to get to 90 per cent.

Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson confirmed earlier today that officials expect Counties Manukau to hit the 90 per cent first vaccination target within the week - meaning second doses across Counties Manukau and the region's two other DHBs should be complete by the end of November.

go Counties!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

they should get the NPC team to go around the burbs ...

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#2801420 26-Oct-2021 15:45

11,000 at under 1k a day is another two weeks, then three weeks between jabs.

Wonder if we'll see that cut down at 4pm back to 2 weeks.

Oblivian

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#2801424 26-Oct-2021 15:48

Guessing there might be some tools being used or planned for him to be that keen and say by end of week. At 700/day that's still 15 days out to get all 11K?

/edit SNAP!

wellygary

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#2801426 26-Oct-2021 15:52

GV27:

11,000 at under 1k a day is another two weeks, then three weeks between jabs.

Wonder if we'll see that cut down at 4pm back to 2 weeks.

It was a long weekend, and by all accounts the weather in Auckland was rubbish...

The target was only set on Friday, and I would expect boatloads of resources to be poured into places like South and West Auckland to get these numbers up...

Will be watching to see if the MoH end up giving the Whanau Ora guys access to more detailed info on low/no vaccination areas...

tdgeek

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#2801427 26-Oct-2021 15:55

wellygary:

Yip, I have a funny feeling that if NSW ( and then VIC) turn out Ok - and NZ gets 90-95% DD , big chunks of the "traffic light" system will be quietly dropped, - with the explanation that they are not needed because we did so well with the vax uptake....

Nothing in NZ is going to change until the end of Nov Cabinet decision and a lot can change over that time

- It might have all gone very pear shaped, but might be a lot better....

As we cannot stop the spread, I feel traffic lights will be well in place for a while, so that while the unvaccinated catch it, the rest of us can be somewhat safer

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