2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2803314 29-Oct-2021 09:55

Geektastic: I have a feeling that the authorities are losing control.

Long term I don't think authorities even want this level of control. It's a burden for everyone.

Surely we are entering a phase of gradual relaxation of controls as vaccination rates come up.

The odd virus flareup does wonders to keep people motivated in the right direction.

MikeB4

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#2803323 29-Oct-2021 10:00

Buster:

Geektastic: I have a feeling that the authorities are losing control.

Long term I don't think authorities even want this level of control. It's a burden for everyone.

Surely we are entering a phase of gradual relaxation of controls as vaccination rates come up.

The odd virus flareup does wonders to keep people motivated in the right direction.

Doesn't do a lot for those who become ill or worse.

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2803332 29-Oct-2021 10:12

trig42:

Batman: Sorry what get out clause? Cheers

The PM said last week they would review where the country was at on the 29th of November, and may move everyone into the Traffic Light System early. I suspect this will all hinge on Tairawhiti and BOP DHBs getting their Vax rates up.

I think they will have to. The 'hikoi' currently camped at Mercer will be nothing compared to a million Aucklanders who want to get out to see family/go to their holiday homes/have Christmas.

Pretty sure she also said Aucklanders would be out for xmas. Possibly only vaxxed and tested ones, but how are they going to police that - no way they can stop everyone at the Bombays, the queue would go back to Albany.

I agree. Aucklanders have been told to book their Christmas holidays. I would be very surprised to have a workable Auckland border the closer we get to Christmas. Traffic light system well before then regardless of vaccination rates. I doubt a vaccination cert will be required to get in or out of Auckland. Vax Certs (or negative covid test result?) are more about ticketed events, flights, some workplace entry, some retail, some hospitality?

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2803336 29-Oct-2021 10:23

MikeB4:

Buster:The odd virus flareup does wonders to keep people motivated in the right direction.

Doesn't do a lot for those who become ill or worse.

Correct. Plenty of people just seem to want to do whatever they want to do and seems pretty frivolous to me when the reasons come out why they went on their journey.

Most of us are just trying to keep out of the way of it as best we can (doing our own risk assessment every time we go out).

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2803388 29-Oct-2021 10:28

Buster:

I agree. Aucklanders have been told to book their Christmas holidays. I would be very surprised to have a workable Auckland border the closer we get to Christmas. Traffic light system well before then regardless of vaccination rates. I doubt a vaccination cert will be required to get in or out of Auckland. Vax Certs (or negative covid test result?) are more about ticketed events, flights, some workplace entry, some retail, some hospitality?

100%. There's no workable way to get every Aucklander who wants to go away a Covid test between Xmas and New Years and there's only three working days to do one.

This is the sort of thing I think the Govt really needs to give some clarity on. To date everything they have said suggests that people "leaving Auckland" will need a vaccine cert AND a negative test.

That just isn't possible.

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2803391 29-Oct-2021 10:39

GV27:

Buster:

I agree. Aucklanders have been told to book their Christmas holidays. I would be very surprised to have a workable Auckland border the closer we get to Christmas. Traffic light system well before then regardless of vaccination rates. I doubt a vaccination cert will be required to get in or out of Auckland. Vax Certs (or negative covid test result?) are more about ticketed events, flights, some workplace entry, some retail, some hospitality?

100%. There's no workable way to get every Aucklander who wants to go away a Covid test between Xmas and New Years and there's only three working days to do one.

This is the sort of thing I think the Govt really needs to give some clarity on. To date everything they have said suggests that people "leaving Auckland" will need a vaccine cert AND a negative test.

That just isn't possible.

Really pushing the 90% vaccination by DHB (for rewards) is still a good public approach for now I think.

Batman

Mad Scientist
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#2803392 29-Oct-2021 10:40

How about just a cert. No vaccine no Christmas?

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ezbee

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Uber Geek

#2803421 29-Oct-2021 11:31

Unless vaccination rates in Rotorua and various 'Holiday' parts of the country change drastically.
I'm not sure what sort of holiday people will have with SARS-Cov2 racing through the unvaccinated.
Random vaccinated, vulnerable going along with them.

ED might be particularly scary if you need treatment for that mountain biking accident.
IT may be a funny old holiday season.

There was a comment on radio last night that Facebook antivax machine has stepped up a gear.
Is there any organisation collecting data for oversight of this 'disservice' ?

Most are usual procrastinating roundtuits, drawn in by very active antivax campaign given unsocial media megaphone.
Story on media about Volt Apartments case, account of their terrible Covid experience, who knew it was a horrible disease ?

Who knew, Such a surprise ... Meanwhile not letting Facebook own the market ...
TikTok’s algorithm shows anti-vaccine videos to children as young as 9, researchers say
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/anti-vaxx-tiktoks-seen-by-kids-teens-2021-10?r=US&IR=T

Plus this.
https://www.alternet.org/2021/09/pureblood-unvaxed-tiktokers-circulate-new-trend-to-promote-vaccine-misinformation/

Oh and this
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2021/10/10/thailand-spike-in-anti-vaccination-tiktok-clips-sparks-concerns

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2803423 29-Oct-2021 11:38

Damnit I liked TikTok a lot more when it was air hostesses/doctors posting dance routines and teenagers flogging meme cryptos.

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2803450 29-Oct-2021 12:02

ezbee:Unless vaccination rates in Rotorua and various 'Holiday' parts of the country change drastically.
I'm not sure what sort of holiday people will have with SARS-Cov2 racing through the unvaccinated.
Random vaccinated, vulnerable going along with them.

ED might be particularly scary if you need treatment for that mountain biking accident.
IT may be a funny old holiday season.

Yes I was thinking that. People of Northland, Coromandel, Taupo, and heaps of other places should complete their vaccination now.

Scott3

3963 posts

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#2803618 29-Oct-2021 13:56

Batman: Headline on stuff this morning
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126816187/covid19-nz-when-will-each-dhb-reach-the-90-per-cent-full-vaccination-target

The chart they have published extremely optimistic.

Default assumption is that first doses continue at their current rate, and worst case selective option is 20% lower. Likely we will see more than 20% decay in case numbers as we run low on willing participants. (baring major policy change that drives a lot more first doses).
The model assumes 100% take rate of second doses right at exactly 3 weeks after the first. 2nd dose take rate was mentioned at a press conference to be 96% (by an arbitrary cut off time after the first dose, which was not specified). - We will need to overshoot 90% on first doses (perhaps go to 92 - 93) - to allow for those that for whatever reason don't have their 2nd dose in a timely way. Even then a 4 - 5 week average dose spacing seems more realistic.

Even with being really optimistic (current 1st dose rate + 3 weeks) model, Counties Manaku won't hit the target to 27th Nov, and the worst DHB from the Rest of NZ won't hit it till 19th Jan.

I think it is pretty clear all this stuff is largely to provide a distraction to cover the fact that the digital vaccine cert isn't available. I strongly suspect that the vaccine cert / traffic light stuff will be rolled out when it is ready, regardless of vaccination level in the DHB's.

Frankly there I can't see a good reason to delay vaccine certs because of low vaccination levels. If anything they are more important in a poorly vaccinated area. And they are a great tool to boost vaccination rates, so ASAP would be good.

Oblivian

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#2803627 29-Oct-2021 14:06

Scott3:

I think it is pretty clear all this stuff is largely to provide a distraction to cover the fact that the digital vaccine cert isn't available. I strongly suspect that the vaccine cert / traffic light stuff will be rolled out when it is ready, regardless of vaccination level in the DHB's.

Not the only one.

Perhaps not the same direct reasoning. But reaching the 2 different goalposts sets - one is super easy, assuming it's done properly. The other is wayyyyy off the mark looking at current uptake.

HelloThere

169 posts

Master Geek

#2803630 29-Oct-2021 14:11

125 cases. As of 10:00am, 74 of today's cases are linked. 29 household contacts and 51 remain under investigation.

118 - Auckland

4 - Waikato (3 Te Awamutu/Kihikihi. 1 Otorohanga)

1 - Northland

2 - Canterbury

Northland case is a household contact and was isolating.

Oblivian

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#2803633 29-Oct-2021 14:15

Thinking of how 'the other half' mind works. I wonder how many people out there, were/are fence sitter hesitant. Got to the edge of the cliff and hung their toes over. Just waiting for some wind to be pushed off balance.. saw that the rates that have been brandished so frequently on headlines etc are 'almost' there for a few in the final 'you can do it!' stories.

And then thought.. you know what. I won't take one for the team. I truest the next person can fill that spot instead.

If you get too many like that. It'll be deflating.

Like, Canterbury has hit 90% firsts now. It was down to tripple digits after yesterdays numbers doubled/spiked. So wonder how many in the remaining 10 around the place go sweet. Don't need to anymore afterrall.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2803634 29-Oct-2021 14:16

The number of first doses had dropped 10,908 , but I note that yesterdays had a 17% increase to 12,780
Reaction to Christchurch outbreak ? Something for Psychology Fangirls and Boys to chew on.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations

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