2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2807808 5-Nov-2021 07:20

mattwnz: ^^. This has been an ongoing problem. The fact that they are not cutting back the press conferences makes it even more difficult for the media to extract this information from them during question time. Imo they should be fronting everyday while parts of the country are in lockdown.

To add to this we also had the scenario yesterday that with conflicting information from Ardern, then Hipkins, and then Robertson about the Auckland border and Xmas being cancelled that (if you're to believe media reporting this) that everybody related to the Covid response was suddenly unavailable yesterday afternoon for media interviews.

The next few weeks are going to be some of the most testing times of this whole pandemic, especially with the legal issues surrounding MIQ on top of this.

GV27

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#2807811 5-Nov-2021 07:34

sbiddle:

BUT if the whole country did move to the traffic light system at the same time it will mean Auckland's borders will go (or at least that's what was said several weeks ago). If that goes it poses the question of what colour each part of the country will start in.

Wonder if the more palatable situation will be Auckland's border goes but they go up around the other bits that haven't gone to 90%.

Could be a nice way to side-step the potential issue of Iwi roadblocks, which I'm not sure we've heard the end of.

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#2807868 5-Nov-2021 07:53

sbiddle
There is nothing I've read or heard anywhere that would suggest that is about to happen.

BUT if the whole country did move to the traffic light system at the same time it will mean Auckland's borders will go (or at least that's what was said several weeks ago). If that goes it poses the question of what colour each part of the country will start in.

The majority of the releases in October 22 as the modelling had them reached 'by Christmas'.

The rest of the country will move into the framework when each individual DHB hits a target of 90 per cent.

Cabinet will review vaccination progress on November 29 and make further decisions then.

Essentially. Foot in it target portrayed

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#2807882 5-Nov-2021 08:13

I see the winner of the 2021 biggest doom merchant award Shaun Hendy says we'll likely spend most of 2022 in the traffic light system in the red colour..

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018819277/covid-19-nz-could-spend-most-of-2022-at-traffic-light-red-level-hendy

2022 is going to be tough for many people in this new normal world but god he's such a negative person. He's hardly inspiring people.

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#2807885 5-Nov-2021 08:20

sbiddle:

He's hardly inspiring people.

That's not his job though, is it? Do we want to set a precedent where we only hear from academics or journalists who make us feel good about ourselves?

GV27

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#2807911 5-Nov-2021 09:45

Covid in the wastewater in the Naki, apparently, with low vaccination rates.

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#2807924 5-Nov-2021 10:10

there is only one question to answer for non AKL

- will the rest of the country get covid for Christmas or New Year?

for AKLers the question is

- will we be treated like the rest of the country before Christmas or after New Year?

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#2807925 5-Nov-2021 10:10

GV27:

sbiddle:

He's hardly inspiring people.

That's not his job though, is it? Do we want to set a precedent where we only hear from academics or journalists who make us feel good about ourselves?

it might be his job but he has never been right once so i wonder why the media put so much weight on what he says.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2807939 5-Nov-2021 10:29

vexxxboy:

it might be his job but he has never been right once so i wonder why the media put so much weight on what he says.

Because he feeds into the government response?

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#2807946 5-Nov-2021 10:50

Oblivian:

The majority of the releases in October 22 as the modelling had them reached 'by Christmas'.

The rest of the country will move into the framework when each individual DHB hits a target of 90 per cent.

Cabinet will review vaccination progress on November 29 and make further decisions then.

Essentially. Foot in it target portrayed

Absolutely. If the targets were firm, what is a point of a cabinet meeting to review progress. If the targets were firm, the decision would have already been made by cabinet, so no reason to cover the same ground again.

In the answers to journalists after the alert level arrangement, it was made pritty clear by the PM that the targets were soft, and that a DHB was nearly there etc, they would probiably just move anyway.

Frank once the vaccine certificate system is ready I can't see any reason to delay starting using it until we reach super high vaccination rates. If anything, it's introduction will drive a surge in vaccination. - The fully vaccinated are getting increasingly frustrated at the vaccination laggards holding them back.

Hopefully the authorities use today's press conference to push the message: "Last change to get your 1st dose this weekend, if you to assure yourself of full access to businesses - as we could potentially introduce the traffic light system on the 29th".

There would be substantial messaging simplicity by moving the country all at once (But the government may want a staged system to manage load on the likes of real me verification etc, as millions of people sign up for the certificate system)

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#2807953 5-Nov-2021 11:03

sbiddle:

I see the winner of the 2021 biggest doom merchant award Shaun Hendy says we'll likely spend most of 2022 in the traffic light system in the red colour..

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018819277/covid-19-nz-could-spend-most-of-2022-at-traffic-light-red-level-hendy

2022 is going to be tough for many people in this new normal world but god he's such a negative person. He's hardly inspiring people.

I didn't listen to the audio, but the text includes:

"But Covid-19 modeller Shaun Hendy also says vaccinating children could dramatically reduce that."

Given the FDA approval of the 5 - 11 year old vaccine, it seems probable we will be vaccinating this age group in the next couple of months.

I find your criticism of negativity a bit harsh. A modeler should be simply be building the most realistic models they can. - Clearly he was unwilling to include 5 - 11 year olds getting vaccinated as this is not yet locked in for NZ.

Also, for the vaccianted "Red" isn't actually that bad. Pritty much everything is up running. Capacity cap of 100 should be workable for most settings other than events.

Only big difference between red and orange for the vaccinated, is the removal of the 100 person limit, and a commitment that regional boundary restrictions will NOT apply.

I am picking that covid-19 will be fairly spread across the north island by the end of the month, so keeping border restrictions will be hard to justify keeping an Auckland border. - Possibly some areas with poor vaccine coverage could be put into red, and have a border for their own protection, but this is only workable for places with few roads in and out.

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#2807965 5-Nov-2021 11:32

Press release:

The addition of another drug to the suite of COVID-19 medicines available in New Zealand is good news for patients and for the health system, the Government says.

“Preventing people from getting COVID-19 in the first place, through vaccinations, social distancing and mask-wearing, is still the best protection for people and for keeping the health system free for those who need it,” Health Minister Andrew Little said.

“But we need medicines for those who do get sick, which is why I am very pleased that the national pharmaceuticals-buying agency Pharmac has secured supplies of another drug shown to work against the COVID-19 virus.

“Baricitinib is the fifth drug Pharmac has secured, and sits alongside remdesivir, tocilizumab, molnupiravir and Ronapreve as treatments doctors can turn to to help people with a range of COVID-19 symptoms.

“Like tocilizumab, baricitinib can be used to treat patients who are very sick, as it reduces the severity of symptoms and cuts time in hospital and reduces the likelihood of death.

“Pharmac expects to receive 500 doses of baricitinib this month, which is important because there is a global shortage of tocilizumab and this gives clinicians another option,” Andrew Little said.

Money for all five medicines will come from the Government’s COVID-19 fund. It has yet to be approved by Medsafe for use against COVID-19, but clinicians will be able to use it straight away under Section 25 of the Medicines Act.

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GV27

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#2807966 5-Nov-2021 11:33

Scott3:

I am picking that covid-19 will be fairly spread across the north island by the end of the month, so keeping border restrictions will be hard to justify keeping an Auckland border. - Possibly some areas with poor vaccine coverage could be put into red, and have a border for their own protection, but this is only workable for places with few roads in and out.

Still confident Auckland won't have a border, unless they want Dirty Mary, Crazy Larry style chases up and down the Seabird Coast

FineWine

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#2807988 5-Nov-2021 12:46

Scott3:

I am picking that covid-19 will be fairly spread across the north island by the end of the month, so keeping border restrictions will be hard to justify keeping an Auckland border. - Possibly some areas with poor vaccine coverage could be put into red, and have a border for their own protection, but this is only workable for places with few roads in and out.

Luckily the Bay of Plenty can be fairly well ring fenced with only 5 major routes in & out.

Hwy 2 from the north through to Opotiki where it turns south at the junction of Hwy 35 from around the East Cape headland there.

Hwy 29 over the Kaimai's

Hwy's 33 & 36 coming up from Rotorua

So far we have been lucky with only one case at Katikati in October. Our vaccine rates are 84% & 70% which are not crash hot.

So I would rather go Orange or even Green with Hard Regional boundary restrictions on those 5 entry points. No Jab not entry.

EDIT: Katikati case retested and came back negative two days later. So no positive cases in the BoP 😷

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

GV27

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#2807990 5-Nov-2021 12:51

FineWine:

So I would rather go Orange or even Green with Hard Regional boundary restrictions on those 5 entry points. No Jab not entry.

Would have to be no jab no exit either. And should be signposted now so those individual regions can get their plans together or their rates up.

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