2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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366 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2831490 13-Dec-2021 14:25

I suspect we need to follow the UK and reduce our booster gap to three months.

We probably need to further bolster our work force and get on with it.

Once Omicron hits, you are essentially out of time from day zero you are in this exponential race against a two and a half day doubling enemy. A roll out cannot at the current settings keep up with that speed.

Certainly these are the signals coming out of the UK.

Omicron is like other variants in an unvaccinated system (purely in terms of break through case numbers not health outcomes).

Omicron looks suspiciously like going back to the drawing board in terms of needing to stop a temporary health system collapse by virtue of this all at once effect.

Just keep swimming...

quickymart

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#2831491 13-Dec-2021 14:39

I thought Omnicron had less severe symptoms than Delta, and could result in coronavirus just sputtering out of existence - or is my information out of date (from Newshub + the Herald)?

wellygary

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#2831494 13-Dec-2021 14:50

quickymart:

I thought Omnicron had less severe symptoms than Delta, and could result in coronavirus just sputtering out of existence - or is my information out of date (from Newshub + the Herald)?

No one knows (yet) !

The growth in "mild cases" could be a mathematical quirk of those who are vaccinated and may have not become infected at all from Delta,... thus they are also pushing up the total number of infections...The % of Severe infections will fall as share, but there maybe many more as the total number of cases jump...

but YMMV ( by a lot)

Sup

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Ultimate Geek
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#2831496 13-Dec-2021 14:55

quickymart:

I thought Omnicron had less severe symptoms than Delta, and could result in coronavirus just sputtering out of existence - or is my information out of date (from Newshub + the Herald)?

That is the way it looks in South Africa.

Generally seems to be less severe.

The problem is not knowing what happens when it comes up against two shot vaccine immunity (in terms of severity) and people with no immunity all at once. Lab tests are claiming that only 21% of vaccinated people with two shots, will be symptom free.

It is believed (extremely likely) that two shot vaccines will see milder symptoms anyway.

The UK alarming models take into account a less severe disease, the issue being that since it spreads so fast, you are talking tens of millions of break through cases and unvaccinated cases over there.

New Zealand faces a similar threat, thanks to small capacity in the health care system.

If Half a million or more Kiwis can get infected in a couple of months, then you can see how even a milder illness would generate a overwhelming tsunami.

Divide the UKs latest best case modelling by ten (crude per capita comparison) over a five month period, that would equate to seventeen thousand hospital admissions.

Clearly we have a much higher vaccine rate.

However the scale of Omicrons speed is going to be problematic even if we only saw a quarter of the projected UK admission rates per capita over a 5 month Omicron wave.

All guess work.

But to me it says (I am sure this is happening now) that our experts will be talking about a faster shot three roll out (after which we will be fine).

With three shots Omicron will not be a problem. We just have to either keep it out of the country a long time or boost earlier.....imo ideally both. I do however have faith in our health boffins so I won't second guess their final consideration in all of this.

Really we are mostly talking a problem for the unvaccinated. That group are a big number for our small health system. Kids included.

That group is large enough, if Omicron as it seems can hit all of them in under six months, to cause significant issues.

Add the people with break through infections.

Weight those numbers against an in home care model. We are not going to be able to process the daily contacts at omicron levels.

Consider the impact on supply chains with a million citizens having some form of brief flu like illness.

Lots to think about, we need to keep watching Aussie.

Just keep swimming...

Rikkitic

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#2831498 13-Dec-2021 14:59

quickymart:

I'm terrible like that, in the above scenario I would say to any antivaxxers (including family) "I told you so" without any qualms at all. More like "maybe you should have listened to the science, not the former chemist?"

:(

I have friends I love who are far down the rabbit hole. I don't think anything anyone could say, including me, could change their minds. If they do become ill, I will give them all the sympathy and support I can.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

quickymart

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#2831505 13-Dec-2021 15:11

And that's probably what makes me a bad person 🙁

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Rikkitic

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#2831509 13-Dec-2021 15:26

quickymart:

And that's probably what makes me a bad person 🙁

I doubt it. Most people aren't. We do different things for different reasons.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Batman

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#2831583 13-Dec-2021 16:17

headline says Auckland moving to Orange for new years eve

Oblivian

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#2831585 13-Dec-2021 16:18

Yeah someone here had there ESP turned well earlier today :)

Auckland will move to the orange traffic light setting at 11.59pm on Thursday, December 30.

"Cautious optimism" is how PM Jacinda Ardern described the city's falling Covid case numbers under the traffic light system while announcing the shift.

kyhwana2

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#2831587 13-Dec-2021 16:21

quickymart:

I thought Omnicron had less severe symptoms than Delta, and could result in coronavirus just sputtering out of existence - or is my information out of date (from Newshub + the Herald)?

Only for vaccinated + boosted people. (2x doses less effective than 3) https://scitechdaily.com/covid-omicron-variant-may-have-significant-capability-to-evade-vaccine-protection-even-from-third-dose/

Geektastic

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#2831599 13-Dec-2021 16:34

Oblivian:
Yeah someone here had there ESP turned well earlier today :)

Auckland will move to the orange traffic light setting at 11.59pm on Thursday, December 30.

"Cautious optimism" is how PM Jacinda Ardern described the city's falling Covid case numbers under the traffic light system while announcing the shift.

On New Year's Eve? That strikes me as possibly foolish.

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alexx

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Ultimate Geek
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#2831620 13-Dec-2021 17:09

MikeB4:

In some ways the divisions that are developing in Aotearoa mirror the treatment of the Gay community when Aids first appeared. The anger mirrors that of the anti springbok tour, anti nuclear, climate change and is showing again in the Groundswell protests.

Words like "polarised" and "division" suggest a society divided into roughly equal parts. This was probably true for the springbok tours in the 1970s and 1981.

But the high rate of vaccination (which was already high before any vaccine mandates) suggests that this is not the case now. That doesn't mean that the concerns of the unvaccinated should be ignored. There are some people that have been feed a constant stream of misinformation from social media and from people they know. These people should not be treated like they are the enemy.

But there are also a number of very vocal people, many who are almost certainly vaccinated themselves, that find it politically advantageous to claim there is no freedom, or claim that the country has become divided. Some of them are not even based in NZ, but are pursuing some global political objective. The existence of those people does not mean we have a divided society and we don't need to give them a platform to help them in their efforts to divide the country.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

HelloThere

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#2831645 13-Dec-2021 17:47

quickymart:

And that's probably what makes me a bad person 🙁

I say each to their own. I know family / friends that won't get it and I treat them exactly as I always would. Still go to their house and meet them in town. This dividing NZ needs to stop and we need to support each other. The more people are pushed away and excluded the more they'll push back.

ezbee

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#2831661 13-Dec-2021 18:13

1,193 new 1st vaccinations yesterday, it appears the pace is very snail like for the rest.
I suppose it will only be the when 4 week paid holiday runs out that we might see a boost ?

With about 25% of the population the virus can work on unvaccinated.
Mainly, children, but,
Something like 300K in the eligible but won't camp who may be in groups that gather, actively ignore restrictions.

So we shall see how this progresses has Auckland reached an equilibrium of cases vs mobility ?

Like Victoria seems to be at a steady state, 1100-1200 cases a day, 11,649 active cases.
Hospitalized stuck in 200 to a bit over 300 range
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-13/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100694774

alasta

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#2831718 13-Dec-2021 19:14

HelloThere:

quickymart:

And that's probably what makes me a bad person 🙁

I say each to their own. I know family / friends that won't get it and I treat them exactly as I always would. Still go to their house and meet them in town. This dividing NZ needs to stop and we need to support each other. The more people are pushed away and excluded the more they'll push back.

My concern is that people tend to become more radicalised as they become more socially isolated.

If these angry and poorly educated people become totally excluded from mainstream society then there is a risk that they will become increasingly anti-social and violent.

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