2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2835095 17-Dec-2021 21:33

Oblivian:
ezbee:

Whats up with Jetstar ?

BS all-around

They knew they were out to make trouble. All 10 had 'exemptions' so police were powerless. As was the ability of staff to boot them off as a breach of terms of ticketing.
Because noone took control of the exemption process. Others abuse it to their gain

And one wonders why legitimate users get abused.

I would take a guess and say I've had anti maskers (where I've actually seen them) on probably at least 20 of my flights this year. Even in recent months when I've been to Auckland in L3 and L4 there have been the odd one on flights.

Exemptions are perfectly legal - including the downloadable print at home ones. We know the Govt and MoH have truly made truly dumb decisions this pandemic, and mask exemptions sit right near the top of that list.

I even had one sitting next to me a few months ago and was powerless to do anything. If I'd complained Air NZ would have just made me move.

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#2835100 17-Dec-2021 21:51

sbiddle:

So he's pretty much claiming vaccines are a complete and utter waste of time and don't work? Because that being the case is the only way his numbers can be anywhere even close to being correct.

It's a pure numerical model, so picks up all the limitations that go with that. The most obvious being:

Shows infinite trend. At some point population constraints will cap case numbers.
Doesn't consider the impact of containment measures such as lock down's, booster vaccines etc.

His NZ model includes the impact of our projected vaccine roll out (first two doses only), but I assume was dropped from the NSW model due to approaching saturation point for vaccines (first 2 doses).

Should not that for omicron, effectiveness of two pfizer doses drops top about 33% (down from 80% pre-omicron) - and number is worse than that for those who's 2nd dose was more than a few months ago, so the two dose vaccines don't do very much to stop people getting infected. They do give a 70% reduction in hospitalization.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-14/pfizer-stops-70-omicron-hospitalizations-in-south-african-study

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#2835121 17-Dec-2021 22:12

on 7 news today there was a professor in Victoria saying IF omicron is mild then you can use it to get out of the pandemic by infecting everyone with it and that's the end of covid

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#2835133 17-Dec-2021 22:59

NSW hospitalization numbers are starting to increase, even though it is only a few days into their spike.

Last three days are : 166, 192, 215

We are in a very fortunate potion of being able to watch and learn, then shape out response to omicron on learning from other countries.

Should note that we probably don't have very long until we get a MIQ leak. Aussie MIQ had a leak ratio of something like 1 in every 200 cases. Omicron is about 4 times more contagious. As such I would expect a mean time between leaks to be something like 50 cases. We are already up to 4 cases in MIQ, and I would expect a flood more cases given booming numbers globally. I would be surprised if we got to the end of January without Omicron in the community (assuming we pause self isolation from aussie).

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#2835137 17-Dec-2021 23:19

wellygary:

Not great news from NSW 2200 new cases That's up from just 300 4 days ago...

...

No just NSW on the rise. Local cases in every main AU jurisdiction yesterday (except of course WA* ...). Including over 60 in SA.

(*and Morrison would probably question whether they are really a part of the union any more? 😀)

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#2835139 17-Dec-2021 23:31

sbiddle:
alexx:

The current NSW projections from Chris Billington are for 100,000 cases per day by early January and if we extend that line further, then perhaps 1 million a day later in the month (at which point the entire state gets infected in a week).

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

Even if the real numbers are much lower, the number of active cases could be huge and the result will be a severely overloaded health system in NSW, or any place that receives travellers from NSW or other parts of the world with large numbers of Omicron cases in the community.

Even if the death toll from Omicron is very much lower than other variants, the testing system could be completely overloaded. Medical staff and patients will be waiting a long time to know which variant they are dealing with in each case. Do they assume Delta and accept huge numbers of patients into hospitals, or assume Omicron and tell people they will probably be o.k. to recover at home?

Thankfully we have an MIQ system that can filter out at least some cases and give us a little more time to prepare.

So he's pretty much claiming vaccines are a complete and utter waste of time and don't work? Because that being the case is the only way his numbers can be anywhere even close to being correct.

Sigh. He’s not claiming anything. It’s a purely mathematical model. He makes no pretence of it being anything else.

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#2835222 18-Dec-2021 09:42

Fiance of the man in the below article has shared the first page of the coroners report.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127140667/unexpected-death-of-cool-kiwi-bloke-rory-nairn-under-investigation

Obviously a tragic outcome in this case.

And a very real reminder, to take serious vaccine side effects seriously and to seek medical help. (and perhaps beyond that to seek medical help for anything weird going on with your heart, regardless of vaccination timing).

Sup

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#2835227 18-Dec-2021 10:27

Probably the vaccine though we will never know for certain. Could be coincidental myocarditis.

I do not get why he did not have an ECG, and after weeks of palpitations and chest pain why there was no repeat ECG, that part makes no sense to me.

Just keep swimming...

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#2835231 18-Dec-2021 10:50

Sup:

Probably the vaccine though we will never know for certain. Could be coincidental myocarditis.

I do not get why he did not have an ECG, and after weeks of palpitations and chest pain why there was no repeat ECG, that part makes no sense to me.

Pathologist said "... is consistent with vaccine -related myocarditis"

That is about the strongest wording such experts use in formal documents - Seems very unlikely it was coincidental.

Obviously tragic outcome from not seeking medical help, Sadly we have a bit of a culture in younger males to pretend everything is fine, even if it is not.

[edit] - should also note the urgent letter sent by Ashly Bloomfield yesterday, instructing those getting vaccinated be advised of this rare risk, and to seek medical help if they have any issues.

Should also note that rare risk of myocarditis originally was described as a 1:1,000,000 risk, and now is being described as a 1:33,000 risk. So it seems the risk was originally understated (but still remains a very rare side effect).

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#2835236 18-Dec-2021 11:27

Oh dear God, I can see the antivaxxers having an absolute field day with this...

Sup

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#2835237 18-Dec-2021 11:28

Scott3:

Sup:

Probably the vaccine though we will never know for certain. Could be coincidental myocarditis.

I do not get why he did not have an ECG, and after weeks of palpitations and chest pain why there was no repeat ECG, that part makes no sense to me.

Pathologist said "... is consistent with vaccine -related myocarditis"

That is about the strongest wording such experts use in formal documents - Seems very unlikely it was coincidental.

Obviously tragic outcome from not seeking medical help, Sadly we have a bit of a culture in younger males to pretend everything is fine, even if it is not.

[edit] - should also note the urgent letter sent by Ashly Bloomfield yesterday, instructing those getting vaccinated be advised of this rare risk, and to seek medical help if they have any issues.

Should also note that rare risk of myocarditis originally was described as a 1:1,000,000 risk, and now is being described as a 1:33,000 risk. So it seems the risk was originally understated (but still remains a very rare side effect).

Seems extremely likely.

As we all know, someone who is at risk of myocarditis has a real concern around being affected by a Covid infection too....a higher incidence than vaccine induced myocarditis hey.

Just keep swimming...

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Sup

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#2835287 18-Dec-2021 15:21

Batman:

on 7 news today there was a professor in Victoria saying IF omicron is mild then you can use it to get out of the pandemic by infecting everyone with it and that's the end of covid

The burn out theory only works, if the pan contact phenomena eventually carries omicron from patient zero to patient 8 billion.

Until that happens....until every single human being on the planet gets linked through the hundreds of thousands of pockets people live in...then Delta will just lie in wait for omicron to burn through all of its fuel and die out....Delta enters stage left....and as we know....Delta only needs a small distant pocket to make a come back from.

There are a lot of assumptions being made about omicron.

The biggest being that it would confer immunity to Delta and all other Covid strains...and more importantly that this omicron immunity would last long enough to guarantee the extinction of Delta too.

Well what about immuno compromised patients? what about the person who contracts Delta the day of the last official recorded omicron case because they did not develop any meaningful immunity to omicron (at the moment the thinking is that during Delta as many as 20% of the population mount no meaningful defence).

I am not having a go, I love this idea you posted, but I have been playing Covid Kungfu with it for a few days and I see some interesting thought experiment challenges to it.

I think the current obsession with omicron has diverted the worlds attention from the reality, the reality being that we have two incredibly infectious pathogens from the same family in very big numbers circulating at the same time.,..I think we would be fool hardy to take our eyes off Delta.

Yes Omicron goes so fast it may prove self limiting and go extinct, but this does not guarantee it will take Delta down with it.

Some Island somewhere that keeps Omicron out....the whole time it rages.....might protect Covids existence through a slower burning Delta pool..perhaps that Island might be called the North Island or some equally poetically challenged anguage...imagine if Omicron never gets there.

Then one day from the lone Island in the South Pacific, an expat from India flies from the island back to the home country and lands coughing in Delhi "Delta comes home" 2022 movie release four red stars on rotten tomatoes.

Just keep swimming...

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#2835307 18-Dec-2021 17:45

Sup:

There are a lot of assumptions being made about omicron.

The biggest being that it would confer immunity to Delta and all other Covid strains...and more importantly that this omicron immunity would last long enough to guarantee the extinction of Delta too.

This is what I have been thinking. Two of the existing endemic coronaviruses, 229E and NL63, appear to be genetically related and yet they have continued to circulate in parallel for centuries. The same thing may occur with Delta and Omicron.

bazzer

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#2835314 18-Dec-2021 19:23

sbiddle:

It was good that you made the call to get it because after 6 months like me you basically had pretty minimal protection.

That is just not true. Every person's immune response is different and while we can make generalizations, it's not accurate to say that an individual's protection wanes over a specified time period.

DS248

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#2835345 18-Dec-2021 23:45

Pfizer's child-sized vaccine fails to produce expected immunity in kids under 5.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/17/health/pfizer-vaccine-children/index.html

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